A Neoclassical Realist’s Analysis Of Sino-U.S. Space Policy

During the Cold War, the United States focused its collective policy acumen on forming a competitive, actor-specific strategy to gain advantage over the Soviet Union. The fragmentation of the Soviet Union resulted in a multi-polar geopolitical environment lacking a near-peer rival for the United States. Overwhelming soft and hard power advantages allowed American policy makers to peruse a general, non-actor specific strategy to maintain its hegemonic position. However, the meteoric rise of China as a near-peer competitor in East Asia has challenged this paradigm. In order to maintain its competitive advantage, or at the very least ensure the safety of its geopolitical objectives through encouraging benign competition, U.S. strategy needs to evolve in both focus and complexity. It is essential for Spacepower, as a key element of national power, to be included in this evolution. In order to do so, this analysis will examine Sino-U.S. space relations using neoclassical realism as a baseline methodology. First, structural elements of the Sino-U.S. relationship will be modeled in a semi-quantitative game theoretical framework, using relative economic and military capabilities as primary independent variables. Second, key assumptions will be tested to ensure that this model accurately represents the current geopolitical environment. Third, the decision making apparatuses of the United States and China will be examined as intervening variables. This will account for imperfect rationality and how it modifies the game theoretical framework. Fourth, this framework will be used to present actionable space policy recommendations for the United States so that space can be incorporated into a competitive strategy for East Asia

An Inference about Interference: A Surprising Application of Existing International Law to Inhibit Anti-Satellite Weapons

This article presents a thesis that most readers will find surprising, in an effort to develop a novel, simultaneous solution to three urgent, complex problems related to outer space. The three problems are: a) the technical fact that debris in outer space (the accumulated orbital junk produced by decades of space activities) has grown to present a serious hazard to safe and effective exploration and exploitation of space; b) the strategic fact that many countries (notably the United States, China and Russia, but others, too) continue to demonstrate a misguided interest in pursuing anti-satellite weapons, which can jeopardize the security of space; and c) the political fact that attempts to provide additional legal regulation of outer space (via new bilateral or multilateral international agreements) have failed, with little prospect for prompt conclusion of meaningful new accords. The proposed solution is to adapt existing international law in an unforeseen way. Specifically, numerous current and historical arms control treaties provide for verification of parties’ compliance via “national technical means” (NTM) of verification, which prominently include satellite-based sensory and communications systems. These treaties routinely provide protection for those essential space assets by requiring parties to undertake “not to interfere” with NTM. The argument developed here is that additional tests in space of debris-creating anti-satellite weapons would already be illegal, even without the conclusion of any dedicated new treaty against further weaponization of space, because in the current crowded conditions of space, a new cloud of orbital debris would, sooner or later, impermissibly interfere with NTM satellites. If sustained, this thesis can provide a new rationale for opposition to the development, testing, and use of anti-satellite weapons. It a legal reinforcement for the political instincts to avoid activities that further undercut the optimal usability of outer space, and it demonstrates how creative re-interpretation of existing legal provisions can promote the advancement of the rule of international law, even in circumstances where the articulation of new treaties is blocked

China's space program : a new tool for PRC "soft power" in international relations?

When China launched an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon in January 2007 to destroy one of its inactive weather satellites, most reactions from academics and U.S. space experts focused on a potential military “space race” between the United States and China. Overlooked, however, is China’s growing role as global competitor on the non-military side of space. China’s space program goes far beyond military counterspace applications and manifests manned space aspirations, including lunar exploration. Its pursuit of both commercial and scientific international space ventures constitutes a small, yet growing, percentage of the global space launch and related satellite service industry. It also highlights China’s willingness to cooperate with nations far away from Asia for political and strategic purposes. These partnerships may constitute a challenge to the United States and enhance China’s “soft power” among key American allies and even in some regions traditionally dominated by U.S. influence (e.g., Latin America and Africa). Thus, an appropriate U.S. response may not lie in a “hard power” counterspace effort but instead in a revival of U.S. space outreach of the past, as well as implementation of more business-friendly export control policies

India And China Space Programs: From Genesis Of Space Technologies To Major Space Programs And What That Means For The Internati

The Indian and Chinese space programs have evolved into technologically advanced vehicles of national prestige and international competition for developed nations. The programs continue to evolve with impetus that India and China will have the same space capabilities as the United States with in the coming years. This will present new challenges to the international community in spheres civilian, to space and military applications and their residual benefits

