Network Weirdness: Exploring the Origins of Network Paradoxes

Social networks have many counter-intuitive properties, including the "friendship paradox" that states, on average, your friends have more friends than you do. Recently, a variety of other paradoxes were demonstrated in online social networks. This paper explores the origins of these network paradoxes. Specifically, we ask whether they arise from mathematical properties of the networks or whether they have a behavioral origin. We show that sampling from heavy-tailed distributions always gives rise to a paradox in the mean, but not the median. We propose a strong form of network paradoxes, based on utilizing the median, and validate it empirically using data from two online social networks. Specifically, we show that for any user the majority of user's friends and followers have more friends, followers, etc. than the user, and that this cannot be explained by statistical properties of sampling. Next, we explore the behavioral origins of the paradoxes by using the shuffle test to remove correlations between node degrees and attributes. We find that paradoxes for the mean persist in the shuffled network, but not for the median. We demonstrate that strong paradoxes arise due to the assortativity of user attributes, including degree, and correlation between degree and attribute.Comment: Accepted to ICWSM 201

Olfactory modulation of flight in Drosophila is sensitive, selective and rapid

Freely flying Drosophila melanogaster respond to odors by increasing their flight speed and turning upwind. Both these flight behaviors can be recapitulated in a tethered fly, which permits the odor stimulus to be precisely controlled. In this study, we investigated the relationship between these behaviors and odor-evoked activity in primary sensory neurons. First, we verified that these behaviors are abolished by mutations that silence olfactory receptor neurons (ORNs). We also found that antennal mechanosensors in Johnston's organ are required to guide upwind turns. Flight responses to an odor depend on the identity of the ORNs that are active, meaning that these behaviors involve odor discrimination and not just odor detection. Flight modulation can begin rapidly (within about 85 ms) after the onset of olfactory transduction. Moreover, just a handful of spikes in a single ORN type is sufficient to trigger these behaviors. Finally, we found that the upwind turn is triggered independently from the increase in wingbeat frequency, implying that ORN signals diverge to activate two independent and parallel motor commands. Together, our results show that odor-evoked flight modulations are rapid and sensitive responses to specific patterns of sensory neuron activity. This makes these behaviors a useful paradigm for studying the relationship between sensory neuron activity and behavioral decision-making in a simple and genetically tractable organism

Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal clinics. Assessing the uncertainty about its estimates and projections is important for informed policy decision making, and we propose the use of Bayesian melding for this purpose. Prevalence data and other information about the EPP model's input parameters are used to derive a probabilistic HIV prevalence projection, namely a probability distribution over a set of future prevalence trajectories. We relate antenatal clinic prevalence to population prevalence and account for variability between clinics using a random effects model. Predictive intervals for clinic prevalence are derived for checking the model. We discuss predictions given by the EPP model and the results of the Bayesian melding procedure for Uganda, where prevalence peaked at around 28% in 1990; the 95% prediction interval for 2010 ranges from 2% to 7%.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS111 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

What do they know about me? Contents and Concerns of Online Behavioral Profiles

Data aggregators collect large amount of information about individual users and create detailed online behavioral profiles of individuals. Behavioral profiles benefit users by improving products and services. However, they have also raised concerns regarding user privacy, transparency of collection practices and accuracy of data in the profiles. To improve transparency, some companies are allowing users to access their behavioral profiles. In this work, we investigated behavioral profiles of users by utilizing these access mechanisms. Using in-person interviews (n=8), we analyzed the data shown in the profiles, elicited user concerns, and estimated accuracy of profiles. We confirmed our interview findings via an online survey (n=100). To assess the claim of improving transparency, we compared data shown in profiles with the data that companies have about users. More than 70% of the participants expressed concerns about collection of sensitive data such as credit and health information, level of detail and how their data may be used. We found a large gap between the data shown in profiles and the data possessed by companies. A large number of profiles were inaccurate with as much as 80% inaccuracy. We discuss implications for public policy management.Comment: in Ashwini Rao, Florian Schaub, and Norman Sadeh What do they know about me? Contents and Concerns of Online Behavioral Profiles (2014) ASE BigData/SocialInformatics/PASSAT/BioMedCom Conferenc

Non-concave fundamental diagrams and phase transitions in a stochastic traffic cellular automaton

Within the class of stochastic cellular automata models of traffic flows, we look at the velocity dependent randomization variant (VDR-TCA) whose parameters take on a specific set of extreme values. These initial conditions lead us to the discovery of the emergence of four distinct phases. Studying the transitions between these phases, allows us to establish a rigorous classification based on their tempo-spatial behavioral characteristics. As a result from the system's complex dynamics, its flow-density relation exhibits a non-concave region in which forward propagating density waves are encountered. All four phases furthermore share the common property that moving vehicles can never increase their speed once the system has settled into an equilibrium

