Consensus as a Nash Equilibrium of a Dynamic Game

Consensus formation in a social network is modeled by a dynamic game of a prescribed duration played by members of the network. Each member independently minimizes a cost function that represents his/her motive. An integral cost function penalizes a member's differences of opinion from the others as well as from his/her own initial opinion, weighted by influence and stubbornness parameters. Each member uses its rate of change of opinion as a control input. This defines a dynamic non-cooperative game that turns out to have a unique Nash equilibrium. Analytic explicit expressions are derived for the opinion trajectory of each member for two representative cases obtained by suitable assumptions on the graph topology of the network. These trajectories are then examined under different assumptions on the relative sizes of the influence and stubbornness parameters that appear in the cost functions.Comment: 7 pages, 9 figure, Pre-print from the Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Signal Image Technology and Internet-based Systems (SITIS), 201

Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure

Large-scale transitions in societies are associated with both individual behavioural change and restructuring of the social network. These two factors have often been considered independently, yet recent advances in social network research challenge this view. Here we show that common features of societal marginalization and clustering emerge naturally during transitions in a co-evolutionary adaptive network model. This is achieved by explicitly considering the interplay between individual interaction and a dynamic network structure in behavioural selection. We exemplify this mechanism by simulating how smoking behaviour and the network structure get reconfigured by changing social norms. Our results are consistent with empirical findings: The prevalence of smoking was reduced, remaining smokers were preferentially connected among each other and formed increasingly marginalised clusters. We propose that self-amplifying feedbacks between individual behaviour and dynamic restructuring of the network are main drivers of the transition. This generative mechanism for co-evolution of individual behaviour and social network structure may apply to a wide range of examples beyond smoking.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

Evolutionary Microeconomics and the Theory of Expectations

This paper sketches a framework for the analysis of expectations in an evolutionary microeconomics. The core proposition is that expectations form a network structure, and that the geometry of that network will provide a suitable guide as to the dynamical behaviour of that network. It is a development towards a theory of the computational processes that construct the data set of expectations. The role of probability theory is examined in this context. Two key issues will be explored: (1) on the nature and stability of expectations when they form as a complex network; and (2), the way in which this may be modelled within a multi-agent simulation platform. It is argued that multi-agent simulation (a-life) techniques provide an expedient analytical environment to study the dynamic nature of mass expectations, as generated or produced objects, in a way that bridges micro and macroeconomics.

The Dynamics of Public Opinion in Complex Networks

This paper studies the problem of public opinion formation and concentrates on the interplays among three factors: individual attributes, environmental influences and information flow. We present a simple model to analyze the dynamics of four types of networks. Our simulations suggest that regular communities establish not only local consensus, but also global diversity in public opinions. However, when small world networks, random networks, or scale-free networks model social relationships, the results are sensitive to the elasticity coefficient of environmental influences and the average connectivity of the type of network. For example, a community with a higher average connectivity has a higher probability of consensus. Yet, it is misleading to predict results merely based on the characteristic path length of networks. In the process of changing environmental influences and average connectivity, sensitive areas are discovered in the system. By sensitive areas we mean that interior randomness emerges and we cannot predict unequivocally how many opinions will remain upon reaching equilibrium. We also investigate the role of authoritative individuals in information control. While enhancing average connectivity facilitates the diffusion of the authoritative opinion, it makes individuals subject to disturbance from non-authorities as well. Thus, a moderate average connectivity may be preferable because then the public will most likely form an opinion that is parallel with the authoritative one. In a community with a scale-free structure, the influence of authoritative individuals keeps constant with the change of the average connectivity. Provided that the influence of individuals is proportional to the number of their acquaintances, the smallest percentage of authorities is required for a controlled consensus in a scale free network. This study shows that the dynamics of public opinion varies from community to community due to the different degree of impressionability of people and the distinct social network structure of the community.Public Opinion, Complex Network, Consensus, Agent-Based Model

An Approach Based on Particle Swarm Optimization for Inspection of Spacecraft Hulls by a Swarm of Miniaturized Robots

The remoteness and hazards that are inherent to the operating environments of space infrastructures promote their need for automated robotic inspection. In particular, micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact and structural fatigue are common sources of damage to spacecraft hulls. Vibration sensing has been used to detect structural damage in spacecraft hulls as well as in structural health monitoring practices in industry by deploying static sensors. In this paper, we propose using a swarm of miniaturized vibration-sensing mobile robots realizing a network of mobile sensors. We present a distributed inspection algorithm based on the bio-inspired particle swarm optimization and evolutionary algorithm niching techniques to deliver the task of enumeration and localization of an a priori unknown number of vibration sources on a simplified 2.5D spacecraft surface. Our algorithm is deployed on a swarm of simulated cm-scale wheeled robots. These are guided in their inspection task by sensing vibrations arising from failure points on the surface which are detected by on-board accelerometers. We study three performance metrics: (1) proximity of the localized sources to the ground truth locations, (2) time to localize each source, and (3) time to finish the inspection task given a 75% inspection coverage threshold. We find that our swarm is able to successfully localize the present so