International Competition for Satellite-Based Navigation System Services

The goal of this work is to review the current state of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) development and its potential impact on the social, economic, and political dynamics of the various states fielding the systems. The most recognizable GNSS is the US GPS. It is the only operational system functioning at the time of this writing and has become part of the global commons. GPS, by virtue of its uniqueness, is considered the \u27gold standard\u27 of satellite based positioning, navigation, and timing systems. This uniqueness has also enabled the US to fully capitalize on the sizable economic dividends gained by the US technology sector from the development and sales of GPS user equipment and services. This work argues that the emergence of three global peer competitors to GPS is going to usher in a changed international relations environment for those new players. The economic implications go beyond a simple return on investment and could represent the continued space science and technical competitiveness of these states or not. The international political ramifications of the success or failure of the particular GNSSs could have a greater impact on the current international order than has been previously considered. The European Union, Russia, and China have become inexorably locked in a contest of domestic political will to field the next generation of GNSS in order to free themselves from US GPS domination and at the same time gain economic advantage over the other in space system technologies. Concurrently, the US is endeavoring to field the next generation of GPS and maintain its dominance in the associated technologies linked to GPS

RUSSIA AND CHINA IN SPACE: SECURITY AND DEFENSE CAPABILITIES. IMPLICATIONS OF BILATERAL COOPERATION.

Η παρούσα διπλωματική εργασία παρέχει μια εις βάθος ανάλυση των πτυχών άμυνας και ασφάλειας των ρωσικών και κινεζικών διαστημικών προγραμμάτων. Εξετάζει τις πολιτικές και τις προτεραιότητες των δύο χωρών στο διάστημα, τις στρατηγικές τους για τη χρήση διαστημικών πόρων και τις προοπτικές τους για διεθνή συνεργασία. Η μελέτη επικεντρώνεται σε στρατιωτικές εφαρμογές της διαστημικής τεχνολογίας, συμπεριλαμβανομένων των δορυφορικών αμυντικών συστημάτων και των αντί-δορυφορικών όπλων. Λαμβάνει επίσης υπόψη τις γεωπολιτικές επιπτώσεις των διαστημικών προγραμμάτων αυτών των δύο χωρών. Η Κίνα είναι μια ανερχόμενη δύναμη σε γεωπολιτικό, οικονομικό και τεχνολογικό επίπεδο, αμφισβητώντας την παγκόσμια κυριαρχία των ΗΠΑ. Η συνεργασία της με τη Ρωσία έχει καθοριστική στρατηγική σημασία. Η εισβολή της Ρωσίας στην Ουκρανία έχει αλλάξει το γεωπολιτικό τοπίο, προκαλώντας μετατοπίσεις στις διεθνείς οικονομικές, στρατιωτικές και τεχνολογικές συμμαχίες. Η παρούσα εργασία εξετάζει αυτές τις εξελίξεις και τις αναμενόμενες διεθνείς επιπτώσεις τους για τη διαστημική βιομηχανία και τη συνεργασία μεταξύ διαστημικών οργανισμών, ιδιαίτερα μετά την επιβολή των δυτικών κυρώσεων κατά της Ρωσίας.This thesis provides an in-depth analysis of the defense and security aspects of the Russian and Chinese space programs. It examines the countries’ policies and priorities in space, their strategies for utilizing space assets, and their prospects for international collaboration. The study focuses on military applications of space technology including satellite defense systems and anti-satellites weapons. It also considers the geopolitical implications of the space programs of these two countries. China is a rising power in geopolitics, economics, and technology, challenging the global dominance of the U.S. Its collaboration with Russia holds significant strategic importance. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has shifted the geopolitical landscape, triggering changes in economic, military, and technological alliances. This thesis examines these developments and their expected international implications for the space industry and collaboration among space organizations, particularly after the imposition of Western sanctions against Russia

Technology Resources for Earthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR)

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life, human suffering, and enormous damage to homes, other buildings, and infrastructure. The Technology Resources for Earthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) proposal is designed to address this problem. This proposal recommends two prototype systems integrating space-based and ground technology. The suggested pilot implementation is over a 10-year period in three focus countries – China, Japan, and Peru – that are among the areas in the world most afflicted by earthquakes. The first proposed system is an Earthquake Early Warning Prototype System that addresses the potential of earthquake precursors, the science of which is incomplete and considered controversial within the scientific community. We recommend the development and launch of two small satellites to study ionospheric and electromagnetic precursors. In combination with ground-based precursor research, the data gathered will improve existing knowledge of earthquake-related phenomena. The second proposed system is an Earthquake Simulation and Response Prototype. An earthquake simulator will combine any available precursor data with detailed knowledge of the affected areas using a Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify those areas that are most likely to experience the greatest level of damage. Mobile satellite communication hubs will provide telephone and data links between response teams, while satellite navigation systems will locate and track emergency vehicles. We recommend a virtual response satellite constellation composed of existing and future high resolution satellites. We also recommend education and training for response teams on the use of these technologies. The two prototypes will be developed and implemented by a proposed non-profit nongovernmental organization (NGO) called the TREMOR Foundation, which will obtain funding from government disaster management agencies and NGOs. A for-profit subsidiary will market any spin-off technologies and provide an additional source of funding. Assuming positive results from the prototype systems, Team TREMOR recommends their eventual and permanent implementation in all countries affected by earthquakes.Postprint (published version

