Impact Assessment of Hypothesized Cyberattacks on Interconnected Bulk Power Systems

The first-ever Ukraine cyberattack on power grid has proven its devastation by hacking into their critical cyber assets. With administrative privileges accessing substation networks/local control centers, one intelligent way of coordinated cyberattacks is to execute a series of disruptive switching executions on multiple substations using compromised supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. These actions can cause significant impacts to an interconnected power grid. Unlike the previous power blackouts, such high-impact initiating events can aggravate operating conditions, initiating instability that may lead to system-wide cascading failure. A systemic evaluation of "nightmare" scenarios is highly desirable for asset owners to manage and prioritize the maintenance and investment in protecting their cyberinfrastructure. This survey paper is a conceptual expansion of real-time monitoring, anomaly detection, impact analyses, and mitigation (RAIM) framework that emphasizes on the resulting impacts, both on steady-state and dynamic aspects of power system stability. Hypothetically, we associate the combinatorial analyses of steady state on substations/components outages and dynamics of the sequential switching orders as part of the permutation. The expanded framework includes (1) critical/noncritical combination verification, (2) cascade confirmation, and (3) combination re-evaluation. This paper ends with a discussion of the open issues for metrics and future design pertaining the impact quantification of cyber-related contingencies

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio

Moving from a "human-as-problem" to a "human-as-solution" cybersecurity mindset

Cybersecurity has gained prominence, with a number of widely publicised security incidents, hacking attacks and data breaches reaching the news over the last few years. The escalation in the numbers of cyber incidents shows no sign of abating, and it seems appropriate to take a look at the way cybersecurity is conceptualised and to consider whether there is a need for a mindset change.To consider this question, we applied a "problematization" approach to assess current conceptualisations of the cybersecurity problem by government, industry and hackers. Our analysis revealed that individual human actors, in a variety of roles, are generally considered to be "a problem". We also discovered that deployed solutions primarily focus on preventing adverse events by building resistance: i.e. implementing new security layers and policies that control humans and constrain their problematic behaviours. In essence, this treats all humans in the system as if they might well be malicious actors, and the solutions are designed to prevent their ill-advised behaviours. Given the continuing incidences of data breaches and successful hacks, it seems wise to rethink the status quo approach, which we refer to as "Cybersecurity, Currently". In particular, we suggest that there is a need to reconsider the core assumptions and characterisations of the well-intentioned human's role in the cybersecurity socio-technical system. Treating everyone as a problem does not seem to work, given the current cyber security landscape.Benefiting from research in other fields, we propose a new mindset i.e. "Cybersecurity, Differently". This approach rests on recognition of the fact that the problem is actually the high complexity, interconnectedness and emergent qualities of socio-technical systems. The "differently" mindset acknowledges the well-intentioned human's ability to be an important contributor to organisational cybersecurity, as well as their potential to be "part of the solution" rather than "the problem". In essence, this new approach initially treats all humans in the system as if they are well-intentioned. The focus is on enhancing factors that contribute to positive outcomes and resilience. We conclude by proposing a set of key principles and, with the help of a prototypical fictional organisation, consider how this mindset could enhance and improve cybersecurity across the socio-technical system

