A cyclic time-dependent Markov process to model daily patterns in wind turbine power production

Wind energy is becoming a top contributor to the renewable energy mix, which raises potential reliability issues for the grid due to the fluctuating nature of its source. To achieve adequate reserve commitment and to promote market participation, it is necessary to provide models that can capture daily patterns in wind power production. This paper presents a cyclic inhomogeneous Markov process, which is based on a three-dimensional state-space (wind power, speed and direction). Each time-dependent transition probability is expressed as a Bernstein polynomial. The model parameters are estimated by solving a constrained optimization problem: The objective function combines two maximum likelihood estimators, one to ensure that the Markov process long-term behavior reproduces the data accurately and another to capture daily fluctuations. A convex formulation for the overall optimization problem is presented and its applicability demonstrated through the analysis of a case-study. The proposed model is capable of reproducing the diurnal patterns of a three-year dataset collected from a wind turbine located in a mountainous region in Portugal. In addition, it is shown how to compute persistence statistics directly from the Markov process transition matrices. Based on the case-study, the power production persistence through the daily cycle is analysed and discussed

Convex Combinatorial Optimization

We introduce the convex combinatorial optimization problem, a far reaching generalization of the standard linear combinatorial optimization problem. We show that it is strongly polynomial time solvable over any edge-guaranteed family, and discuss several applications

Computationally Efficient Trajectory Optimization for Linear Control Systems with Input and State Constraints

This paper presents a trajectory generation method that optimizes a quadratic cost functional with respect to linear system dynamics and to linear input and state constraints. The method is based on continuous-time flatness-based trajectory generation, and the outputs are parameterized using a polynomial basis. A method to parameterize the constraints is introduced using a result on polynomial nonpositivity. The resulting parameterized problem remains linear-quadratic and can be solved using quadratic programming. The problem can be further simplified to a linear programming problem by linearization around the unconstrained optimum. The method promises to be computationally efficient for constrained systems with a high optimization horizon. As application, a predictive torque controller for a permanent magnet synchronous motor which is based on real-time optimization is presented.Comment: Proceedings of the American Control Conference (ACC), pp. 1904-1909, San Francisco, USA, June 29 - July 1, 201

Nonlinear Integer Programming

Research efforts of the past fifty years have led to a development of linear integer programming as a mature discipline of mathematical optimization. Such a level of maturity has not been reached when one considers nonlinear systems subject to integrality requirements for the variables. This chapter is dedicated to this topic. The primary goal is a study of a simple version of general nonlinear integer problems, where all constraints are still linear. Our focus is on the computational complexity of the problem, which varies significantly with the type of nonlinear objective function in combination with the underlying combinatorial structure. Numerous boundary cases of complexity emerge, which sometimes surprisingly lead even to polynomial time algorithms. We also cover recent successful approaches for more general classes of problems. Though no positive theoretical efficiency results are available, nor are they likely to ever be available, these seem to be the currently most successful and interesting approaches for solving practical problems. It is our belief that the study of algorithms motivated by theoretical considerations and those motivated by our desire to solve practical instances should and do inform one another. So it is with this viewpoint that we present the subject, and it is in this direction that we hope to spark further research.Comment: 57 pages. To appear in: M. J\"unger, T. Liebling, D. Naddef, G. Nemhauser, W. Pulleyblank, G. Reinelt, G. Rinaldi, and L. Wolsey (eds.), 50 Years of Integer Programming 1958--2008: The Early Years and State-of-the-Art Surveys, Springer-Verlag, 2009, ISBN 354068274