Models and Algorithms for Addressing Travel Time Variability: Applications from Optimal Path Finding and Traffic Equilibrium Problems

An optimal path finding problem and a traffic equilibrium problem are two important, fundamental, and interrelated topics in the transportation research field. Under travel time variability, the road networks are considered as stochastic, where the link travel times are treated as random variables with known probability density functions. By considering the effect of travel time variability and corresponding risk-taking behavior of the travelers, this dissertation proposes models and algorithms for addressing travel time variability with applications from optimal path finding and traffic equilibrium problems. Specifically, two new optimal path finding models and two novel traffic equilibrium models are proposed in stochastic networks. To adaptively determine a reliable path with the minimum travel time budget required to meet the user-specified reliability threshold α, an adaptive α-reliable path finding model is proposed. It is formulated as a chance constrained model under a dynamic programming framework. Then, a discrete-time algorithm is developed based on the properties of the proposed model. In addition to accounting for the reliability aspect of travel time variability, the α-reliable mean-excess path finding model further concerns the unreliability aspect of the late trips beyond the travel time budget. It is formulated as a stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear program. To solve this difficult problem, a practical double relaxation procedure is developed. By recognizing travelers are not only interested in saving their travel time but also in reducing their risk of being late, a α-reliable mean-excess traffic equilibrium (METE) model is proposed. Furthermore, a stochastic α-reliable mean-excess traffic equilibrium (SMETE) model is developed by incorporating the travelers’ perception error, where the travelers’ route choice decisions are determined by the perceived distribution of the stochastic travel time. Both models explicitly examine the effects of both reliability and unreliability aspects of travel time variability in a network equilibrium framework. They are both formulated as a variational inequality (VI) problem and solved by a route-based algorithm based on the modified alternating direction method. In conclusion, this study explores the effects of the various aspects (reliability and unreliability) of travel time variability on travelers’ route choice decision process by considering their risk preferences. The proposed models provide novel views of the optimal path finding problem and the traffic equilibrium problem under an uncertain environment, and the proposed solution algorithms enable potential applicability for solving practical problems

Continuity of the Effective Path Delay Operator for Networks Based on the Link Delay Model

This paper is concerned with a dynamic traffic network performance model, known as dynamic network loading (DNL), that is frequently employed in the modeling and computation of analytical dynamic user equilibrium (DUE). As a key component of continuous-time DUE models, DNL aims at describing and predicting the spatial-temporal evolution of traffic flows on a network that is consistent with established route and departure time choices of travelers, by introducing appropriate dynamics to flow propagation, flow conservation, and travel delays. The DNL procedure gives rise to the path delay operator, which associates a vector of path flows (path departure rates) with the corresponding path travel costs. In this paper, we establish strong continuity of the path delay operator for networks whose arc flows are described by the link delay model (Friesz et al., 1993). Unlike result established in Zhu and Marcotte (2000), our continuity proof is constructed without assuming a priori uniform boundedness of the path flows. Such a more general continuity result has a few important implications to the existence of simultaneous route-and-departure choice DUE without a priori boundedness of path flows, and to any numerical algorithm that allows convergence to be rigorously analyzed.Comment: 12 pages, 1 figur

User equilibrium traffic network assignment with stochastic travel times and late arrival penalty

The classical Wardrop user equilibrium (UE) assignment model assumes traveller choices are based on fixed, known travel times, yet these times are known to be rather variable between trips, both within and between days; typically, then, only mean travel times are represented. Classical stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) methods allow the mean travel times to be differentially perceived across the population, yet in a conventional application neither the UE or SUE approach recognises the travel times to be inherently variable. That is to say, there is no recognition that drivers risk arriving late at their destinations, and that this risk may vary across different paths of the network and according to the arrival time flexibility of the traveller. Recent work on incorporating risky elements into the choice process is seen either to neglect the link to the arrival constraints of the traveller, or to apply only to restricted problems with parallel alternatives and inflexible travel time distributions. In the paper, an alternative approach is described based on the ‘schedule delay’ paradigm, penalising late arrival under fixed departure times. The approach allows flexible travel time densities, which can be fitted to actual surveillance data, to be incorporated. A generalised formulation of UE is proposed, termed a Late Arrival Penalised UE (LAPUE). Conditions for the existence and uniqueness of LAPUE solutions are considered, as well as methods for their computation. Two specific travel time models are then considered, one based on multivariate Normal arc travel times, and an extended model to represent arc incidents, based on mixture distributions of multivariate Normals. Several illustrative examples are used to examine the sensitivity of LAPUE solutions to various input parameters, and in particular its comparison with UE predictions. Finally, paths for further research are discussed, including the extension of the model to include elements such as distributed arrival time constraints and penalties