산사태, 홍수 및 관련 복합재해 피해 예방을 위한 통합적 리스크 관리 체계

학위논문(박사)--서울대학교 대학원 :환경대학원 협동과정 조경학,2019. 8. 이동근.In recent years, it has been reported that climate change is leading to increased damage and losses caused by natural hazards. Moreover, reports of compound disasters caused by multiple hazards in extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. Efforts have been made to improve risk management for natural hazards; however, there has been little discussion about providing an integrated framework supported by technical tools to establish an efficient and effective management plan based on quantitative analyses. Meanwhile, risk management tools and frameworks have been developed intensively in the industrial sector for decades. Applying risk management practices proven in the industrial sector can assist in systematic hazard identification and quantitative risk analysis for natural hazards, thereby potentially helping to reduce unwanted losses and to promote interactive risk communication. The objective of this study is to introduce methods of studying risk commonly used in the process industry, and to suggest how such methods can be applied to manage natural disasters, providing an integrated risk management framework. In particular, the hazard and operability (HAZOP), safety integrated level (SIL), and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods were investigated for the parts of the risk management process, which are risk identification, risk analysis, risk treatment, risk evaluation, and risk acceptance, as these methods are used to conduct key risk studies in industry. Herein, a literature review regarding those key risk studies and their application in various fields is briefly presented, together with an overview of risk management for natural hazards and multi-hazard risks. Next, common ways of implementing these risk studies for managing natural hazards are presented, with a focus on methodological considerations. First, a case study is presented in which HAZOP is applied to identify climate-related natural hazards in an organization using a worksheet that lists and evaluates natural hazards. Second, a study applying SIL is presented, in which the probability of landslide and rockfall occurrence is estimated based on the concept of reliability, indicating how probability values can be used for landslide risk management. In the third part, a simplified QRA for landslide hazard is exemplified through the case of site planning for a resort facility on a mountain hill, with the purpose of illustrating how stakeholders can make decisions on spatial planning regarding risk acceptance. In addition, this part presents the result of impact assessments conducted using physically-based models for cases involving multiple hazards, such as a post-wildfire landslide and complex flooding resulting from dam collapse. The technical approaches used in this study—systematic hazard identification, time-dependent reliability, and quantitative risk assessment for single or compound disasters using physically-based models—provide the methods to resolve the difficulty of establishing tools for managing the risk from natural hazards. The analysis presented in this study also provides a useful framework for improving the risk management of natural hazards through establishing a more systematic context and facilitating risk communication between decision-makers and the public.기후변화에 의한 자연재해는 최근 증가하는 추세이며, 폭우 등 극한 기상 현상에 의한 복합재해 피해 역시 증가하는 것으로 보고되고 있다. 그간 자연 위해 요소로부터 기인하는 리스크 관리를 개선하기 위한 노력은 있어왔으나, 통합체계 구축에 대한 논의는 부족한 편이였다. 또한 정량적 리스크 분석에 기반한 효율적 관리 체계 확립에 있어서도 리스크 평가를 위한 적정 기술 제공에 어려움이 있었다. 한편, 재해로 인한 손실 예방 및 저감을 위한 통합적 위험 관리 체계는 수십 년간 산업 부문에서 집중적으로 개발되었다. 자연재해 위험 관리를 위하여 이와 같은 체계적인 분석 방법과 검증된 운영 방식을 채택한다면, 이상 기후 노출로 인해 반복되는 인명 및 자산 손실을 줄일 수 있을 것이다. 이 연구의 목적은 석유화학 업종에서 사용되는 위험 관리 방법에 대하여 분석하고 자연재해 사례에 적용하여 통합적 위험 관리 체계를 수립하는데 있다. 특히, 리스크 관련 스터디 중 주요하게 실행되는 위험 및 작동성 평가 (The Hazard and Operability –HAZOP), 안전 통합 수준 분석 (Safety Integrated Level – SIL), 정량적 위험 평가 (Quantitative Risk Assessment – QRA) 에 대하여 자세히 알아보고, 이 방법들이 리스크의 확인, 분석, 저감, 평가, 수용으로 이어지는 자연재해 리스크 관리 전반에 어떻게 적용될 수 있는지에 대하여 분석하였다. 이 논문에서는 먼저 위에서 언급한 세가지 주요 리스크 스터디들에 대한 문헌 조사 내용을 소개하고, 다양한 분야에 적용되고 있는 현황에 대하여 알아보았다. 또한 기존의 자연재해 리스크 관리 방법들에 대하여 조사하고, 다중 위험 요소에 의한 복합재해 유형을 소개하였다. 다음으로, 이 리스크 스터디들이 실행되는 일반적 방법들에 대하여 알아보고, 자연재해 리스크 관리 분야에 적용되기 위한 방안들에 대하여 논의하였다. 첫번째 결과는 기후 관련 자연재해의 위험 요인을 식별하기 위한 HAZOP 스터디 사례이며, 워크시트 형태로 한 기관 내에 발생 할 수 있는 자연 위해 요소들을 분석하였다. 두번째 부분은 산사태와 낙석 발생의 확률을 추정하기 위하여 신뢰도 개념에 근거한 SIL 스터디를 적용한 사례 연구이며, 산정된 확률 지표를 사용하여 효율적으로 산사태 위험을 관리하기 위한 방안을 제시하였다. 셋째로, 산사태 위험을 정량적으로 분석하기위한 QRA 사례 연구를 진행하였으며, 산악 지역 펜션 리조트의 부지 선정 과정에서 노출될 수 있는 산사태 위험을 평가하고 수용하는 방법에 대하여 계획의 관점에서 알아보았다. 아울러, 이 결과 부분에서는 산불 후 산사태와 호우 시 댐 붕괴로 인한 홍수, 두가지 복합재해 사례에 대하여 알아보고 물리식 기반 모델을 사용한 영향 평가 방법에 대하여 논의 하였다. 이 논문에서 제시된 기술적 접근법인 체계적 위험성 식별, 시간에 따른 신뢰성 분석, 정량적 위험성 평가, 물리 모델에 기반한 복합재해 영향 평가는 자연재해 리스크 관리를 위한 방안들로 활용 될 수 있으며, 기술적 어려움을 해결하는데 도움이 될 수 있다. 이 논문의 연구 결과는 의사 결정자와 대중 간의 리스크 관련 의사 소통을 원활히 하고 체계적 관리 방안을 수립함으로써 자연재해 리스크 관리를 향상시키는데 유용한 통합 체계를 제공할 것이다.Table of Contents 1. Introduction １ 1.1 Study background and objective １ 1.2 Study scope ８ 2. Theoretical paradigm and literature review １２ 2.1 Natural hazard management and communication １２ 2.1.1 The status of natural disaster occurrence １２ 2.1.2 Risk management for natural hazard １５ 2.1.3 Communication on risk information １８ 2.2 Industrial risk management practices ２０ 2.2.1 Risk identification ２０ 2.2.2 Risk analysis and treatment ２３ 2.2.3 Risk evaluation and acceptance ２５ 2.3 Type and impact of multi-hazard risk ２７ 2.4 Comparison of risk assessment methodologies ３２ 3. Risk identification for climate change issues ３５ 3.1 Method for risk identification ３５ 3.2 Result of risk identification ４０ 3.2.1 Climate change risk identification ４０ 3.3 Discussion on risk identification ４２ 4. Risk analysis and treatment for natural hazards ４５ 4.1 Method for risk analysis and treatment ４５ 4.2 Results of risk analysis and treatment ６１ 4.2.1 Risk analysis and treatment for landslide hazard ６１ 4.2.2 Risk analysis and treatment for rockfall hazard ６９ 4.3 Discussion on risk analysis and treatment ８１ 5. Risk evaluation and acceptance for compound disasters ８７ 5.1 Method for risk evaluation and acceptance ８７ 5.2 Result of risk evaluation and acceptance １００ 5.2.1 QRA with physically-based landslide model １００ 5.2.2 Impact assessment of post-wildfire landslides １０５ 5.2.3 Impact assessment of complex flooding １０９ 5.3 Discussion on risk evaluation and acceptance １１４ 6. Discussion １２２ 7. Conclusion １２５Docto

