3,342 research outputs found

    Demand for World Bank lending

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    Bridging the external financing gap has been an important factor in borrowing cgovernment's demand for World Bank loans. The demand for IBRD and IDA lending is positively related to an increase in debt service payments and inversely related to a borrowing country's level of reserves. These two variables explain a large part of the variation in IBRD and IDA lending commitments, not only since the Asian crisis but also during tranquil times over the past two decades. Borrowing to service debt during a crisis is consistent with the Bank's role as a lender of last resort as well as with its core development objectives, but such borrowing during tranquil times may conflict with the Bank's long-term objective ofreducing poverty. That investment lending commitments are related to debt service payments implies that aid may be more fungible than previously believed. If Bank lending is fungible and there is no guarantee that a particular Bank loan is financing an identified investment project or program, a case could be made for greater use of programmatic lending (with well-defined conditionality) As developing countries become larger and more integrated with volatile international capaital markets, there is also likely to be a greater need for fast-disbursing, contingent program lending facilities from the Bank.Economic Adjustment and Lending,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Banks&Banking Reform,Strategic Debt Management,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Adjustment and Lending

    Non Linear Modelling of Financial Data Using Topologically Evolved Neural Network Committees

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    Most of artificial neural network modelling methods are difficult to use as maximising or minimising an objective function in a non-linear context involves complex optimisation algorithms. Problems related to the efficiency of these algorithms are often mixed with the difficulty of the a priori estimation of a network's fixed topology for a specific problem making it even harder to appreciate the real power of neural networks. In this thesis, we propose a method that overcomes these issues by using genetic algorithms to optimise a network's weights and topology, simultaneously. The proposed method searches for virtually any kind of network whether it is a simple feed forward, recurrent, or even an adaptive network. When the data is high dimensional, modelling its often sophisticated behaviour is a very complex task that requires the optimisation of thousands of parameters. To enable optimisation techniques to overpass their limitations or failure, practitioners use methods to reduce the dimensionality of the data space. However, some of these methods are forced to make unrealistic assumptions when applied to non-linear data while others are very complex and require a priori knowledge of the intrinsic dimension of the system which is usually unknown and very difficult to estimate. The proposed method is non-linear and reduces the dimensionality of the input space without any information on the system's intrinsic dimension. This is achieved by first searching in a low dimensional space of simple networks, and gradually making them more complex as the search progresses by elaborating on existing solutions. The high dimensional space of the final solution is only encountered at the very end of the search. This increases the system's efficiency by guaranteeing that the network becomes no more complex than necessary. The modelling performance of the system is further improved by searching not only for one network as the ideal solution to a specific problem, but a combination of networks. These committces of networks are formed by combining a diverse selection of network species from a population of networks derived by the proposed method. This approach automatically exploits the strengths and weaknesses of each member of the committee while avoiding having all members giving the same bad judgements at the same time. In this thesis, the proposed method is used in the context of non-linear modelling of high-dimensional financial data. Experimental results are'encouraging as both robustness and complexity are concerned.Imperial Users onl

    Characterization and interpretation of cardiovascular and cardiorespiratory dynamics in cardiomyopathy patients

