Сучасні методи аналізу при оцінці та прогнозуванні зайнятості у малому підприємництві регіонів

The features of the use of modern methods of cluster analysis, mathematical statistics, economic and mathematical modeling methods in assessing employment in small business were studied. The methodical approach to the assessment of employment in small business based on scientifically-based analysis of its provisions, socio-economic status of the region and forecasting social and labor issues were worked out. The information base of research capacity, objectivity and similarity in measurement were defined. Проблеми формування та реалізації регіональної політики зайнятості населення через сприяння розвитку малого підприємництва заслуговують на особливу увагу та дослідження. Саме через це метою даної статті є визначення основних методичних підходів щодо оцінки стану та тенденцій зайнятості у сфері малого підприємництва на регіональному рівні. У статті досліджуються особливості використання сучасних методів кластерного аналізу, математичної статистики, економіко-математичного моделювання та прогнозування при оцінці зайнятості у малому підприємництві. Розроблено методичний підхід до оцінки стану зайнятості населення у сфері малого підприємництва на основі науково обґрунтованого аналізу його положення, соціально-економічного стану регіону та прогнозування соціально-трудової сфери. Визначено інформаційну базу дослідження за об’ємом, об’єктивністю та схожістю виміру. Запропонована методика може бути використана при аналізі ступеню ефективності використання трудових ресурсів регіонів, для виявлення зв’язків рівня офіційної зайнятості у сфері малого підприємництва з тими факторами, під впливом яких вона формується, обґрунтування пріоритетних заходів програми сприяння зайнятості населення, розробки механізмів взаємодії між органами виконавчої та законодавчої влади регіонів

How much exposure to English is necessary for a bilingual toddler to perform like a monolingual peer in language tests?

Background Bilingual children are under-referred due to an ostensible expectation that they lag behind their monolingual peers in their English acquisition. The recommendations of the Royal College of Speech and Language Therapists (RCSLT) state that bilingual children should be assessed in both the languages known by the children. However, despite these recommendations, a majority of speech and language professionals report that they assess bilingual children only in English as bilingual children come from a wide array of language backgrounds and standardized language measures are not available for the majority of these. Moreover, even when such measures do exist, they are not tailored for bilingual children. Aims It was asked whether a cut-off exists in the proportion of exposure to English at which one should expect a bilingual toddler to perform as well as a monolingual on a test standardized for monolingual English-speaking children. Methods & Procedures Thirty-five bilingual 2;6-year-olds exposed to British English plus an additional language and 36 British monolingual toddlers were assessed on the auditory component of the Preschool Language Scale, British Picture Vocabulary Scale and an object-naming measure. All parents completed the Oxford Communicative Development Inventory (Oxford CDI) and an exposure questionnaire that assessed the proportion of English in the language input. Where the CDI existed in the bilingual's additional language, these data were also collected. Outcomes & Results Hierarchical regression analyses found the proportion of exposure to English to be the main predictor of the performance of bilingual toddlers. Bilingual toddlers who received 60% exposure to English or more performed like their monolingual peers on all measures. K-means cluster analyses and Levene variance tests confirmed the estimated English exposure cut-off at 60% for all language measures. Finally, for one additional language for which we had multiple participants, additional language CDI production scores were significantly inversely related to the amount of exposure to English. Conclusions & Implications Typically developing 2;6-year-olds who are bilingual in English and an additional language and who hear English 60% of the time or more, perform equivalently to their typically developing monolingual peers

