342 research outputs found
Judgmental forecasting: Factors affecting lay people's expectations of inflation
In this thesis, laypeopleâs judgmental forecasting about inflation is reviewed and experimentally explored in six chapters. Inflation is defined as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) across the whole thesis. In Chapter 1, I review work on the formation of inflation expectations, drawing mainly from the economic literature. In Chapter 2, I review research on judgmental forecasting, drawing mainly from the literature in cognitive psychology and management science. In Chapter 3, three experiments are presented that were designed to determine how and when people employ internal information of experienced price changes to form inflation expectations. In Chapter 4, three experiments are used to investigate the effects of providing within-series and across-series historical information (inflation rates, interest rates and unemployment rates) on inflation expectations. In Chapter 5, two experiments are reported that examine how training using simple outcome feedback increases the accuracy of inflation judgments and improves the calibration of confidence in those judgments. Chapter 6 reports experiments designed to examine the effects of using different elicitation methods (point forecasts, interval forecasts and density forecasts) on the accuracy of inflation judgments. Chapter 7 is a concluding chapter that summarises findings from these experiments and suggests avenues for future work
Transgressing Institutional Limits to Access in Post-Secondary Disability Service Offices: A Critical Race Theory and BIPOC Mad Studies Framework
Post-Secondary Disability Service Offices (DSOs) have been given particular attention by the Ontario Human Rights Commission through an influx of policy documents released in the past 15 years (OHRC, 2002; OHRC 2003; OHRC, 2004; OHRC 2017; OHRC, 2018). Located at the intersection of Critical Race Theory and BIPOC Mad studies (da Silveira Gorman, 2013), this project seeks to introduce a transnational approach (da Silveira Gorman, 2013) to the analysis of the DSO, by asking the central questionsâhow are definitions of accessibility mediating systemic marginalization of BIPOC students in DSOs? âWhat critical representations of disablement have been promoted or sidelinedâ (da Silveira Gorman, 2018, p. 457) in Ontario post-secondary education? How are eligibility requirements for DSOs reifying categories of identity?
This study interviews BIPOC Accessibility Advisors and BIPOC students in Ontario, to understand the barriers which exist for racialized students in the DSO and the institution at large. Reports from Accessibility Advisors and students reveal that the DSO is organized around a conceptualization of âdisability historyâ that generalizes disability as a âwhite, middle class phenomenonâ (da Silveira Gorman, 2018, p. 454), which in turn, impacts BIPOCâs studentâs ability to access services in their post-secondary institutions. BIPOC Accessibility Advisors share ways their lived experience has informed the ways they provide services to their BIPOC students. Reports from BIPOC students explicate the manner in which services in the DSO are navigated despite the terrain, and innovative ways students understand themselves within these services. Finally, best practices in DSO service provision are suggested to improve for BIPOC students by challenging the student at centre of the service provision imagination
Critical transition and spatial organization in climate and engineering systems
Diese Arbeit zielt darauf ab, die raumzeitlichen RegelmĂ€Ăigkeiten an ĂbergĂ€ngen
aufzudecken, die in saisonalen Klima- und Ingenieursystemen beobachtet
werden, indem moderne Methoden der komplexen Systemwissenschaft verwendet
werden. Das erste System ist der indische Sommermonsun - eine Regenzeit,
deren jÀhrliche Schwankungen das Leben und den Wohlstand von mehr als
einer Milliarde Menschen auf dem indischen Subkontinent beeinflussen und die
Wirtschaft des von der Landwirtschaft abhÀngigen Landes stark beeintrÀchtigen.
Insbesondere die Kenntnis des zeitlichen Ablaufs des Ăbergangs vom Vormonsun
zum Monsun ist fĂŒr die Planung landwirtschaftlicher AktivitĂ€ten dringend erforderlich.