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    Aplicat embargament des de la data de defensa fins el dia 20/5/2022The main objective of this thesis was to study the variability of the cardiac, respiratory and vascular systems through electrocardiographic (ECG), respiratory flow (FLW) and blood pressure (BP) signals, in patients with idiopathic (IDC), dilated (DCM), or ischemic (ICM) disease. The aim of this work was to introduce new indices that could contribute to characterizing these diseases. With these new indices, we propose methods to classify cardiomyopathy patients (CMP) according to their cardiovascular risk or etiology. In addition, a new tool was proposed to reconstruct artifacts in biomedical signals. From the ECG, BP and FLW signals, different data series were extracted: beat to beat intervals (BBI - ECG), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP - BP), and breathing duration (TT - FLW). -Firstly, we propose a novel artifact reconstruction method applied to biomedical signals. The reconstruction process makes use of information from neighboring events while maintaining the dynamics of the original signal. The method is based on detecting the cycles and artifacts, identifying the number of cycles to reconstruct, and predicting the cycles used to replace the artifact segments. The reconstruction results showed that most of the artifacts were correctly detected, and physiological cycles were incorrectly detected as artifacts in fewer than 1% of the cases. The second part is related to the cardiac death risk stratification of patients based on their left ventricular ejection (LVEF), using the Poincaré plot analysis, and classified as low (LVEF > 35%) or high (LVEF = 35%) risk. The BBI, SBP, and IT series of 46 CMP patients were applied. The linear discriminant analysis and support vector machines (SVM) classification methods were used. When comparing low risk vs high risk, an accuracy of 98 12% was obtained. Our results suggest that a dysfunction in the vagal activity could prevent the body from correctly maintaining circulatory homeostasis Next, we studied cardio-vascular couplings based on heart rate (HRV) and blood pressure (BPV) variability analyses in order to introduce new indices for noninvasive risk stratification in IDC patients. The ECG and BP signals of 91 IDC patients, and 49 healthy subjects were used. The patients were stratified by their sudden cardiac death risk as: high risk (IDCHR), when after two years the subject either died or suffered complications, or low risk (IDCLR) otherwise. Several indices were extracted from the BBI and SBP, and analyzed using the segmented Poincaré plot analysis, the high-resolution joint symbolic dynamics, and the normalized short time partial directed coherence methods. SVM models were built to classify these patients based on their sudden cardiac death risk. The SVM IDCLR vs IDCHR model achieved 98 9% accuracy with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.96. Our results suggest that IDCHR patients have decreased HRV and increased BPV compared to both the IDCLR patients and the control subjects, suggesting a decrease in their vagal activity and the compensation of sympathetic activity. Lastly, we analyzed the cardiorespiratory interaction associated with the systems related to ICM and DCM disease. We propose an analysis based on vascular activity as the input and output of the baroreflex response. The aim was to analyze the suitability of cardiorespiratory and vascular interactions for the classification of ICM and DCM patients. We studied 41 CMP patients and 39 healthy subjects. Three new sub-spaces were defined: 'up' for increasing values, 'down' for decreasing values, and 'no change' otherwise, and a three-dimensional representation was created for each sub-space that was characterized statistically and morphologically. The resulting indices were used to classify the patients by their etiology through SVM models achieving 92.7% accuracy for ICM vs DCM patients comparison. The results reflected a more pronounced deterioration of the autonomous regulation in DCM patients.El objetivo de esta tesis fue estudiar la variabilidad de los sistemas cardíaco, respiratorio y vascular a través de señales electrocardiográficas (ECG), de flujo respiratorio (FLW) y de presión arterial (BP), en pacientes con cardiopatía idiopática (IDC). dilatada (DCM) o isquémica (ICM). El objetivo de este trabajo fue introducir nuevos indices que contribuyan a caracterizar estas enfermedades. Proponemos métodos para clasificar pacientes con cardiomiopatía (CMP) de acuerdo con su riesgo cardiovascular o etiología. Además, se propuso una nueva herramienta para reconstruir artefactos en señales biomédicas. De las señales de ECG, BP y FLW, se extrajeron diferentes series temporales: intervalos latido-a-latido (BBI - ECG), presión arterial sistólica y diastólica (SBP y DBP - BP) y la duración de la respiración (TT - FLW). En primer lugar, proponemos un método de reconstrucción de artefactos aplicado a señales biomédicas. El proceso de reconstrucción usa la información de eventos vecinos manteniendo la dinámica de la señal. El método se basa en detectar ciclos y artefactos, en identificar el número de ciclos a reconstruir y en predecir los ciclos utilizados para reemplazar los artefactos. La mayoría de los artefactos probados fueron detectados y reconstruidos correctamente y los ciclos fisiológicos fueron detectados incorrectamente como artefactos en menos del 1% de los casos, La segunda parte está relacionada con la estratificación de riesgo de muerte cardiovascular en función de la fracción de eyección ventricular izquierda (FEVI), mediante el análisis de Poincaré, en bajo (FEVI > 35%) y alto riesgo (FEVI 5 35%). Se utilizaron las series BBI, SBP y TT de 46 pacientes con CMP. Se utilizaron para la clasificación el análisis discriminante lineal y las máquinas de soporte vectorial (SVM). Al comparar los pacientes de bajo y alto riesgo, se obtuvo una exactitud del 98%. Los resultados sugieren la disfunción de la actividad vagal en pacientes de alto riesgo. A continuación, estudiamos los acoplamientos cardiovasculares basados en el análisis de la variabilidad de la frecuencia cardiaca (HRV) y la presión arterial (BPV) para introducir nuevos índices de estratificación de riesgo en pacientes con IDC. Se utilizaron las señales de ECG y BP de 91 pacientes con IDC y 49 sujetos sanos. Los pacientes fueron estratificados por su riesgo cardíaco como: alto riesgo (IDCHR), cuando después de dos años el sujeto murió, o bajo riesgo (IDCLR) en otro caso. Se extrajeron indices utilizando el análisis de Poincaré segmentado, la dinámica simbólica articulada de alta resolución y la coherencia parcial dirigida a corto plazo normalizada. Se construyeron modelos SVM para clasificar a estos pacientes en función de su riesgo cardiovascular. El modelo IDCLR vs IDCHR logró una exactitud del 98% con un área bajo la curva de 0.96. Los resultados sugieren que los pacientes IDCHR tienen sus HRV y BPV disminuidos en comparación con los pacientes IDCLR, lo que sugiere una disminución en su actividad vagal y la compensación de la actividad simpática. Finalmente, analizamos la interacción cardiorrespiratoria asociada con los sistemas relacionados con ICM y DCM. Proponemos un análisis basado en la actividad vascular como entrada y salida de la respuesta baroreflectora. El objetivo fue analizar la capacidad de las interacciones cardiorrespiratorias y vasculares para la clasificación de pacientes con ICM y DCM. Estudiamos 41 pacientes con CMP y 39 sujetos sanos. Se definieron tres sub-espacios: 'up' para valores crecientes, 'down' para los decrecientes, y 'no-change' en otro caso, y se creó una representación tridimensional que se caracterizó estadística y morfológicamente. Los indices resultantes se usaron para clasificar a los pacientes por su etiología con modelos SVM que lograron una exactitud de 92% cuando los pacientes ICM y DCM fueron comparados. Los resultados reflejaron un deterioro más pronunciado de la regulación autónoma en pacientes con DCM.Postprint (published version

