Recent unrest (2002–2015) imaged by space geodesy at the highest risk Chilean volcanoes: Villarrica, Llaima, and Calbuco (Southern Andes)

Villarrica, Llaima, and Calbuco volcanoes are the most active and dangerous volcanoes in the Southern Andes, and we use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations from multiple satellites (ERS-2, ENVISAT, ALOS, RADARSAT-2, COSMO-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X, Sentinel-1A and ALOS-2) to constrain ground deformation that spans episodes of unrest and eruption at all three volcanoes between 2002 and 2015. We find episodes of ground deformation at each volcano, which we invert using analytic elastic half space models to make some of the first geophysical inferences about the source depths of potential magma chambers. At Llaima, we interpret that the VEI 2 April 3, 2009 eruption was preceded by 6–15 cm of precursory ground uplift one month before from a source 5 km below the surface on the western side of the edifice. The VEI 2 March 3, 2015 Villarrica eruption was followed by a short lived uplift of 5 cm in the SE part of the volcano from a source depth of 6 km. The VEI 4 April 22–23, 2015 Calbuco eruption produced 12 cm of coeruptive subsidence from a source depth 8–11 km and offset 2 km S from the summit. Importantly, we do not find clear evidence that the January 1, 2008, the March 3, 2015 and April 22, 2015 eruptions at Llaima, Villarrica and Calbuco volcanoes were preceded by either transient or continuous ground uplift. There are several possible explanations for the lack of precursory deformation at each volcano – it is possible that any precursory deformation occurred only hours before the eruption (e.g., at Calbuco), pre-eruptive inflation was canceled by co-eruptive subsidence (as we inferred happened during the April 2009 Llaima eruption), the pre-eruptive deformation was too small to be detectable in areas with persistent topography correlated phase delays, pressurized source are deep, or that open-vent volcanoes like Villarrica and Llaima do not pressurize. At all three volcanoes, X and C band interferograms decorrelate in a few weeks due to vegetation, snow and ice, and have persistent atmospheric phase delays that we find cannot be reliably removed with available global weather models. The low number of SAR acquisitions therefore makes it challenging to reliably measure unaliased deformation. We recommend a multi-satellite observing strategy with short repeat periods, frequently acquired high-resolution digital elevation models, and with acquisitions during every satellite overflight that may improve the temporal resolution of measurements

Synthesis of global satellite observations of magmatic and volcanic deformation: implications for volcano monitoring & the lateral extent of magmatic domains

Global Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) measurements made over the past decades provide insights into the lateral extent of magmatic domains, and capture volcanic process on scales useful for volcano monitoring. Satellite-based SAR imagery has great potential for monitoring topographic change, the distribution of eruptive products and surface displacements (InSAR) at subaerial volcanoes. However, there are challenges in applying it routinely, as would be required for the reliable operational assessment of hazard. The deformation detectable depends upon satellite repeat time and swath widths, relative to the spatial and temporal scales of volcanological processes. We describe the characteristics of InSAR-measured volcano deformation over the past two decades, highlighting both the technique’s capabilities and its limitations as a monitoring tool. To achieve this, we draw on two global datasets of volcano deformation: the Smithsonian Institution Volcanoes of the World database and the Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics volcano deformation catalogue, as well as compiling some measurement characteristics and interpretations from the primary literature. We find that a higher proportion of InSAR observations capture non-eruptive and non-magmatic processes than those from ground-based instrument networks, and that both transient ( 5 years) deformation episodes are under-represented. However, satellite radar is already used to assess the development of extended periods of unrest and long-lasting eruptions, and improved spatial resolution and coverage have resulted in the detection of previously unrecognised deformation at both ends of the spatial scale (~ 10 to > 1000 km²). ‘Baseline’ records of past InSAR measurements, including ‘null’ results, are fundamental for any future interpretation of interferograms in terms of hazard‚ both by providing information about past deformation at an individual volcano, and for assessing the characteristics of deformation that are likely to be detectable (and undetectable) using InSAR. More than half of all InSAR deformation signals attributed to magmatic processes have sources in the shallow crust (< 5 km depth). While the depth distribution of InSAR-derived deformation sources is affected by measurement limitations, their lateral distribution provides information about the extent of active magmatic domains. Deformation is common (24% of all potentially magmatic events) at loci ≥5 km away from the nearest active volcanic vent. This demonstrates that laterally extensive active magmatic domains are not exceptional, but can comprise the shallowest part of trans-crustal magmatic systems in a range of volcanic settings

Towards coordinated regional multi-satellite InSAR volcano observations:results from the Latin America pilot project

Within Latin America, about 319 volcanoes have been active in the Holocene, but 202 of these volcanoes have no seismic, deformation or gas monitoring. Following the 2012 Santorini Report on satellite Earth Observation and Geohazards, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) developed a 4-year pilot project (2013-2017) to demonstrate how satellite observations can be used to monitor large numbers of volcanoes cost-effectively, particularly in areas with scarce instrumentation and/or difficult access. The pilot aims to improve disaster risk management (DRM) by working directly with the volcano observatories that are governmentally responsible for volcano monitoring as well as with the international space agencies (ESA, CSA, ASI, DLR, JAXA, NASA, CNES). The goal is to make sure that the most useful data are collected at each volcano following the guidelines of the Santorini report that observation frequency is related to volcano activity, and to communicate the results to the local institutions in a timely fashion. Here we highlight how coordinated multi-satellite observations have been used by volcano observatories to monitor volcanoes and respond to crises. Our primary tool is measurements of ground deformation made by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), which have been used in conjunction with other observations to determine the alert level at these volcanoes, served as an independent check on ground sensors, guided the deployment of ground instruments, and aided situational awareness. During this time period, we find 26 volcanoes deforming, including 18 of the 28 volcanoes that erupted – those eruptions without deformation were less than 2 on the VEI scale. Another 7 volcanoes were restless and the volcano observatories requested satellite observations, but no deformation was detected. We describe the lessons learned about the data products and information that are most needed by the volcano observatories in the different countries using information collected by questionnaires. We propose a practical strategy for regional to global satellite volcano monitoring for use by volcano observatories in Latin America and elsewhere to realize the vision of the Santorini report

