185 research outputs found
On the age dynamics of learned societies - taking the example of the Austrian Academy Sciences
In a hierarchical organisation of stable size the annual intake is strictly determined by the number of deaths and a statutory retirement age (if there is one). In this paper we reconstruct the population of the Austrian Academy of Sciences from 1847 to 2005. For the Austrian Academy of Sciences we observe a shift of its age distribution towards older ages, which on the one hand is due to rising life expectancy, i.e., a rising age at death, as well as to an increased age at entry on the other hand. Therefore the number of new entrants has been fluctuating considerably - especially reflecting several statutory changes - and the length of tenure before reaching the age limit has declined during the second half of the last century. Based on alternative scenarios of the age distribution of incoming members - including a young, an old, the 'current' and a mixed-age model - we then project the population of the Austrian Academy and its ageing forward in time. Our results indicate that the 'optimum policy' would be to elect either young or old aged new members.
On the age dynamics of learned societiesâ taking the example of the Austrian Academy of Sciences
In a hierarchical organisation of stable size the annual intake is strictly determined by the number of deaths and a statutory retirement age (if there is one). In this paper we reconstruct the population of the Austrian Academy of Sciences from 1847 to 2005. For the Austrian Academy of Sciences we observe a shift of its age distribution towards older ages, which on the one hand is due to rising life expectancy, i.e., a rising age at death, as well as to an increased age at entry on the other hand. Therefore the number of new entrants has been fluctuating considerablyâespecially reflecting several statutory changesâand the length of tenure before reaching the age limit has declined during the second half of the last century. Based on alternative scenarios of the age distribution of incoming membersâ including a young, an old, the âcurrentâ and a mixed-age modelâwe then project the population of the Austrian Academy and its ageing forward in time. Our results indicate that the âoptimum policyâ would be to elect either young or old aged new members
The Entropy Theoretic Measure for Manpower Systems in Perspective
This study provides a realistic appraisal of the use of entropy measures in manpower systems. The appraisal shows that the existing entropy measures for manpower systems give a partial picture of the behavioural mechanism of the system. Consequent upon this, we propose the use of transition probabilities of the imbedded Markov chain for manpower systems as inputs in the entropy statistic. The proposal is illustrated by refining the basic Shannon entropy rate and implemented in Matlab computing environment.Keywords: entropy, manpower system, Markov chain, Matlab package
Markov and Semi-markov Chains, Processes, Systems and Emerging Related Fields
This book covers a broad range of research results in the field of Markov and Semi-Markov chains, processes, systems and related emerging fields. The authors of the included research papers are well-known researchers in their field. The book presents the state-of-the-art and ideas for further research for theorists in the fields. Nonetheless, it also provides straightforwardly applicable results for diverse areas of practitioners
A behavioral ecology of shermen: hidden stories from trajectory data in the Northern Humboldt Current System
This work proposes an original contribution to the understanding of shermen spatial behavior, based on the behavioral ecology and movement ecology paradigms. Through the analysis of Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) data, we characterized the spatial behavior of Peruvian anchovy shermen at di erent scales: (1) the behavioral modes within shing trips (i.e., searching, shing and cruising); (2) the behavioral patterns among shing
trips; (3) the behavioral patterns by shing season conditioned by ecosystem scenarios;
and (4) the computation of maps of anchovy presence proxy from the spatial patterns of
behavioral mode positions. At the rst scale considered, we compared several Markovian
(hidden Markov and semi-Markov models) and discriminative models (random forests,
support vector machines and arti cial neural networks) for inferring the behavioral modes
associated with VMS tracks. The models were trained under a supervised setting and
validated using tracks for which behavioral modes were known (from on-board observers
records). Hidden semi-Markov models performed better, and were retained for inferring
the behavioral modes on the entire VMS dataset. At the second scale considered, each
shing trip was characterized by several features, including the time spent within each
behavioral mode. Using a clustering analysis, shing trip patterns were classi ed into
groups associated to management zones,
eet segments and skippers' personalities. At the third scale considered, we analyzed how ecological conditions shaped shermen behavior.
By means of co-inertia analyses, we found signi cant associations between shermen,
anchovy and environmental spatial dynamics, and shermen behavioral responses were
characterized according to contrasted environmental scenarios. At the fourth scale considered, we investigated whether the spatial behavior of shermen re ected to some extent the spatial distribution of anchovy. Finally, this work provides a wider view of shermen behavior: shermen are not only economic agents, but they are also foragers, constrained by ecosystem variability. To conclude, we discuss how these ndings may be of importance for sheries management, collective behavior analyses and end-to-end models.Tesis (Doctorat). -- Universite de Montpellier IIIRD / IMARP
Simulating and Optimizing: Military Manpower Modeling and Mountain Range Options
In this dissertation we employ two different optimization methodologies, dynamic
programming and linear programming, and stochastic simulation. The first
two essays are drawn from military manpower modeling and the last is an application
in finance.
First, we investigate two different models to explore the military manpower
system. The first model describes the optimal retirement behavior for an Army
officer from any point in their career. We address the optimal retirement policies for
Army officers, incorporating the current retirement system, pay tables, and Army
promotion opportunities. We find that the optimal policy for taste-neutral Lieutenant
Colonels is to retire at 20 years. We demonstrate the value and importance
of promotion signals regarding the promotion distribution to Colonel. Signaling an
increased promotion opportunity from 50% to 75% for the most competitive officers
switches their optimal policy at twenty years to continuing to serve and competing
for promotion to Colonel.
The second essay explores the attainability and sustainability of Army force profiles. We propose a new network structure that incorporates both rank and
years in grade to combine cohort, rank, and specialty modeling without falling into
the common pitfalls of small cell size and uncontrollable end effects. This is the
first implementation of specialty modeling in a manpower model for U.S. Army
officers. Previous specialty models of the U.S. Army manpower system have isolated
accession planning for Second Lieutenants and the Career Field Designation
process for Majors, but this is the first integration of rank and specialty modeling
over the entire officer's career and development of an optimal force profile.
The last application is drawn from financial engineering and explores several
exotic derivatives that are collectively known Mountain Range options, employing
Monte Carlo simulation to price these options and developing gradient estimates
to study the sensitivities to underlying parameters, known as "the Greeks". We
find that IPA and LR/SF methods are efficient methods of gradient estimation for
Mountain Range products at a considerably reduced computation cost compared
with the commonly used finite difference methods
Advances in Robot Navigation
Robot navigation includes different interrelated activities such as perception - obtaining and interpreting sensory information; exploration - the strategy that guides the robot to select the next direction to go; mapping - the construction of a spatial representation by using the sensory information perceived; localization - the strategy to estimate the robot position within the spatial map; path planning - the strategy to find a path towards a goal location being optimal or not; and path execution, where motor actions are determined and adapted to environmental changes. This book integrates results from the research work of authors all over the world, addressing the abovementioned activities and analyzing the critical implications of dealing with dynamic environments. Different solutions providing adaptive navigation are taken from nature inspiration, and diverse applications are described in the context of an important field of study: social robotics
Markovian-based clustering of internet addiction trajectories
A hidden Markov clustering procedure is applied to a sample of n=185 longitudinal Internet Addiction Test trajectories collected in Switzerland. The best solution has 4 groups. This solution is related to the level of emotional wellbeing of the subjects, but no relation is observed with age, gender and BMI
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