Modeling Paying Behavior in Game Social Networks

Online gaming is one of the largest industries on the Internet, generating tens of billions of dollars in revenues annually. One core problem in online game is to find and convert free users into paying customers, which is of great importance for the sustainable development of almost all online games. Although much research has been conducted, there are still several challenges that remain largely unsolved: What are the fundamental factors that trigger the users to pay? How does users? paying behavior influence each other in the game social network? How to design a prediction model to recognize those potential users who are likely to pay? In this paper, employing two large online games as the basis, we study how a user becomes a new paying user in the games. In particular, we examine how users' paying behavior influences each other in the game social network. We study this problem from various sociological perspectives including strong/weak ties, social structural diversity and social influence. Based on the discovered patterns, we propose a learning framework to predict potential new payers. The framework can learn a model using features associated with users and then use the social relationships between users to refine the learned model. We test the proposed framework using nearly 50 billion user activities from two real games. Our experiments show that the proposed framework significantly improves the prediction accuracy by up to 3-11% compared to several alternative methods. The study also unveils several intriguing social phenomena from the data. For example, influence indeed exists among users for the paying behavior. The likelihood of a user becoming a new paying user is 5 times higher than chance when he has 5 paying neighbors of strong tie. We have deployed the proposed algorithm into the game, and the Lift_Ratio has been improved up to 196% compared to the prior strategy

Cultural Diffusion and Trends in Facebook Photographs

Online social media is a social vehicle in which people share various moments of their lives with their friends, such as playing sports, cooking dinner or just taking a selfie for fun, via visual means, that is, photographs. Our study takes a closer look at the popular visual concepts illustrating various cultural lifestyles from aggregated, de-identified photographs. We perform analysis both at macroscopic and microscopic levels, to gain novel insights about global and local visual trends as well as the dynamics of interpersonal cultural exchange and diffusion among Facebook friends. We processed images by automatically classifying the visual content by a convolutional neural network (CNN). Through various statistical tests, we find that socially tied individuals more likely post images showing similar cultural lifestyles. To further identify the main cause of the observed social correlation, we use the Shuffle test and the Preference-based Matched Estimation (PME) test to distinguish the effects of influence and homophily. The results indicate that the visual content of each user's photographs are temporally, although not necessarily causally, correlated with the photographs of their friends, which may suggest the effect of influence. Our paper demonstrates that Facebook photographs exhibit diverse cultural lifestyles and preferences and that the social interaction mediated through the visual channel in social media can be an effective mechanism for cultural diffusion.Comment: 10 pages, To appear in ICWSM 2017 (Full Paper