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationThis dissertation aims to develop an innovative and improved paradigm for real-time large-scale traffic system estimation and mobility optimization. To fully utilize heterogeneous data sources in a complex spatial environment, this dissertation proposes an integrated and unified estimation-optimization framework capable of interpreting different types of traffic measurements into various decision-making processes. With a particular emphasis on the end-to-end travel time prediction problem, this dissertation proposes an information-theoretic sensor location model that aims to maximize information gains from a set of point, point-to-point and probe sensors in a traffic network. After thoroughly examining a number of possible measures of information gain, this dissertation selects a path travel time prediction uncertainty criterion to construct a joint sensor location and travel time estimation/prediction framework. To better measure the quality of service for ransportation systems, this dissertation investigates the path travel time reliability from two perspectives: variability and robustness. Based on calibrated travel disutility functions, the path travel time variability in this research is represented by its standard deviation in addition to the mean travel time. To handle the nonlinear and nonadditive cost functions introduced by the quadratic forms of the standard deviation term, a novel Lagrangian substitution approach is introduced to estimate the lower bound of the most reliable path solution through solving a sequence of standard shortest path problems. To recognize the asymmetrical and heavy-tailed travel time distributions, this dissertation proposes Lagrangian relaxation based iterative search algorithms for finding the absolute and percentile robust shortest paths. Moreover, this research develops a sampling-based method to dynamically construct a proxy objective function in terms of travel time observations from multiple days. Comprehensive numerical experiment results with real-world travel time measurements show that 10-20 iterations of standard shortest path algorithms for the reformulated models can offer a very small relative duality gap of about 2-6%, for both reliability measure models. This broadly-defined research has successfully addressed a number of theoretically challenging and practically important issues for building the next-generation Advanced Traveler Information Systems, and is expected to offer a rich foundation beneficial to the model and algorithmic development of sensor network design, traffic forecasting and personalized navigation

A routing game in networks with lossy links

International audienceStandard assumptions in the theory of routing games are that costs are additive over links and that there is flow conservation. The assumptions typically hold when the costs represent delays. We introduce here a routing game where losses occur on links in a way that may depend on the congestion. In that case both assumptions fail. We study a load balancing network and identify a Kameda type paradox in which by adding capacity, all players suffer larger loss rates

The general traffic assignment problem: a proximal point method for equilibrium computation with applications to the demand adjustment problem

An adaptation of the proximal algorithm for the traffic assignment problem under a user equilibrium formulation for a general asymmetric traffic network is presented in this paper. It follows the recently published results of Pennanen regarding convergence under non monotonicity. As it is well known the problem can be formulated as a variational inequality and the algorithmic solutions developed up to date guarantee convergence only under too restrictive conditions which are difficult to appear in practice. In this paper it is also discussed the possibility of including the algorithm on a demand adjustment problem formulated as a bilevel program with lower level traffic equilibrium constraints expressed as a variational inequality.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Continuity of the Effective Delay Operator for Networks Based on the Link Delay Model

This paper is concerned with a dynamic traffic network performance model, known as dynamic network loading (DNL), that is frequently employed in the modeling and computation of analytical dynamic user equilibrium (DUE). As a key component of continuous-time DUE models, DNL aims at describing and predicting the spatial-temporal evolution of traffic flows on a network that is consistent with established route and departure time choices of travelers, by introducing appropriate dynamics to flow propagation, flow conservation, and travel delays. The DNL procedure gives rise to the path delay operator, which associates a vector of path flows (path departure rates) with the corresponding path travel costs. In this paper, we establish strong continuity of the path delay operator for networks whose arc flows are described by the link delay model (Friesz et al., Oper Res 41(1):80–91, 1993; Carey, Networks and Spatial Economics 1(3):349–375, 2001). Unlike the result established in Zhu and Marcotte (Transp Sci 34(4):402–414, 2000), our continuity proof is constructed without assuming a priori uniform boundedness of the path flows. Such a more general continuity result has a few important implications to the existence of simultaneous route-and-departure-time DUE without a priori boundedness of path flows, and to any numerical algorithm that allows convergence to be rigorously analyzed