On a periodic dividend barrier strategy in the dual model with continuous monitoring of solvency

postprin

Studies on a Double Poisson-Geometric Insurance Risk Model with Interference

This paper mainly studies a generalized double Poisson-Geometric insurance risk model. By martingale and stopping time approach, we obtain adjustment coefficient equation, the Lundberg inequality, and the formula for the ruin probability. Also the Laplace transformation of the time when the surplus reaches a given level for the first time is discussed, and the expectation and its variance are obtained. Finally, we give the numerical examples

Options analysis--an innovative tool for manufacturing decision-making

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1995, and Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Materials Science & Engineering, 1995.Includes bibliographical references (p. 78-99).by Craig Spencer Belnap.M.S

Real options theory applied to decision making in health care : a series of case studies

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Columbia Sportswear Company : equity valuation

The aim of this Thesis is to evaluate Columbia Sportswear Company’s stock at 31 December 2014. In this way, to apply the most adjustable methodology I carry out a research among consensual valuation models. I conclude for company’s case DCF-WACC and Relative Valuation are the appropriate ones. Over the recent years, it is seen that company’s positive performance in global outdoor market increased market share. Being future perspectives optimistic resulting in a price target of US$61,21. Difference between market price, US$ 44,54, and price target led me to recommend a Buy position for Columbia Sportswear’s stock. A sensitivity analysis for the most critical variables was done and I note that WACC and perpetuity growth variations highly affect DCF-WACC model output. Regarding, comparison with Goldman Sachs we achieved similar investment recommendation

Options, volatility and simulations.

by Veronica Ho Pui Kwan.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1997.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 99-103).Prologue --- p.1Chapter Essay I: --- Examination of the GARCH Option Pricing Model in the case of Hang Seng Index OptionChapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.4Chapter 2. --- Holes' in the Black-Scholes Model --- p.7Chapter 3. --- A Big 'Hole' -- Varying Volatility --- p.14Chapter 4. --- A Remedy : the GARCH Option Pricing Model --- p.31Chapter 5. --- Research Methodology and Data --- p.38Chapter 6. --- Empirical Results --- p.50Chapter 7. --- Conclusion --- p.67Chapter Essay II: --- Barrier OptionsChapter 1. --- Introduction on Barrier Option --- p.70Chapter 2. --- Pricing Models --- p.74Chapter 3. --- Hedging of Barrier Option --- p.81Chapter 4. --- Examination of a Down-and-Out Put Option --- p.88References --- p.9

Options valuation.

This paper deals with the option-pricing problem. In the first part of the paper we study in details the discrete setting of the option-pricing problem usually referred to as the binomial scheme. We highlight basic differences between the old and the new approaches. The main qualitative distinction of the new pricing approach from either binomial or Black Scholes’s is that it represents the option price as a stochastic process. This stochastic interpretation can not give straightforward advantage for an investor due to stochastic setting of the pricing problem. The new approach explicitly states that the options price is more risky than represented by binomial scheme or Black Scholes theory. To highlight the difference between stochastic and deterministic option price definitions note that if a deterministic value is interpreted as a perfect or fair price we can comment that the stochastic interpretation provides this number or any other with the probability that real world option value at maturity will be bellow chosen number. This probability is a pricing risk of the option. Thus with an investor’s motivation of the option pricing the stochastic approach gives information about the risk taking. The investor analyzing option price and corresponding risk makes a decision to purchase the option or not. Continuous setting will be considered in the second part of the paper following [1]. A significant conclusion can be drawn from the new approach. It is shown that either binomial or Black-Scholes solutions of the option pricing problem have serious drawbacks. In particular, the binomial scheme establishes the unique price for a stock that takes two values and strike price K, Sd

Measuring a firm's economic profitability: a study of the measurement of a firm's economic profitability with proposals for, and evaluations of, an ex post measure, return on total capital employed (ROTCE), and an ex ante measure, a modified version of Tobin's q (modq) employing current earnings in lieu of capital employed