Polarized consensus-based dynamics for optimization and sampling

In this paper we propose polarized consensus-based dynamics in order to make consensus-based optimization (CBO) and sampling (CBS) applicable for objective functions with several global minima or distributions with many modes, respectively. For this, we ``polarize'' the dynamics with a localizing kernel and the resulting model can be viewed as a bounded confidence model for opinion formation in the presence of common objective. Instead of being attracted to a common weighted mean as in the original consensus-based methods, which prevents the detection of more than one minimum or mode, in our method every particle is attracted to a weighted mean which gives more weight to nearby particles. We prove that in the mean-field regime the polarized CBS dynamics are unbiased for Gaussian targets. We also prove that in the zero temperature limit and for sufficiently well-behaved strongly convex objectives the solution of the Fokker--Planck equation converges in the Wasserstein-2 distance to a Dirac measure at the minimizer. Finally, we propose a computationally more efficient generalization which works with a predefined number of clusters and improves upon our polarized baseline method for high-dimensional optimization.Comment: Added mean-field convergence theore

Optimising routing and trustworthiness of ad hoc networks using swarm intelligence

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philsophy and awarded by Brunel UniversityThis thesis proposes different approaches to address routing and security of MANETs using swarm technology. The mobility and infrastructure-less of MANET as well as nodes misbehavior compose great challenges to routing and security protocols of such a network. The first approach addresses the problem of channel assignment in multichannel ad hoc networks with limited number of interfaces, where stable route are more preferred to be selected. The channel selection is based on link quality between the nodes. Geographical information is used with mapping algorithm in order to estimate and predict the links’ quality and routes life time, which is combined with Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm to find most stable route with high data rate. As a result, a better utilization of the channels is performed where the throughput increased up to 74% over ASAR protocol. A new smart data packet routing protocol is developed based on the River Formation Dynamics (RFD) algorithm. The RFD algorithm is a subset of swarm intelligence which mimics how rivers are created in nature. The protocol is a distributed swarm learning approach where data packets are smart enough to guide themselves through best available route in the network. The learning information is distributed throughout the nodes of the network. This information can be used and updated by successive data packets in order to maintain and find better routes. Data packets act like swarm agents (drops) where they carry their path information and update routing information without the need for backward agents. These data packets modify the routing information based on different network metrics. As a result, data packet can guide themselves through better routes. In the second approach, a hybrid ACO and RFD smart data packet routing protocol is developed where the protocol tries to find shortest path that is less congested to the destination. Simulation results show throughput improvement by 30% over AODV protocol and 13% over AntHocNet. Both delay and jitter have been improved more than 96% over AODV protocol. In order to overcome the problem of source routing introduced due to the use of the ACO algorithm, a solely RFD based distance vector protocol has been developed as a third approach. Moreover, the protocol separates reactive learned information from proactive learned information to add more reliability to data routing. To minimize the power consumption introduced due to the hybrid nature of the RFD routing protocol, a forth approach has been developed. This protocol tackles the problem of power consumption and adds packets delivery power minimization to the protocol based on RFD algorithm. Finally, a security model based on reputation and trust is added to the smart data packet protocol in order to detect misbehaving nodes. A trust system has been built based on the privilege offered by the RFD algorithm, where drops are always moving from higher altitude to lower one. Moreover, the distributed and undefined nature of the ad hoc network forces the nodes to obligate to cooperative behaviour in order not to be exposed. This system can easily and quickly detect misbehaving nodes according to altitude difference between active intermediate nodes

Secure and robust multi-constrained QoS aware routing algorithm for VANETs

Secure QoS routing algorithms are a fundamental part of wireless networks that aim to provide services with QoS and security guarantees. In Vehicular Ad hoc Networks (VANETs), vehicles perform routing functions, and at the same time act as end-systems thus routing control messages are transmitted unprotected over wireless channels. The QoS of the entire network could be degraded by an attack on the routing process, and manipulation of the routing control messages. In this paper, we propose a novel secure and reliable multi-constrained QoS aware routing algorithm for VANETs. We employ the Ant Colony Optimisation (ACO) technique to compute feasible routes in VANETs subject to multiple QoS constraints determined by the data traffic type. Moreover, we extend the VANET-oriented Evolving Graph (VoEG) model to perform plausibility checks on the exchanged routing control messages among vehicles. Simulation results show that the QoS can be guaranteed while applying security mechanisms to ensure a reliable and robust routing service