Graph Theoretical Analysis of the Dynamic Lines of Collaboration Model for Disruption Response

The Dynamic Lines of Collaboration (DLOC) model was developed to address the Network-to-Network (N2N) service challenge found in e-Work networks with pervasive connectivity. A variant of the N2N service challenge found in emerging Cyber-Physical Infrastructures (CPI) networks is the collaborative disruption response (CDR) operation under cascading failures. The DLOC model has been validated as an appropriate modelling tool to aid the design of disruption responders in CPIs by eliciting the dynamic relation among the service team when handling service requests from clients in the CPI network

Security of electric power systems : cascading outage analysis, interdiction model and resilience to natural disasters

textSecure electric power system operation is key to social warfare. However, recent years have seen numerous natural disasters and terrorist attacks that threat the grid security. This dissertation summarizes the efforts to develop a model to analyze cascading outages, an interdiction model to analyze worst-case attacks on power grids, and research on grid resilience to natural disasters. The developed cascading outage analysis model uses outage checkers to systematically simulate the system behavior after an initial disturbance, and calculate the potential cascading outage path and electric load shedding. The new interdiction model combines the previously developed medium-term attack-defense model with the short-term cascading outage analysis model to find worst-case terrorist attack. The dissertation also reviews the research on power grid resilience to natural disaster, and develops a framework to simulate the impacts of hurricanes.Electrical and Computer Engineerin