Labor potential of the rural territories : state and development

In view of the existing disproportions between the sizes of rural territories and the large number of inhabitants of these territories, the assessment of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of labor potential (LP) becomes more up-to-date than ever. The problem of LP evaluation is related to ensuring the food security of the country and determining the professional and qualification features of the population to produce the basic agricultural products. The purpose of this study is to develop a method for calculating the cumulative index of labor potential development (CILPD) of the rural dwellers. The following methods are used in the article: abstract logic, document analysis, economics and statistics. The main outcome of the research is the clustering of Russian regions on the basis of the auctorial computation methodology of the rural population CILPD. The authors performed ranking of the territorial entities of the Russian Federation (RF) in the three types of clusters: those with high value of CILPD, those with mid-value of CILPD, and those with low value of CILPD. Computation of the rural population CILPD were made in respect to all Federal Districts and territorial entities of the RF. The results of the ILPD computations make it possible to identify the problematic regions with the low LP development level and to examine the negative trends on the basis of a number of indicators, which can represent the grounds for targeted steps for moderation and elimination of negative trends in the sphere of LP development of the rural population.peer-reviewe

Development of Small and Medium-Sized Regional Enterprises: Creation of Priority Areas (the Case of Sverdlovsk Region)

This article presents the results of the research which deals with the current level of development of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Sverdlovsk region. The study analyses the statistics of entrepreneurship development as well as Russian and international experience in this sphere. It also includes a sociological survey of entrepreneurs’ satisfaction with the business climate in the region. The research was aimed at elaborating guidelines for the long-term development of a regional entrepreneurship support system. This system seeks to facilitate the implementation of the ‘Strategy for the Development of Small and Medium Enterprises in Sverdlovsk Region before 2030’. As a result, an amalgam of strategic responses for the development of SMEs is presented. The completed response comprises measures intended to address the problems entrepreneurs face by developing SME support tools; to solve the endemic problems of the sector by improving the system of regional SME support; and to promote the realization of concrete priority areas for entrepreneurship development.The research work was carried out in collaboration with the Ural Federal University n.a. the First President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin and OOO “Analytical Centre Expert-Ural’” at the request of Sverdlovsk Regional Entrepreneurship Support Fund. The research was conducted in the period of September-November 2014. The state programme of Sverdlovsk region ‘Development of Industry and Science in Sverdlovsk Region Before 2020’ (approved by the Order of Sverdlovsk government of 24 October 2013 № 1293-ПП)

Innovative Potential of Russian Regions: Analysis of Formation of Regional Clusters Connected by Technological Chains

The modern era is characterized by irreversible transformation processes of the economy. First, it is the fall in hydrocarbon prices, which will stimulate the weakening of the economies of oil and gas-dependent regions.  Secondly, the fourth technological order began to transform into the fifth, which means that the classical production instead of the main centers of value creation are transformed into engineering infrastructure. Third, the globalization of markets defeats any attempt to close borders, which means that in order to achieve success, it is initially necessary to focus on global highly competitive markets, not only on food, but also on labor, knowledge and technology markets.Correlation analysis shows that almost all countries of the world with a developed high-income economy, at the same time top the list of the most innovative States, which once again confirms the action of these trends.Analyzing the economic prospects of Russia, it is important to recognize that the rate of processing and export of petroleum products, the preservation and development of traditional industries, as well as the localization of supply chains are not able to provide the country with economic growth and bring it closer to the most developed economies of the world.In this article we consider innovative development of subjects of Russia. Problems and prospects of innovative development of real sector of economy of regions are revealed. Thus, thanks to a comprehensive study of the motives of global supply chains, recommendations are made for the creation of innovative clusters to improve the economy of Russian regions

Analysing Timelines of National Histories across Wikipedia Editions: A Comparative Computational Approach

Portrayals of history are never complete, and each description inherently exhibits a specific viewpoint and emphasis. In this paper, we aim to automatically identify such differences by computing timelines and detecting temporal focal points of written history across languages on Wikipedia. In particular, we study articles related to the history of all UN member states and compare them in 30 language editions. We develop a computational approach that allows to identify focal points quantitatively, and find that Wikipedia narratives about national histories (i) are skewed towards more recent events (recency bias) and (ii) are distributed unevenly across the continents with significant focus on the history of European countries (Eurocentric bias). We also establish that national historical timelines vary across language editions, although average interlingual consensus is rather high. We hope that this paper provides a starting point for a broader computational analysis of written history on Wikipedia and elsewhere

Ways to improve the competitiveness of the economic complex of the Republic of Mordovia