Assessment of landslide susceptibility in Structurally Complex Formations by integration of different A-DInSAR techniques

Instability events are recurring phenomena in Southern Italy due to its geological history and tectonic-geomorphological evolution leading to the occurrence of several formations identified as Structurally Complex Formations (SCFs; Esu, 1977) in a territory mainly composed of densely populated areas also in mountainous and hilly regions. SCFs are clay-dominant terrains that, usually, give origin from very-slow to extremely-slow phenomena (Cruden and Varnes, 1996) with a long evolutionary history made up of multiple reactivations that makes difficult their identification, monitoring and susceptibility evaluation. The study has been carried out from point-wise (Bisaccia, Costa della Gaveta and Nerano cases) to wide areas (Palermo province case) where crops out SCFs as the Termini sandstones Formation (CARG, 2011), the Varicoloured Clays of Calaggio Formation (Ciaranfi et al., 1973), the Varicoloured Clays Unit (Mattioni et al., 2006) the Sicilide Unit (Vitale and Ciarcia, 2013 and references therein), the Numidian Flysch (Johansson et al., 1998) and the Corleone Calcarenites (Catalano R. et al., 2002). The aim of this thesis is to produce updated Landslide Inventory Maps and, whenever possible, Landslide Susceptibility Maps following a new approach during the landslide mapping and landslide monitoring stages. The Landslide Inventory Maps have taken into account the combination of geological, geomorphological, and stereoscopic surveys, as well as engineering geological investigations, namely conventional techniques. In addition innovative Advanced-Differential Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (A-DInSAR) techniques have been used: the Coherent Pixels Technique – CPT (Mora et al., 2003; Blanco et al., 2008), the Intermittent Small BAseline Subset – ISBAS (Sowter et al., 2013) and the Ground-Based Synthetic Aperture Radar. Finally, the Weight of Evidence method (van Westen, 1993) has been chosen to generate the Landslide Susceptibility Maps only for the point-wise studies. In the case of Nerano (Province of Naples), the ISBAS analysis on ENVISAT images (for the period 2003-2010) has been carried out and compared with inclinometric and rainfall data. These have revealed several reactivations of a rotational slide + earth flow (Cruden and Varnes, 1996) that involves reworked clay olistostromes and limestone olistoliths inside the Termini sandstones Formation; even in recent years the landslide, despite many engineering works, has given evidence of a continuing activity. The results highlight a very slow movement in the detachment zone (<1 mm/yr), which assumes slightly higher values in the accumulation area (5 mm/yr). The Landslide Susceptibility Map confirms the high levels in the flow track and the accumulation area. In Bisaccia (Province of Avellino), a conglomeratic slab undergoes a Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation (DSGSD; Pasuto and Soldati, 2013 and references therein) due to the bedrock consolidation, made of the Varicoloured Clays of Calaggio Formation. Here the CPT processing on ENVISAT images (covering the period between 2002 and 2010), displays a vertical displacement for the town center, suffering a progressively increasing velocity from the southern (4.2 mm/yr) to the northern (15.5 mm/yr) portion of the slab that localizes four different sectors. The pattern is confirmed from the building damage map. The landslides susceptibility reaches the highest values in the adjacent valleys and at the edges of each sector. Multiple datasets have been employed for the Costa della Gaveta case-study (Province of Potenza), these encompass: ENVISAT, TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed constellations together with Ground Based Synthetic Aperture Radar (GBSAR). The A-DInSAR data have been compared with stereoscopic analysis and the available rainfall and inclinometric data. The analysis allows for the identification of 16 landslides (complexes and earth flows; Cruden and Varnes, 1996) developed in the Varicoloured Clays Unit that show, according to all the existing instruments, velocities between 1.5 and 30 mm/yr. The western side of Costa della Gaveta slope is the portion which suffers the highest landslides susceptibility levels. In the Province of Palermo (northwestern Sicily) information deriving from A-DInSAR processing, specifically the ISBAS technique, have been focused on three subareas (Piana degli Albanesi, Marineo and Ventimiglia di Sicilia) for a total extension of 182 Km2 where standard A-DInSAR algorithms showed limitations due to the widespread presence of densely vegetated areas. The radar-detected landslides have been validated through field geomorphological mapping and stereoscopic analysis proving to be highly consistent especially with slow phenomena. The outcome has allowed to confirm 152 preexisting landslides, to detect 81 new events and to change 133 previously mapped landslides, modifying their typology, boundary and/or state of activity. The study demonstrates how a better knowledge of landslide development and their cause-effect mechanisms provided by new Earth Observation techniques is useful for Landslide Inventory and Susceptibility Maps. The research project has been carried out at the University of Naples "Federico II", including nine months (September 2013 – May 2014) spent in the United Kingdom, at the British Geological Survey under the supervision of Dr. Francesca Cigna and Dr. Jordan Colm and at the University of Nottingham (Department of Civil Engineering), under the supervision of Dr. Andrew Sowter where the ISBAS technique has been recently developed