Sequences of purchases in credit card data reveal life styles in urban populations

Zipf-like distributions characterize a wide set of phenomena in physics, biology, economics and social sciences. In human activities, Zipf-laws describe for example the frequency of words appearance in a text or the purchases types in shopping patterns. In the latter, the uneven distribution of transaction types is bound with the temporal sequences of purchases of individual choices. In this work, we define a framework using a text compression technique on the sequences of credit card purchases to detect ubiquitous patterns of collective behavior. Clustering the consumers by their similarity in purchases sequences, we detect five consumer groups. Remarkably, post checking, individuals in each group are also similar in their age, total expenditure, gender, and the diversity of their social and mobility networks extracted by their mobile phone records. By properly deconstructing transaction data with Zipf-like distributions, this method uncovers sets of significant sequences that reveal insights on collective human behavior.Comment: 30 pages, 26 figure

The evolutionary origins of hierarchy

Hierarchical organization -- the recursive composition of sub-modules -- is ubiquitous in biological networks, including neural, metabolic, ecological, and genetic regulatory networks, and in human-made systems, such as large organizations and the Internet. To date, most research on hierarchy in networks has been limited to quantifying this property. However, an open, important question in evolutionary biology is why hierarchical organization evolves in the first place. It has recently been shown that modularity evolves because of the presence of a cost for network connections. Here we investigate whether such connection costs also tend to cause a hierarchical organization of such modules. In computational simulations, we find that networks without a connection cost do not evolve to be hierarchical, even when the task has a hierarchical structure. However, with a connection cost, networks evolve to be both modular and hierarchical, and these networks exhibit higher overall performance and evolvability (i.e. faster adaptation to new environments). Additional analyses confirm that hierarchy independently improves adaptability after controlling for modularity. Overall, our results suggest that the same force--the cost of connections--promotes the evolution of both hierarchy and modularity, and that these properties are important drivers of network performance and adaptability. In addition to shedding light on the emergence of hierarchy across the many domains in which it appears, these findings will also accelerate future research into evolving more complex, intelligent computational brains in the fields of artificial intelligence and robotics.Comment: 32 page

State of the States’ Health

Inequalities in access to health and health care are especially important forms of inequality because they speak to who lives long and who lives well. It is well known that, even though the United States spends more on health care per capita than any other country, it has some of the worst access and outcome results among wealthy nations.1 While important, such cross-country comparisons hide substantial health inequality within the United States. Even a cursory inspection of the data suggests that some states are indeed better performers on key health measures. For example, only one in ten adults in Utah smoke, whereas more than one in four do so in West Virginia. The purpose of this brief is to examine whether state differences of this magnitude are commonly found across various other health measures. We focus not just on average levels of health access, behaviors, and outcomes, but also on how unequally they are distributed. Although everyone would presumably prefer a state with high average health scores, it also matters whether the health disparities between the poor and relatively well-off are very large. If a state has a high mean level of health but also subjects its poor residents to a large “health penalty,” then anyone who is at risk of being poor would presumably want to avoid that state (at least insofar as the penalty is large enough to render them worse off than their counterparts in other states). Therefore, we examine two important features of a state’s health profile: the average level of health, behavioral, or access problems in the state; and the variation in the distribution of these outcomes by income

Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal clinics. Assessing the uncertainty about its estimates and projections is important for informed policy decision making, and we propose the use of Bayesian melding for this purpose. Prevalence data and other information about the EPP model's input parameters are used to derive a probabilistic HIV prevalence projection, namely a probability distribution over a set of future prevalence trajectories. We relate antenatal clinic prevalence to population prevalence and account for variability between clinics using a random effects model. Predictive intervals for clinic prevalence are derived for checking the model. We discuss predictions given by the EPP model and the results of the Bayesian melding procedure for Uganda, where prevalence peaked at around 28% in 1990; the 95% prediction interval for 2010 ranges from 2% to 7%.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS111 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

An exploratory study of imagining sounds and “hearing” music in autism

Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) reportedly possess preserved or superior music-processing skills compared to their typically developing counterparts. We examined auditory imagery and earworms (tunes that get “stuck” in the head) in adults with ASD and controls. Both groups completed a short earworm questionnaire together with the Bucknell Auditory Imagery Scale. Results showed poorer auditory imagery in the ASD group for all types of auditory imagery. However, the ASD group did not report fewer earworms than matched controls. These data suggest a possible basis in poor auditory imagery for poor prosody in ASD, but also highlight a separability between auditory imagery and control of musical memories. The separability is present in the ASD group but not in typically developing individuals