The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie

Estimating snow cover from publicly available images

In this paper we study the problem of estimating snow cover in mountainous regions, that is, the spatial extent of the earth surface covered by snow. We argue that publicly available visual content, in the form of user generated photographs and image feeds from outdoor webcams, can both be leveraged as additional measurement sources, complementing existing ground, satellite and airborne sensor data. To this end, we describe two content acquisition and processing pipelines that are tailored to such sources, addressing the specific challenges posed by each of them, e.g., identifying the mountain peaks, filtering out images taken in bad weather conditions, handling varying illumination conditions. The final outcome is summarized in a snow cover index, which indicates for a specific mountain and day of the year, the fraction of visible area covered by snow, possibly at different elevations. We created a manually labelled dataset to assess the accuracy of the image snow covered area estimation, achieving 90.0% precision at 91.1% recall. In addition, we show that seasonal trends related to air temperature are captured by the snow cover index.Comment: submitted to IEEE Transactions on Multimedi