Grosch's law: a statistical illusion?.

In this paper a central law on economies of scale in computer hardware pricing, Grosch's law is discussed. The history and various validation efforts are examined in detail. It is shown how the last set of validations during the eighties may be interpreted as a statistical misinterpretation, although this effect may have been present in all validation attempts, including the earliest ones. Simulation experiments reveal that constant returns to scale in combination with decreasing computer prices may give the illusion of Grosch's law when performing regression models against computer prices over many years. The paper also shows how the appropriate definition of computer capacity, and in particular Kleinrock's power definition, plays a central role in economies of scale for computer prices.Law;

CMOL: Second Life for Silicon?

This report is a brief review of the recent work on architectures for the prospective hybrid CMOS/nanowire/ nanodevice ("CMOL") circuits including digital memories, reconfigurable Boolean-logic circuits, and mixed-signal neuromorphic networks. The basic idea of CMOL circuits is to combine the advantages of CMOS technology (including its flexibility and high fabrication yield) with the extremely high potential density of molecular-scale two-terminal nanodevices. Relatively large critical dimensions of CMOS components and the "bottom-up" approach to nanodevice fabrication may keep CMOL fabrication costs at affordable level. At the same time, the density of active devices in CMOL circuits may be as high as 1012 cm2 and that they may provide an unparalleled information processing performance, up to 1020 operations per cm2 per second, at manageable power consumption.Comment: Submitted on behalf of TIMA Editions (http://irevues.inist.fr/tima-editions

A Model for Internet Traffic Growth

A simple model that let us predict the doubling time of Internet traffic ispresented. The growth of this traffic depends on three factors, that is the doublingtime of the number of users that are online, the doubling time of the time that theyspend online and the doubling time of the bandwidth provided to the end user bytelecommunication networks. The first and the second depend primarily on marketingstrategies while the last one depends on Moore's Law. In 2006 in Europe these threedoubling times led to an expected doubling time for the traffic on the Internet ofroughly 1.2 years. The real value of the doubling time of the traffic of a group ofEuropean Internet Exchanges agrees well with the expected value

Technology Directions for the 21st Century, volume 1

For several decades, semiconductor device density and performance have been doubling about every 18 months (Moore's Law). With present photolithography techniques, this rate can continue for only about another 10 years. Continued improvement will need to rely on newer technologies. Transition from the current micron range for transistor size to the nanometer range will permit Moore's Law to operate well beyond 10 years. The technologies that will enable this extension include: single-electron transistors; quantum well devices; spin transistors; and nanotechnology and molecular engineering. Continuation of Moore's Law will rely on huge capital investments for manufacture as well as on new technologies. Much will depend on the fortunes of Intel, the premier chip manufacturer, which, in turn, depend on the development of mass-market applications and volume sales for chips of higher and higher density. The technology drivers are seen by different forecasters to include video/multimedia applications, digital signal processing, and business automation. Moore's Law will affect NASA in the areas of communications and space technology by reducing size and power requirements for data processing and data fusion functions to be performed onboard spacecraft. In addition, NASA will have the opportunity to be a pioneering contributor to nanotechnology research without incurring huge expenses

The future of laboratory medicine - A 2014 perspective.

Predicting the future is a difficult task. Not surprisingly, there are many examples and assumptions that have proved to be wrong. This review surveys the many predictions, beginning in 1887, about the future of laboratory medicine and its sub-specialties such as clinical chemistry and molecular pathology. It provides a commentary on the accuracy of the predictions and offers opinions on emerging technologies, economic factors and social developments that may play a role in shaping the future of laboratory medicine