Mining industry in developed countries and european strategy for the sector

Dissertação de mestrado em EconomiaO acesso a matérias-primas críticas tem sido um problema crescente desde o início dos anos 2000, não apenas dentro da União Europeia (UE), mas também fora dela. Visto que existem grandes países líderes como a China e os Estados Unidos da América (EUA) que estão a tentar obter o controlo das cadeias de abastecimento destes recursos, a UE começou a reagir de forma a diminuir a vantagem competitiva de outros países. Foi em 2008 que a Comissão Europeia (CE) começou a sugerir uma política mineral para os Estados membros e alguns países, incluindo Portugal, começaram a ter uma política nacional para estes recursos minerais. Existem dois grandes temas a serem discutidos, as indústrias de matérias-primas críticas e de semicondutores. Ambos estão correlacionados, pois estão na mesma cadeia de abastecimento, por isso é possível assumir que, dependendo da causa, como a guerra, pode ter efeitos críticos em ambas as indústrias. Os semicondutores são um componente vital das nossas vidas, pois são usados na produção de produtos eletrónicos. Políticas e iniciativas têm sido propostas pela CE há vários anos nos setores de matérias-primas críticas e semicondutores, a Iniciativa de Matérias-Primas e o EU Chips Act, respectivamente, com o objetivo de melhorar e fortalecer a competitividade europeia numa escala global nesta nova era digital, mas de forma segura e ambientalmente sustentável. O objetivo desta dissertação é entender como a economia e as cadeias de abastecimento dos setores discutidos funcionam, e estudar se as políticas europeias têm algum impacto significativo na indústria de mineração.Access to critical raw materials has been a growing problem since the early 2000’s not only within the European Union (EU) but outside of it as well. Since there are big leading countries such as China and the United States of America (USA) that are trying to get control of the supply chains of these resources, the EU began to react in order to diminish the competitive advantage of other countries. It has been since 2008 when the European Commission (EC) started to suggest a mineral policy for the member states and some countries, including Portugal, started to have a national policy for these mineral resources. There are two major topics to be discussed, the critical raw materials and the semiconductors industries. Both are correlated since they are in the same supply chain, so it is possible to assume that depending on the cause, such as war, it can have critical effects on both industries. Semiconductors are a vital component of our lives since they are used in the production of electronic products. Policies and initiatives have been proposed from the EC for several years in the sectors of critical raw materials and semiconductors, Raw Materials Initiative and EU Chips Act respectively, in order to improve and strengthen the Europe competitiveness in a global scale in this new digital era, but in a secure and environmentally sustainable method. The purpose of this dissertation is to understand how the economy and the supply chains of the discussed sectors work, and study if the European policies have any significant impact to the mining industry

Maturing International Cooperation to Address the Cyberspace Attack Attribution Problem

One of the most significant challenges to deterring attacks in cyberspace is the difficulty of identifying and attributing attacks to specific state or non-state actors. The lack of technical detection capability moves the problem into the legal realm; however, the lack of domestic and international cyberspace legislation makes the problem one of international cooperation. Past assessments have led to collective paralysis pending improved technical and legal advancements. This paper demonstrates, however, that any plausible path to meaningful defense in cyberspace must include a significant element of international cooperation and regime formation. The analytical approach diverges from past utilitarian-based assessments to understand the emerging regime, or implicit and explicit principles, norms, rules, and decision-making procedures, around which actor expectations are beginning to converge in the area of cyberspace attack attribution. The analysis applies a social-practice perspective of regime formation to identify meaningful normative and political recommendations. Various hypotheses of regime formation further tailor the recommendations to the current maturity level of international cooperation in this issue area. Examining international cooperation in cyberspace and methods for maturing international cooperation to establish attribution in other domains inform political mitigations to the problem of cyberspace attack attribution. Potential solutions are analyzed with respect to four recent cyberspace attacks to illustrate how improved international cooperation might address the problem. Finally, a counterfactual analysis, or thought experiment, of how these recommendations might have been applied in the case of rampant Chinese cyber espionage inform specific current and future opportunities for implementation. Although timing is difficult to predict, the growing frequency and scope of cyber attacks indicate the window of opportunity to address the problem before some form of cataclysmic event is closing