Advancements in Enhancing Resilience of Electrical Distribution Systems: A Review on Frameworks, Metrics, and Technological Innovations

This comprehensive review paper explores power system resilience, emphasizing its evolution, comparison with reliability, and conducting a thorough analysis of the definition and characteristics of resilience. The paper presents the resilience frameworks and the application of quantitative power system resilience metrics to assess and quantify resilience. Additionally, it investigates the relevance of complex network theory in the context of power system resilience. An integral part of this review involves examining the incorporation of data-driven techniques in enhancing power system resilience. This includes the role of data-driven methods in enhancing power system resilience and predictive analytics. Further, the paper explores the recent techniques employed for resilience enhancement, which includes planning and operational techniques. Also, a detailed explanation of microgrid (MG) deployment, renewable energy integration, and peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading in fortifying power systems against disruptions is provided. An analysis of existing research gaps and challenges is discussed for future directions toward improvements in power system resilience. Thus, a comprehensive understanding of power system resilience is provided, which helps in improving the ability of distribution systems to withstand and recover from extreme events and disruptions

Establishing cost-effective safety management for major oil and gas exploitation projects in the design phase

Disasters such as Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico, in April 2010, continue to blight the oil and gas industry despite a significant amount of research effort carried out by academia, regulatory bodies, and oil and gas companies to understand how safety-related incidents, especially disasters, can be prevented. While these have contributed to the discussion around reducing risk, they often lack the systemic influences that determine the value drivers affecting decision-making, and the ability to achieve continuous and sustainable improvements in safety performance. Consequently, this research aims to provide a more holistic approach to understanding the nature of disasters in the oil and gas industry, and identifying how future disasters can be prevented by establishing "more cost-effective strategies. Quantitative research was carried out to determine the type and validity of the data used to construct trends in major accident safety performance, and qualitative research was carried out to assess the key factors that influence safety performance, and whether these are effectively applied. The conclusions of this research are that the industry has not demonstrated effective implementation of an Occupational Health and Safety Management System (OH&S-MSj. Historically safety performance shows wide annual variations where trends are difficult to define and extrapolate, making it difficult to provide any significant benefit for major accident prevention. There is no evidence to indicate that moving from a prescriptive, to a goal-setting regime, has improved safety performance, and reduced the prospect of future major accidents. Disaster investigation reports have shown that the role of the regulator has been ineffective. However, the adoption of a more comprehensive, and effective approach to inherently safer designs, and the way projects are managed, have the potential to make safety management more cost-effective and reduce the prospect of future disasters

Resilience of the Critical Communication Networks Against Spreading Failures: Case of the European National and Research Networks

A backbone network is the central part of the communication network, which provides connectivity within the various systems across large distances. Disruptions in a backbone network would cause severe consequences which could manifest in the service outage on a large scale. Depending on the size and the importance of the network, its failure could leave a substantial impact on the area it is associated with. The failures of the network services could lead to a significant disturbance of human activities. Therefore, making backbone communication networks more resilient directly affects the resilience of the area. Contemporary urban and regional development overwhelmingly converges with the communication infrastructure expansion and their obvious mutual interconnections become more reciprocal. Spreading failures are of particular interest. They usually originate in a single network segment and then spread to the rest of network often causing a global collapse. Two types of spreading failures are given focus, namely: epidemics and cascading failures. How to make backbone networks more resilient against spreading failures? How to tune the topology or additionally protect nodes or links in order to mitigate an effect of the potential failure? Those are the main questions addressed in this thesis. First, the epidemic phenomena are discussed. The subjects of epidemic modeling and identification of the most influential spreaders are addressed using a proposed Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) system approach. Throughout the years, LTI system theory has been used mostly to describe electrical circuits and networks. LTI is suitable to characterize the behavior of the system consisting of numerous interconnected components. The results presented in this thesis show that the same mathematical toolbox could be used for the complex network analysis. Then, cascading failures are discussed. Like any system which can be modeled using an interdependence graph with limited capacity of either nodes or edges, backbone networks are prone to cascades. Numerical simulations are used to model such failures. The resilience of European National Research and Education Networks (NREN) is assessed, weak points and critical areas of the network are identified and the suggestions for its modification are proposed