Multivariate control charts based on Bayesian state space models

This paper develops a new multivariate control charting method for vector autocorrelated and serially correlated processes. The main idea is to propose a Bayesian multivariate local level model, which is a generalization of the Shewhart-Deming model for autocorrelated processes, in order to provide the predictive error distribution of the process and then to apply a univariate modified EWMA control chart to the logarithm of the Bayes' factors of the predictive error density versus the target error density. The resulting chart is proposed as capable to deal with both the non-normality and the autocorrelation structure of the log Bayes' factors. The new control charting scheme is general in application and it has the advantage to control simultaneously not only the process mean vector and the dispersion covariance matrix, but also the entire target distribution of the process. Two examples of London metal exchange data and of production time series data illustrate the capabilities of the new control chart.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figure

Multivariate Statistical Process Control Charts: An Overview

In this paper we discuss the basic procedures for the implementation of multivariate statistical process control via control charting. Furthermore, we review multivariate extensions for all kinds of univariate control charts, such as multivariate Shewhart-type control charts, multivariate CUSUM control charts and multivariate EWMA control charts. In addition, we review unique procedures for the construction of multivariate control charts, based on multivariate statistical techniques such as principal components analysis (PCA) and partial lest squares (PLS). Finally, we describe the most significant methods for the interpretation of an out-of-control signal.quality control, process control, multivariate statistical process control, Hotelling's T-square, CUSUM, EWMA, PCA, PLS

A review on the influence of drinking water quality towards human health

An adequate supply of safe drinking water is one of the major prerequisites for a healthy life. Inadequate of safe drinking water produce waterborne disease and a major cause of death in many parts of the world, particularly in children. Therefore, it must be treated properly before it can be used and consumed. This chapter provides the guidelines of important parameters for drinking water standard in order to ensure the safeness of drinking water. All the selected parameters were elaborated on the effect of high concentration if human consume the drinking water directly

Integrated Projection and Regression Models for Monitoring Multivariate Autocorrelated Cascade Processes

This dissertation presents a comprehensive methodology of dual monitoring for the multivariate autocorrelated cascade processes using principal component analysis and regression. Principle Components Analysis is used to alleviate the multicollinearity among input process variables and reduce the dimension of the variables. An integrated principal components selection rule is proposed to reduce the number of input variables. An autoregressive time series model is used and imposed on the time correlated output variable which depends on many multicorrelated process input variables. A generalized least squares principal component regression is used to describe the relationship between product and process variables under the autoregressive regression error model. The combined residual based EWMA control chart, applied to the product characteristics, and the MEWMA control charts applied to the multivariate autocorrelated cascade process characteristics, are proposed. The dual EWMA and MEWMA control chart has advantage and capability over the conventional residual type control chart applied to the residuals of the principal component regression by monitoring both product and the process characteristics simultaneously. The EWMA control chart is used to increase the detection performance, especially in the case of small mean shifts. The MEWMA is applied to the selected set of variables from the first principal component with the aim of increasing the sensitivity in detecting process failures. The dual implementation control chart for product and process characteristics enhances both the detection and the prediction performance of the monitoring system of the multivariate autocorrelated cascade processes. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through an example of the sugar-beet pulp drying process. A general guideline for controlling multivariate autocorrelated processes is also developed

Phase II control charts for autocorrelated processes

A large amount of SPC procedures are based on the assumption that the process subject to monitoring consists of independent observations. Chemical processes as well as many non-industrial processes exhibit autocorrelation, for which the above-mentioned control procedures are not suitable. This paper proposes a Phase II control procedure for autocorrelated and possibly locally stationary processes. A time-varying autoregressive (AR) model is proposed, which is capable of dealing with the autocorrelation as well as with local non-stationarities of the temporal process. Such non-stationarities are induced by the time-varying nature of the AR coefficients. The model is optimized during Phase I when it is assured that the process is in control and as a result the model describes accurately the process. The Phase II proposed control procedure is based on a comparison of the current time series model with an alternative model, measuring deviations from it. This comparison is carried out using Bayes factors, which help to establish the in-control or out-of-control state of the process in Phase II. Using the threshold rules of the Bayes factors, we propose a binomial-type control procedure for the monitoring of the process. The methodology of this paper is illustrated using two data sets consisting of temperature measurements at two different stages in the manufacturing of a plastic mould

Usage of control charts for time series analysis in financial management

We will deal with corporate financial proceeding using statistical process control, specifically time series control charts. The article outlines intersection of two disciplines, namely econometrics and statistical process control. Theoretical part discusses methodology of time series control charts, and in research part, the methodology is demonstrated on two case studies. The first focuses on analysis of Slovak currency from the perspective of its usefulness for generating profits through time series control charts. The second involves regulation of financial flows for a heteroskedastic financial process by EWMA and ARIMA control charts. We use Box-Jenkins methodology to find models of time series of annual Argentinian Gross Domestic Product available as a basic index from 1951-1998. We demonstrate the versatility of control charts not only in manufacturing but also in managing financial stability of cash flows. Specifically, we show their sensitivity in detecting even small shifts in mean which may indicate financial instability. This analytical approach is widely applicable and therefore of theoretical and practical interest

Monitoring the Process Mean of Autocorrelated Data

When modeling the stochastic behavior of a sequence { } t X of the quality measurement X on the output of a production process, it is usually assumed the measurements taken over time are independent and identically distributed. Multiple authors have pointed out that significant autocorrelation can affect the performance of traditional control charting procedures. One family of models for time series data are the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. These models are well suited to model production processes, in which the observations are autocorrelated. It is our interest to examine these models. Meaning is given to the process being in-control and out-of-control in terms of the parameters of the model. The performance of the Shewhart X chart and CUSUM X chart are compared. This includes determining the number of unobserved values between samples for the charts to perform as they would be expected if the samples were independent. Some recommendations are given

Process Control, the Bull Whip Effect and the Supply Chain

The purpose is to introduce the demand for statistical quality control practice in the supply chain environment. We show both the need and application of these measures, especially the need for multivariate quality concepts to reduce the costs of operating supply chains, to control the flow throughout the supply chain and in the dynamic behavior of supply chains to utilize concepts associated with multivariate methods and auto correlated variables. We note that the quality output is as important as the “bull whip” efficiency in the supply chain

Opportunistic Maintenance Based on CUSUM Control Charts

The use of a Ship Maintenance Management System is fundamental for the good performance of equipments and the entire platform. Over the systematic maintenance, the opportunistic maintenance is a concept that aims to minimize outages and costs preventing undesirable failures. To implement this kind of maintenance statistical methodologies must be used. The Cumulative Sum charts have a very good performance applied to processes control in quality control. We proposed the use of Modified Cumulative Sum control charts to equipment maintenance.The data under study are observations of cooling water and oil temperatures from a diesel generator. In the first phase, we will apply traditional control charts, and, in the second phase, the Cumulative charts with a certain Average Run Length will be used. Then we will compare the results and extract conclusions, presenting measures for improvement.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio