Storm Surges: Phenomena, Forecasting and Scenarios of Change

AbstractStorm surges are behind the geophysical risk of short term and abrupt inundating low-lying coastal regions known along most coasts of the world. They are related to meteorological phenomena, mostly wind storms. Storm surges represent a challenge for science and risk management with respect to short term forecasts of specific events but also with long-term changes of the statistics of storm surges due to anthropogenic global climate change, sinking coasts and estuarine water works. Storm surges are expected to become more severe in the coming decades and centuries because of ongoing and expected accelerated mean sea level, and much less so because of more energetic wind storms

Ontology in modernity risks

Master's thesis in Risk management and societal safetySocietal security is a concept of increasing significance. It is tightly connected to risk, since both concepts deal with the future. The understanding of risk is crucial in risk assessment, because it constitute the basis for legislation, control and regulation. Ontology is essential, because different ontological foundations will be materialized in different understandings of risk, risk assessment, risk management and thus appear as different ontological foundation for societal risk governance. Thus my research questions are “What is the significance of ontological foundation in risk science? How does relational ontology impact risk assessment and risk management?” In socio-technical research, objective or subjective ontology dominates. Relational ontology often is absent, which contributes to reductionistic risk assessment. Modernity risks are, however, a relational phenomenon, and must be understood accordingly. Analysis of the theory of the Risk Society illustrates how different ontologies capture different aspects of modernity risks. Clearly the relational aspect is “visible” by revealing the structuration between the structure and actor; where the structure is internalized in the actor, while the actors produce and maintain the structure. Modernity risks are the products of structuration. This has implications for risk assessment and risk management by connotations to risks. Connotations are a product of structuration and constitute different building blocks with patterns of thoughts about risks which are established by objective physical and social structures, subjective preferences and relational structuration. The size and content of the building blocks connotations consist of depend on what risks are involved and constitute a pattern which is socially constructed and appear as implicit guidelines for how to assess and manage risks. Connotations are thus important to make explicit and understand the constructions of societal regulation and control and to understand the production of modernity risks, which can appear as a result of inadequate connotations of risk. The interesting processes are therefore elements that lie behind and beyond the explicit expressed. These elements are relational and thus have to be assessed in a relational ontology to capture the structuration. Research which catches the structuration can elaborate and make visible the structuration and thus increase the consciousness for how risk appears, as well as the construction of risk assessment and risk management. Of special interest are connotations for important decision-makers in society, which influences the societal risk governance. Connotations as a relational phenomenon are thus essential in risk science. In brief, ontological foundations in risk science are crucial guidelines for how to understand risk, develop risk assessments, and advance risk management. The relational ontology can capture the structuration between the structure and the actor, and uncover connotations of risks. This can extend the knowledge of how certain risk assessments are constructed and how they affect risk management. For further research there is a need to empirical investigate the significance of connotations in risk assessment, and to develop methods of uncovering these connotations

Stock Market Portfolio Management: A Walk-through

Stock market portfolio management has remained successful in drawing attention of number of researchers from the fields of computer science, finance and mathematics all around the world since years. Successfully managing stock market portfolio is the prime concern for investors and fund managers in the financial markets. This paper is aimed to provide a walk-through to the stock market portfolio management. This paper deals with questions like what is stock market portfolio, how to manage it, what are the objectives behind managing it, what are the challenges in managing it. As each coin has two sides, each portfolio has two elements – risk and return. Regarding this, Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory, or Risk-Return Model, to manage portfolio is analyzed in detail along with its criticisms, efficient frontier, and suggested state-of-the-art enhancements in terms of various constraints and risk measures. This paper also discusses other models to manage stock market portfolio such as Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) Model. DOI: 10.17762/ijritcc2321-8169.150613

The development of a Quality Risk Management solution designed to facilitate compliance with the risk-based qualification, validation and change control GMP requirement of the EU

This research work was concerned with investigating the risk-based regulatory requirements that are currently in place in the European Union governing the manufacture of medicinal products. The main goal of this research was to develop a practical Quality Risk Management methodology that served as a solution for facilitating compliance with the EU GMP requirements in the area of risk-based Qualification, Validation and Change Control, and which was fully in line with the principles and guidance of ICH Q9, on Quality Risk Management. Following extensive testing and evaluation activities with a range of key stakeholders including the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector in Ireland, the UK and the US, and GMP Inspectors from a wide range of countries, this work resulted in a formal, readily usable, rigorous and complete Quality Risk Management Methodology. It is designed to facilitate compliance with the risk based qualification, validation and change control GMP requirements of the EU, and is fully in line with ICH Quality Risk Management principles and guidelines. A practical and detailed training programme on the use of this methodology is also presented. This provides comprehensive training materials for facilitating training activities, as well as a documented strategy for the provision of such training in a timely and resource-efficient manner. In a comprehensive benchmarking exercise, this approach to Quality Risk Management was compared with the application of Risk Management in two industries that are considered mature and advanced in their application of Risk Management principles and methodologies. These were the US aeronautics industry, as represented by the work of the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) and the US nuclear power generation industry, as represented by the work of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The methodology performed very favourably in this benchmarking exercise, and many examples of common best practices were identified. The Quality Risk Management methodology developed in this work has attracted wide interest, not only from within the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, but also from the GMP Inspectorates of several countries, from academic bodies involved in the teaching of pharmacy and pharmaceutical-related sciences in Ireland, from the publishers of research journals involved in pharmaceutical science, among others. The methodology has already found application in several multinational pharmaceutical manufacturing and other companies, and has served as a valuable educational and training resource in the practical application of Quality Risk Management in the GMP environment. The application of formal Quality Risk Management methodologies in the EU pharmaceutical manufacturing environment is still at its early stages, relative to that in other industries, and several opportunities to further develop and build upon this research work has been identified. The intention behind these recommendations for further work is to promote the continued development of Quality Risk Management methodologies and approaches within the GMP environment, so that the risks posed by medicine to patients and animals may continually be reduced and managed

Application of Predicted Models in Debt Management: Developing a Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Customer Risk at EDP Comercial

Internship Report presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced Analytics, specialization in Data ScienceThis report is a result of a nine-month internship at EDP Comercial where the main project of research was the application of artificial intelligence tools in the field of debt management. Debt management involves a set of strategies and processes aimed at reducing or eliminating debt and the use of artificial intelligence has shown great potential to optimize these processes and minimize the risk of debt for individuals and organizations. In terms of monitoring and controlling the creditworthiness and quality of clients, debt management has mainly been responsive and reactive, attempting to recover losses after a client has become delinquent. There is a gap in the knowledge of how to proactively identify at-risk accounts before they fall behind on payments. To avoid the constant reactive response in the field, it was developed a machine-learning algorithm that predicts the risk of a client becoming in debt by analyzing their scorecard, which measures the quality of a client based on their infringement history. After preprocessing the data, XGBoost was implemented to a dataset of 3M customers with at least one active contract on EDP, on electricity or gas. Hyperparameter tuning was performed on the model to reach an F1 score of 0.7850 on the training set and 0.7835 on the test set. The results were discussed and based on those, recommendations and improvements were also identified

Risk information seeking and processing of beef producers in the Southeast United States

Master of Science - Agricultural Education and CommunicationDepartment of Communications and Agricultural EducationJason D. EllisThe beef industry is ever evolving and plays a vital role in the United States economy. Many factors determine the impact of a beef operation and its contributions to the industry as a whole. Beef cow-calf operations in the Southeast United States are often criticized for being behind-the-times in management practices used and being slower to adopt new technologies. Is there a reason these producers manage differently than those in other regions? What impact, if any, do communication practices have on the management decisions for these operations? The purpose of this study was to better understand how Southeast beef cow-calf producers seek and process risk information about herd management and to determine communication preferences of these producers. The Risk Information Seeking and Processing (RISP) model was used to develop a survey, which was distributed through various beef producer organization channels to 11 Southeast states: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. The specific research objectives were to 1) define demographic and sociocultural characteristics of beef cow-calf producers in the Southeast United States, and 2) determine the perceived knowledge gap of beef cow-calf producers in the Southeast United States as it relates to risk management knowledge. The research question addressed by this study asked how beef cow-calf producers in the Southeast United States use different communication channels to influence their level of knowledge regarding risks facing their operations. Researchers proposed the following hypothesis, based on the RISP model: as the level of perceived risk increases, beef cow-calf producers in the Southeast United States will seek risk information through nonroutine channels. A majority of respondents identified their beef operations as having moderate risk in the areas of animal health, breeding management, calving management, animal growth, economic management, and marketing/selling calves. Perceived risk of weaning was categorized as moderately low. The preferred channel to receive beef-related information was through print magazines, and the preferred source of information was local extension. Additionally, respondents appeared to generally seek heuristic messages about beef risk management. In this study, no information was collected to assess the processing of these messages

A moral panic over cats

Some conservationists believe that free-ranging cats pose an enormous risk to biodiversity and public health and therefore should be eliminated from the landscape by any means necessary. They further claim that those who question the science or ethics behind their arguments are science deniers (merchants of doubt) seeking to mislead the public. As much as we share a commitment to conservation of biodiversity and wild nature, we believe these ideas are wrong and fuel an unwarranted moral panic over cats. Those who question the ecological or epidemiological status of cats are not science deniers, and it is a false analogy to compare them with corporate and right-wing special interests that perpetrate disinformation campaigns over issues, such as smoking and climate change. There are good conservation and public-health reasons and evidence to be skeptical that free-ranging cats constitute a disaster for biodiversity and human health in all circumstances. Further, there are significant and largely unaddressed ethical and policy issues (e.g., the ethics and efficacy of lethal management) relative to how people ought to value and coexist with cats and native wildlife. Society is better served by a collaborative approach to produce better scientific and ethical knowledge about free-ranging cats

Tsunami preparedness communication : understanding the business audience : a research report completed in partial fulfilment of the Master of Communication degree at Massey University, Wellington

Previous research conducted by GNS Science pre and post the 2016 Kaikōura Quake identified that the New Zealand public does not sufficiently understand the risks posed by tsunami hazards, and in particular there is limited awareness about the different responses required for local, regional, and distant-source tsunami events. This research was undertaken to delve deeper and generate new insights into the reasons behind that finding, specifically for one key audience: business leaders. This audience was primarily chosen because businesses play a key interdependent role in disaster response and community recovery. An audience-centred communication approach was chosen over the traditional mass communication approach most often applied in emergency management practice to date. A qualitative approach was selected because of its ability to provide complementary data to existing quantitative studies. Data were collected from twelve business-focussed community leaders, and business owners/senior managers in coastal Tauranga (Pāpāmoa) and Wellington (Rongotai), through a series of semi-structured interview conversations and email questionnaires. The data gathering instruments were designed to better understand the participants’: (1) tsunami knowledge and awareness; (2) tsunami risk perception; (3) existing tsunami preparedness; and (4) behavioural intent for future tsunami preparedness initiatives. Field observations and engagement with emergency management professionals provided greater depth of understanding and enhanced the contextual aspects of the research. The overall findings and themes emerging from this research suggest that: ● As indicated in the wider survey, there is a lack of tsunami awareness and preparedness among the business audience More specifically in the audience-centred context: ● There is confusion surrounding the roles and responsibilities of official emergency management organisations ● There is a need for improved organisational Health & Safety understanding and compliance concerning natural hazards in the business community ● Different stakeholders, even within the business audience, have different tsunami preparedness wants and needs The research also identified that: ● Some business leaders are willing to act as conduits for tsunami preparedness in their organisations and communities; viewing it as part of their identity and responsibility as a business leader. Specific suggestions for improved tsunami preparedness communication include: ● Ongoing stakeholder engagement and tsunami education with proactive ‘opinion leaders’ in the business community ● Adopting further targeted audience-centred approaches to improve the spread of preparedness messages through society ● A revision of existing official tsunami preparedness material and tsunami mapping to better meet the needs of end users, such as with customised co-developed material for business community needs in different regions ● Enhancing preparedness communication through the researcher’s ‘Five C’s Model

Establishment of an information technology risk management framework within food manufacturing enterprises in South Africa

Enterprises of all kinds, regardless of the sector, are directly or indirectly dependent on Information Technology (IT) to carry out their daily activities. With this in mind, and correlated with the problem statement that it is “the lack of IT governance principles that lead to exposing enterprises to IT-related threats, vulnerabilities, and risks”, the objective of this study was to establish an Information Technology Risk Management Framework for enterprises within the Food manufacturing industry in South Africa that will ensure that IT-related threats, vulnerabilities, and risks are properly managed. In order to accomplish this, the research followed a process called design science research. The design science research paradigm was used to create a design artificial artefact in the form of a framework. The Nelson Mandela University – Design Science Framework Methodology (NMU-DSFM) was adopted since the objective of the study was to develop a framework. The study has revealed that enterprises within the sector are indeed lagging behind in terms of IT governance principles, hence an artefact called the IT Risk Management Framework for Enterprises within Food Manufacturing Industries in South Africa was developed

Establishment of an information technology risk management framework within food manufacturing enterprises in South Africa

Enterprises of all kinds, regardless of the sector, are directly or indirectly dependent on Information Technology (IT) to carry out their daily activities. With this in mind, and correlated with the problem statement that it is “the lack of IT governance principles that lead to exposing enterprises to IT-related threats, vulnerabilities, and risks”, the objective of this study was to establish an Information Technology Risk Management Framework for enterprises within the Food manufacturing industry in South Africa that will ensure that IT-related threats, vulnerabilities, and risks are properly managed. In order to accomplish this, the research followed a process called design science research. The design science research paradigm was used to create a design artificial artefact in the form of a framework. The Nelson Mandela University – Design Science Framework Methodology (NMU-DSFM) was adopted since the objective of the study was to develop a framework. The study has revealed that enterprises within the sector are indeed lagging behind in terms of IT governance principles, hence an artefact called the IT Risk Management Framework for Enterprises within Food Manufacturing Industries in South Africa was developed