Electricity Network Scenarios for Great Britain in 2050

The next fifty years are likely to see great developments in the technologies deployed in electricity systems, with consequent changes in the structure and operation of power networks. This paper, which forms a chapter in the forthcoming book Future Electricity Technologies and Systems, develops and presents six possible future electricity industry scenarios for Great Britain, focussed on the year 2050. The paper draws upon discussions of important technologies presented by expert authors in other chapters of the book to consider the impact of different combinations of key influences on the nature of the power system in 2050. For each scenario there is a discussion of the effects of the key parameters, with a description and pictorial illustration. Summary tables identify the role of the technologies presented in other chapters of the book, and list important figures of interest, such as the capacity and energy production of renewable generation technologies

E-BUSINESS AND GLOBAL SOURCING – INFERENCES FROM SECURITIES EXCHANGES

This paper sets out a conceptual model that describes how the configuration of relevant geographic markets might change as electronic “gateways” or portals challenge conventional markets. It then considers the main conceptual inferences against the experience of securities markets. Consideration of empirical evidence suggests that e-business will lead to expanded geographic markets, although the pace and extent of the expansion might be slower and less dramatic, even in the long- run, than early enthusiasts of e-business may have anticipated.geographic markets, securities markets, e-business

Sequencing Trade and Monetary Integration

Regional integration for at least the last sixty years has focused on trade integration. Balassa’s canonical taxonomy of regional trading arrangements is often interpreted as a sequence from free trade area through customs union and common market to economic union. In the 1980s the concept of deep integration went beyond trade with its focus on policy harmonization, which came to include monetary integration, but it presupposed trade integration as the first step in the regional integration sequence. In Asia there has been very little trade integration through regional agreements - ASEAN is the most ambitious project, but even there actual achievements in trade integration have been limited. When discussion of monetary integration began in East Asia after 1997, it was in the absence of trade integration. The conventional view would see this as an obstacle to greater regional integration, but some proponents of Asian regionalism saw monetary integration as a step towards promoting trade integration, reversing the orthodox sequence. The two theoretical literatures (customs union theory and optimal currency area theory) were distinct and there remains a disconnect between the trade and monetary integration literature. This paper re- evaluates the global cross-country evidence on the relationship between trade integration and monetary union. It then applies the results to the prospects for monetary union before trade integration in East Asia, and to the consequences of monetary union for trade integration.currency union; customs union

Strategic Challenges for Exchanges and Securities Settlement

A common feature of major trends in securities and derivative markets is that they facilitate cross-border competition between financial institutions and markets. These trends include financial deregulation, technological developments that increase network externalities and the introduction of the single currency in Europe. This paper discusses future prospects for stock and derivative exchanges and securities settlement systems globally in the light of this analytical framework. The increased contestability of the financial markets opens the way for a completely new situation where economies of scale and network effects enable new systems to challenge existing exchanges and settlement systems. This has already led towards more integrated trading and settlement infrastructure via mergers, alliances, links, agreements and other forms of cooperation between existing infrastructure companies. At the same time new electronic communication networks and electronic exchanges operated by members of exchanges or off-exchange companies and Internet brokers have emerged. We expect that economies of scale and scope and network effects will foster global competition. The business conducted by brokers and exchanges will tend to converge, thus posing a major challenge for the management of these businesses. Trading and settlement services for the most liquid global trading products will, we believe, be provided by limited liability companies that employ efficient governance practices. We anticipate that US stock and derivative exchanges will have to adopt fully electronic trading systems. This might lead to intense competition between exchanges in the US and globally. We also anticipate that European alliances will be based on a more efficient operational model than the models proposed so far. An increase in Internet-routed equity and derivative trades will lead to partial fragmentation of liquidity. As technology advances, we expect pooling of liquidity in one of the networks.exchanges; settlement systems; technology; network externalities; economies of scale