The economic development of the Republic of Mordovia from 1998 to 2013 is analyzed in the article in the context of federal districts of the Russian Federation and regions of the Volga Federal District, the main trends and specifics of the development of economic complex of the Republic of Mordovia are established in comparison with those regions; key factors that affect the level of competitiveness of the regional economic complex of the Republic of Mordovia are determined; the main directions and measures to improve the competitiveness of the economic complex of the region are determined, considering economic, innovative and infrastructure opportunities that conform to the applicable program documents regulating the social and economic development of the Republic of Mordovia. In the article conclusions are made on the need for solving the problem of increasing the competitiveness of the regional economy through the use of its innovation and infrastructure capacities and the possibility of using the experience of the Republic of Mordovia in the implementation of this approach by other subjects of the Russian Federation with the same economic conditions as well as by relatively problem regions that don't have their own resource potential.peer-reviewe

Zatrudnienie w Polsce 2006: Produktywnosc dla pracy

This book constitutes a follow-up and extension of Employment in Poland 2005. In this issue we analyse the influence of demand-side factors on Polish labour market and especially so from the macroeconomic and regional perspectives. We begin with macroeconomic look at the labour markets in eight – out of ten – states which joined the EU in 2004. We focus on identifying aggregate disturbances which had a crucial influence on the economic fluctuations within the CEE region in the period 1994-2005, and we assess to what extent these disturbances are responsible for different dynamics of unemployment and employment trends in the examined countries and to what extent different fiscal and monetary approaches adopted at that time contributed to remedy these disturbances. The key finding resulting is that the relatively most significant decrease in employment and increase in unemployment levels in Europe, which came about in Poland after the year 2000, are due to the idiosyncratic decrease in return on capital and total factor productivity [TFP] dynamics. We also find that, although the policy-mix adopted in the above period was not the direct cause for the slowdown, its role in accommodating the shock was probably moderately negative. Then we study regional differences in the labour market in Poland in the period 2000-2005. We analyse aggregate data and identify microeconomic factors affecting trends in job creation and destruction. We group the NUTS4 regions in Poland in six homogenous clusters and find that in the period 2000-2005 no significant changes in the labour market indicators occurred either between clusters or between voivodeships (NUTS2 regions). This is so because the direction and depth of fluctuations on the regional scale were generally shaped by aggregate shocks which affected the economy as a whole. Moreover, the above period saw a greater differentiation in terms of productivity and thus, in most parts of Poland, increasing employment and unemployment rates are due to the development of labour-intensive manufacturing. We argue that only the largest urban conglomerations in Poland have adopted the development model which supports high economic growth in medium and long term. In third part of the study we focus on spatial mobility of Polish workers. In case of both internal and international migrations we demonstrate that economic factors determine significantly decisions about changing place of residence and that the key incentive to migrate is higher wages in the destination location and a relatively worse situation in the labour market in the region of origin. We also estimate the scale of international migration from Poland, which indicate that the number of people who stayed abroad for more than two months in the year 2005 was higher by approximately 165,000-379,000 people than before EU accession, due to one-time increase in migration flows. Moreover, we point out that international migration is mostly seasonal and that emigrants retain strong ties with their homeland. As for internal migration, we argue that its aggregate intensity is relatively modest and we emphasise that although in general the population moves from smaller to larger conglomerates, the limited scale of these movements makes the progress in urbanisation being slow and agglomerations less numerous than in other EU member states. In the long run, this may constitute an obstacle for real convergence to the most developed EU countries. Finally we scrutinize work in the non-observed economy (NOE) in Poland. According to various methodologies we asses the NOE output at 15-30 per cent of the GDP, and we find that the main reasons behind the existence of the grey economy in Poland are overly burdensome fiscal policy and excessively restrictive economic regulations. We close the report with demonstrating links between areas we studied and implications for labour market and economic policy in Poland.Poland; unemployment; employment; transition countries; labour market shocks; unemployment persistance; regional disparities; labour migration; informal employment