Despite its significance for industrial economics, utility regulation and competition policy, the measurement of the economic profitability of a firm remains a relatively underresearched area. The difference between the Accounting Rate of Return (ARR), measured on a net replacement cost or current cost basis, and a firm's estimated risk adjusted cost of capital is favoured by many economic researchers and is widely employed in utility regulation, but strong claims have been made for Tobin's q (q - the ratio of the market value of a firm's securities to the cost of replicating the firm, often identified with the net replacement cost of its net assets). Both measures have shortcomings. Davis and Kay have drawn attention to, but have failed to fully explain, a bias in ARR when firms buy in goods and services. Bias in q due to the omission of hidden capital can be significant. In this paper, economic profitability is identified with a firm's input-output ratio expressed in present value terms, and with the internal rate of return on a firm's expenditure in the accounting year, both revenue and capital. In the case of ex Post profitability, the last two measures are shown to be equivalent. Departures from the form of these ideal measures explains the biases in both ARR and q. Employing the Capital Asset Pricing Model, two alternative, operational measures of a firm's economic profitability are derived from the ideal measures with a view to eliminating the biases in q and ARR. The ex post measure is called here the Return on Total Capital Employed (ROTCE) and the ex ante measure is called here modified Tobin's q (modq). ROTCE is appraised using data from a simple corporate model. modq is appraised using data extracted from the accounts of companies comprising the Buildings Materials and Food Manufacturing sectors of the FTA All Share Index. In this study, I/modq and 1/q are shown to be significantly correlated at the 95t confidence level, and some 45k of the difference between them can be associated with taxation effects. Associating market power with the product of Beta and the Return on Sales, 1/modq is found to be significantly related at the 95t confidence level with market power and wages deflated by market value

Options valuation.

This paper deals with the option-pricing problem. In the first part of the paper we study in details the discrete setting of the option-pricing problem usually referred to as the binomial scheme. We highlight basic differences between the old and the new approaches. The main qualitative distinction of the new pricing approach from either binomial or Black Scholes’s is that it represents the option price as a stochastic process. This stochastic interpretation can not give straightforward advantage for an investor due to stochastic setting of the pricing problem. The new approach explicitly states that the options price is more risky than represented by binomial scheme or Black Scholes theory. To highlight the difference between stochastic and deterministic option price definitions note that if a deterministic value is interpreted as a perfect or fair price we can comment that the stochastic interpretation provides this number or any other with the probability that real world option value at maturity will be bellow chosen number. This probability is a pricing risk of the option. Thus with an investor’s motivation of the option pricing the stochastic approach gives information about the risk taking. The investor analyzing option price and corresponding risk makes a decision to purchase the option or not. Continuous setting will be considered in the second part of the paper following [1]. A significant conclusion can be drawn from the new approach. It is shown that either binomial or Black-Scholes solutions of the option pricing problem have serious drawbacks. In particular, the binomial scheme establishes the unique price for a stock that takes two values and strike price K, Sd < K < Su. According the binomial scheme this ‘fair’ price does not depends on real probabilities. Thus two options with that promise fixed income at maturity with probability close to 1 or 0 do have the same price. This of course does not have any sense. From this follows that there is no sense in using either neutral probabilities or ‘neutral world’ in options applications for valuation interest rates or credit derivatives either theoretically or numerically. Recall that Black Scholes’ approach was introduced in [2] and then later the binomial scheme was published [3]. Here we first represent discrete scheme. In several examples we discuss two-period plain vanilla option valuation. Note that the scheme can be applied for arbitrary states of a security over one step market. Then we extend the discrete scheme over an application to exotic option-pricing referred to as a compound option. The compound option in Black Scholes setting was first studied in [4] and then in [5,6]

Valuation of general GMWB annuities in a low interest rate environment

Variable annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefits (GMWB) entitle the policy holder to periodic withdrawals together with a terminal payoff linked to the performance of an equity fund. In this paper, we consider the valuation of a general class of GMWB annuities, allowing for step-up, bonus and surrender features, taking also into account mortality risk and death benefits. When dynamic withdrawals are allowed, the valuation of GMWB annuities leads to a stochastic optimal control problem, which we address here by dynamic programming techniques. Adopting a Hull-White interest rate model, correlated with the equity fund, we propose an efficient tree-based algorithm. We perform a thorough analysis of the determinants of the market value of GMWB annuities and of the optimal withdrawal strategies. In particular, we study the impact of a low/negative interest rate environment. Our findings indicate that low/negative rates profoundly affect the optimal withdrawal behaviour and, in combination with step-up and bonus features, increase significantly the fair values of GMWB annuities, which can only be compensated by large management fees