Kernel discriminant analysis and clustering with parsimonious Gaussian process models

This work presents a family of parsimonious Gaussian process models which allow to build, from a finite sample, a model-based classifier in an infinite dimensional space. The proposed parsimonious models are obtained by constraining the eigen-decomposition of the Gaussian processes modeling each class. This allows in particular to use non-linear mapping functions which project the observations into infinite dimensional spaces. It is also demonstrated that the building of the classifier can be directly done from the observation space through a kernel function. The proposed classification method is thus able to classify data of various types such as categorical data, functional data or networks. Furthermore, it is possible to classify mixed data by combining different kernels. The methodology is as well extended to the unsupervised classification case. Experimental results on various data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method

Synthetic learner: model-free inference on treatments over time

Understanding of the effect of a particular treatment or a policy pertains to many areas of interest -- ranging from political economics, marketing to health-care and personalized treatment studies. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric, model-free test for detecting the effects of treatment over time that extends widely used Synthetic Control tests. The test is built on counterfactual predictions arising from many learning algorithms. In the Neyman-Rubin potential outcome framework with possible carry-over effects, we show that the proposed test is asymptotically consistent for stationary, beta mixing processes. We do not assume that class of learners captures the correct model necessarily. We also discuss estimates of the average treatment effect, and we provide regret bounds on the predictive performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first set of results that allow for example any Random Forest to be useful for provably valid statistical inference in the Synthetic Control setting. In experiments, we show that our Synthetic Learner is substantially more powerful than classical methods based on Synthetic Control or Difference-in-Differences, especially in the presence of non-linear outcome models