14,746 research outputs found
The belief noisy-or model applied to network reliability analysis
One difficulty faced in knowledge engineering for Bayesian Network (BN) is
the quan-tification step where the Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) are
determined. The number of parameters included in CPTs increases exponentially
with the number of parent variables. The most common solution is the
application of the so-called canonical gates. The Noisy-OR (NOR) gate, which
takes advantage of the independence of causal interactions, provides a
logarithmic reduction of the number of parameters required to specify a CPT. In
this paper, an extension of NOR model based on the theory of belief functions,
named Belief Noisy-OR (BNOR), is proposed. BNOR is capable of dealing with both
aleatory and epistemic uncertainty of the network. Compared with NOR, more rich
information which is of great value for making decisions can be got when the
available knowledge is uncertain. Specially, when there is no epistemic
uncertainty, BNOR degrades into NOR. Additionally, different structures of BNOR
are presented in this paper in order to meet various needs of engineers. The
application of BNOR model on the reliability evaluation problem of networked
systems demonstrates its effectiveness
Cross-layer system reliability assessment framework for hardware faults
System reliability estimation during early design phases facilitates informed decisions for the integration of effective protection mechanisms against different classes of hardware faults. When not all system abstraction layers (technology, circuit, microarchitecture, software) are factored in such an estimation model, the delivered reliability reports must be excessively pessimistic and thus lead to unacceptably expensive, over-designed systems. We propose a scalable, cross-layer methodology and supporting suite of tools for accurate but fast estimations of computing systems reliability. The backbone of the methodology is a component-based Bayesian model, which effectively calculates system reliability based on the masking probabilities of individual hardware and software components considering their complex interactions. Our detailed experimental evaluation for different technologies, microarchitectures, and benchmarks demonstrates that the proposed model delivers very accurate reliability estimations (FIT rates) compared to statistically significant but slow fault injection campaigns at the microarchitecture level.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft
Non Parametric Distributed Inference in Sensor Networks Using Box Particles Messages
This paper deals with the problem of inference in distributed systems where the probability model is stored in a distributed fashion. Graphical models provide powerful tools for modeling this kind of problems. Inspired by the box particle filter which combines interval analysis with particle filtering to solve temporal inference problems, this paper introduces a belief propagation-like message-passing algorithm that uses bounded error methods to solve the inference problem defined on an arbitrary graphical model. We show the theoretic derivation of the novel algorithm and we test its performance on the problem of calibration in wireless sensor networks. That is the positioning of a number of randomly deployed sensors, according to some reference defined by a set of anchor nodes for which the positions are known a priori. The new algorithm, while achieving a better or similar performance, offers impressive reduction of the information circulating in the network and the needed computation times
Large scale probabilistic available bandwidth estimation
The common utilization-based definition of available bandwidth and many of
the existing tools to estimate it suffer from several important weaknesses: i)
most tools report a point estimate of average available bandwidth over a
measurement interval and do not provide a confidence interval; ii) the commonly
adopted models used to relate the available bandwidth metric to the measured
data are invalid in almost all practical scenarios; iii) existing tools do not
scale well and are not suited to the task of multi-path estimation in
large-scale networks; iv) almost all tools use ad-hoc techniques to address
measurement noise; and v) tools do not provide enough flexibility in terms of
accuracy, overhead, latency and reliability to adapt to the requirements of
various applications. In this paper we propose a new definition for available
bandwidth and a novel framework that addresses these issues. We define
probabilistic available bandwidth (PAB) as the largest input rate at which we
can send a traffic flow along a path while achieving, with specified
probability, an output rate that is almost as large as the input rate. PAB is
expressed directly in terms of the measurable output rate and includes
adjustable parameters that allow the user to adapt to different application
requirements. Our probabilistic framework to estimate network-wide
probabilistic available bandwidth is based on packet trains, Bayesian
inference, factor graphs and active sampling. We deploy our tool on the
PlanetLab network and our results show that we can obtain accurate estimates
with a much smaller measurement overhead compared to existing approaches.Comment: Submitted to Computer Network
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