Die Vorhersage des Monsunzeitpunkts ĂŒber dem indischen Kontinent
bleibt jedoch eine groĂe wissenschaftliche Herausforderung. Das zweite ist ein
Verbrennungssystem, das anfĂ€llig fĂŒr ein katastrophales PhĂ€nomen namens thermoakustische
InstabilitÀt ist, das verhindert, dass das Verbrennungssystem unter
klimafreundlichen Bedingungen betrieben wird. Eine solche Brennkammer ist
typisch fĂŒr Energie- und Antriebssysteme wie Gasturbinentriebwerke, Boiler und
Raketen. Zu verstehen, wann der Ăbergang zur thermoakustischen InstabilitĂ€t
auftritt und wie dieser Ăbergang unterdrĂŒckt werden kann, sind SchlĂŒsselfragen
fĂŒr die Entwicklung klimafreundlicher Motoren. Diese Dissertation liefert ein
neues VerstÀndnis des indischen Sommermonsuns und der thermoakustischen
InstabilitÀt durch auf statistischer Physik basierende AnsÀtze, die verborgene
Merkmale in diesen Systemen nahe ihren jeweiligen ĂbergĂ€ngen aufdecken.This thesis aims to reveal the spatiotemporal regularities at transitions observed
in seasonal climate and engineering systems by utilizing modern methods
of complex systems science. The first system is the Indian Summer Monsoon - a
rainy season whose yearly variability affects the life and prosperity of more than
a billion people in the Indian subcontinent and strongly impacts the economy of
the agriculture-dependent country. In particular, knowledge of the timing of the
transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon is greatly needed for the planning of
agriculture activities. However, the prediction of monsoon timing over the Indian
continent remains a significant scientific challenge. The second is a combustion
system prone to a catastrophic phenomenon called thermoacoustic instability,
which prevents the combustion system from being operated in climate-friendly
conditions. Such a combustor is typical in power and propulsion systems such
as gas turbine engines, boilers, and rockets. Understanding when the transition
to thermoacoustic instability occurs and how to suppress this transition are key
questions for developing climate-friendly engines. This thesis provides a new
understanding of the Indian Summer Monsoon and thermoacoustic instability
through statistical physics-based approaches that reveal hidden features in these
systems near their respective transitions
General Course Catalog [2022/23 academic year]
General Course Catalog, 2022/23 academic yearhttps://repository.stcloudstate.edu/undergencat/1134/thumbnail.jp
Computer-based methods of knowledge generation in science - What can the computer tell us about the world?
Der Computer hat die wissenschaftliche Praxis in fast allen Disziplinen signifikant verĂ€ndert. Neben traditionellen Quellen fĂŒr neue Erkenntnisse wie beispielsweise Beobachtungen, deduktiven Argumenten oder Experimenten, werden nun regelmĂ€Ăig auch computerbasierte Methoden wie âComputersimulationenâ und âMachine Learningâ als solche Quellen genannt. Dieser Wandel in der Wissenschaft bringt wissenschaftsphilosophische Fragen in Bezug auf diese neuen Methoden mit sich. Eine der naheliegendsten Fragen ist dabei, ob diese neuen Methoden dafĂŒr geeignet sind, als Quellen fĂŒr neue Erkenntnisse zu dienen. Dieser Frage wird in der vorliegenden Arbeit nachgegangen, wobei ein besonderer Fokus auf einem der zentralen Probleme der computerbasierten Methoden liegt: der OpazitĂ€t. Computerbasierte Methoden werden als opak bezeichnet, wenn der kausale Zusammenhang zwischen Input und Ergebnis nicht nachvollziehbar ist. Zentrale Fragen dieser Arbeit sind, ob Computersimulationen und Machine Learning Algorithmen opak sind, ob die OpazitĂ€t bei beiden Methoden von der gleichen Natur ist und ob die OpazitĂ€t verhindert, mit computerbasierten Methoden neue Erkenntnisse zu erlangen. Diese Fragen werden nah an der naturwissenschaftlichen Praxis untersucht; insbesondere die Teilchenphysik und das ATLAS-Experiment am CERN dienen als wichtige Fallbeispiele.
Die Arbeit basiert auf fĂŒnf Artikeln. In den ersten beiden Artikeln werden Computersimulationen mit zwei anderen Methoden â Experimenten und Argumenten â verglichen, um sie methodologisch einordnen zu können und herauszuarbeiten, welche Herausforderungen beim Erkenntnisgewinn Computersimulationen von den anderen Methoden unterscheiden. Im ersten Artikel werden Computersimulationen und Experimente verglichen. Aufgrund der Vielfalt an Computersimulationen ist es jedoch nicht sinnvoll, einen pauschalen Vergleich mit Experimenten durchzufĂŒhren. Es werden verschiedene epistemische Aspekte herausgearbeitet, auf deren Basis der Vergleich je nach Anwendungskontext durchgefĂŒhrt werden sollte. Im zweiten Artikel wird eine von Claus Beisbart formulierte Position diskutiert, die Computersimulationen als Argumente versteht. Dieser âArgument Viewâ beschreibt die Funktionsweise von Computersimulationen sehr gut und ermöglicht es damit, Fragen zur OpazitĂ€t und zum induktiven Charakter von Computersimulationen zu beantworten. Wie mit Computersimulationen neues Wissen erlangt werden kann, kann der Argument View alleine jedoch nicht ausreichend beantworten. Der dritte Artikel beschĂ€ftigt sich mit der Rolle von Modellen in der theoretischen Ăkologie. Modelle sind zentraler Bestandteil von Computersimulationen und Machine Learning Algorithmen. Die Fragen ĂŒber die Beziehung von PhĂ€nomenen und Modellen, die hier anhand von Beispielen aus der Ăkologie betrachtet werden, sind daher fĂŒr die epistemischen Fragen dieser Arbeit von zentraler Bedeutung. Der vierte Artikel bildet das Bindeglied zwischen den Themen Computersimulation und Machine Learning. In diesem Artikel werden verschiedene Arten von OpazitĂ€t definiert und Computersimulationen und Machine Learning Algorithmen anhand von Beispielen aus der Teilchenphysik daraufhin untersucht, welche Arten von OpazitĂ€t jeweils vorhanden sind. Es wird argumentiert, dass OpazitĂ€t fĂŒr den Erkenntnisgewinn mithilfe von Computer-simulationen kein prinzipielles Problem darstellt, Model-OpazitĂ€t jedoch fĂŒr Machine Learning Algorithmen eine Quelle von fundamentaler OpazitĂ€t sein könnte. Im fĂŒnften Artikel wird dieselbe Terminologie auf den Bereich von Schachcomputern angewandt. Der Vergleich zwischen einem traditionellen Schachcomputer und einem Schachcomputer, der auf einem neuronalen Netz basiert ermöglicht die Illustration der Konsequenzen der unterschiedlichen OpazitĂ€ten.
Insgesamt ermöglicht die Arbeit eine methodische Einordnung von Computersimulationen und zeigt, dass sich weder mit einem Bezug auf Experimente noch auf Argumente alleine klĂ€ren lĂ€sst, wie Computersimulationen zu neuen Erkenntnissen fĂŒhren. Eine klare Definition der jeweils vorhanden OpazitĂ€ten ermöglicht eine Abgrenzung von den eng verwandten Machine Learning Algorithmen
Machine learning as a service for high energy physics (MLaaS4HEP): a service for ML-based data analyses
With the CERN LHC program underway, there has been an acceleration of data growth in the High Energy Physics (HEP) field and the usage of Machine Learning (ML) in HEP will be critical during the HL-LHC program when the data that will be produced will reach the exascale. ML techniques have been successfully used in many areas of HEP nevertheless, the development of a ML project and its implementation for production use is a highly time-consuming task and requires specific skills. Complicating this scenario is the fact that HEP data is stored in ROOT data format, which is mostly unknown outside of the HEP community.
The work presented in this thesis is focused on the development of a ML as a Service (MLaaS) solution for HEP, aiming to provide a cloud service that allows HEP users to run ML pipelines via HTTP calls. These pipelines are executed by using the MLaaS4HEP framework, which allows reading data, processing data, and training ML models directly using ROOT files of arbitrary size from local or distributed data sources. Such a solution provides HEP users non-expert in ML with a tool that allows them to apply ML techniques in their analyses in a streamlined manner.
Over the years the MLaaS4HEP framework has been developed, validated, and tested and new features have been added. A first MLaaS solution has been developed by automatizing the deployment of a platform equipped with the MLaaS4HEP framework. Then, a service with APIs has been developed, so that a user after being authenticated and authorized can submit MLaaS4HEP workflows producing trained ML models ready for the inference phase. A working prototype of this service is currently running on a virtual machine of INFN-Cloud and is compliant to be added to the INFN Cloud portfolio of services
Middle Savannah River: An A/r/tographic Ecopedagogical Ethnography Experimenting with Rhizomatic Perspectives
This research is an experiment in perspective. Using the four commonplaces (Schwab, 1978), I practiced letting the Savannah River teach me what there is to know about the water, the land, the people, and the other entities that depend on ki through artistic, ethnographic, and ecopedagogical lenses. The ethnographic findings describe the social actors that depend on ki and give a voice to the River. The a/r/tographic findings display the River on a canvas map through two hundred years using paint, clay, photography, video, abstract acrylics, and fabric. Together, these methods contribute to a unique ecopedagogical journey. This word cloud provides a small window into the work
Joe Pawsey and the Founding of Australian Radio Astronomy
This open access book is a biography of Joseph L. Pawsey. It examines not only his life but the birth and growth of the field of radio astronomy and the state of science itself in twentieth century Australia. The book explains how an isolated continent with limited resources grew to be one of the leaders in the study of radio astronomy and the design of instruments to do so. Pawsey made a name for himself in the international astronomy community within a decade after WWII and coined the term radio astronomy. His most valuable talent was his ability to recruit and support bright young scientists who became the technical and methodological innovators of the era, building new telescopes from the Mills Cross and Chris (Christiansen) Cross to the Parkes radio telescope. The development of aperture synthesis and the controversy surrounding the cosmological interpretation of the first major survey which resulted in the Sydney research group's disagreements with Nobel laureate Martin Ryle play major roles in this story. This book also shows the connections among prominent astronomers like Oort, Minkowski, Baade, Struve, famous scientists in the UK such as J.A. Ratcliffe, Edward Appleton and Henry Tizard, and the engineers and physicists in Australia who helped develop the field of radio astronomy. Pawsey was appointed the second Director of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (Green Bank, West Virginia) in October 1961; he died in Sydney at the age of 54 in late November 1962. Upper level students, scientists and historians will find the information, much of it from primary sources, relevant to any study of Joseph L. Pawsey or radio astronomy. This is an open access book
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