    International Union of Angiology (IUA) consensus paper on imaging strategies in atherosclerotic carotid artery imaging: From basic strategies to advanced approaches

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    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality and disability in developed countries. According to WHO, an estimated 17.9 million people died from CVDs in 2019, representing 32% of all global deaths. Of these deaths, 85% were due to major adverse cardiac and cerebral events. Early detection and care for individuals at high risk could save lives, alleviate suffering, and diminish economic burden associated with these diseases. Carotid artery disease is not only a well-established risk factor for ischemic stroke, contributing to 10%–20% of strokes or transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), but it is also a surrogate marker of generalized atherosclerosis and a predictor of cardiovascular events. In addition to diligent history, physical examination, and laboratory detection of metabolic abnormalities leading to vascular changes, imaging of carotid arteries adds very important information in assessing stroke and overall cardiovascular risk. Spanning from carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) measurements in arteriopathy to plaque burden, morphology and biology in more advanced disease, imaging of carotid arteries could help not only in stroke prevention but also in ameliorating cardiovascular events in other territories (e.g. in the coronary arteries). While ultrasound is the most widely available and affordable imaging methods, computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), positron emission tomography (PET), their combination and other more sophisticated methods have introduced novel concepts in detection of carotid plaque characteristics and risk assessment of stroke and other cardiovascular events. However, in addition to robust progress in usage of these methods, all of them have limitations which should be taken into account. The main purpose of this consensus document is to discuss pros but also cons in clinical, epidemiological and research use of all these techniques

    EXPLAINABLE MODELS FOR MULTIVARIATE TIME-SERIES DEFECT CLASSIFICATION OF ARC STUD WELDING

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    Arc Stud Welding (ASW) is widely used in many industries such as automotive and shipbuilding and is employed in building and jointing large-scale structures. While defective or imperfect welds rarely occur in production, even a single low-quality stud weld is the reason for scrapping the entire structure, financial loss and wasting time. Preventive machine learning-based solutions can be leveraged to minimize the loss. However, these approaches only provide predictions rather than demonstrating insights for characterizing defects and root cause analysis. In this work, an investigation on defect detection and classification to diagnose the possible leading causes of low-quality defects is proposed. Moreover, an explainable model to describe network predictions is explored. Initially, a dataset of multi-variate time-series of ASW utilizing measurement sensors in an experimental environment is generated. Next, a set of pre-possessing techniques are assessed. Finally, classification models are optimized by Bayesian black-box optimization methods to maximize their performance. Our best approach reaches an F1-score of 0.84 on the test set. Furthermore, an explainable model is employed to provide interpretations on per class feature attention of the model to extract sensor measurement contribution in detecting defects as well as its time attention

    Optical imaging and spectroscopy for the study of the human brain: status report.

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    This report is the second part of a comprehensive two-part series aimed at reviewing an extensive and diverse toolkit of novel methods to explore brain health and function. While the first report focused on neurophotonic tools mostly applicable to animal studies, here, we highlight optical spectroscopy and imaging methods relevant to noninvasive human brain studies. We outline current state-of-the-art technologies and software advances, explore the most recent impact of these technologies on neuroscience and clinical applications, identify the areas where innovation is needed, and provide an outlook for the future directions

    Optical imaging and spectroscopy for the study of the human brain: status report

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    This report is the second part of a comprehensive two-part series aimed at reviewing an extensive and diverse toolkit of novel methods to explore brain health and function. While the first report focused on neurophotonic tools mostly applicable to animal studies, here, we highlight optical spectroscopy and imaging methods relevant to noninvasive human brain studies. We outline current state-of-the-art technologies and software advances, explore the most recent impact of these technologies on neuroscience and clinical applications, identify the areas where innovation is needed, and provide an outlook for the future directions

    Optical imaging and spectroscopy for the study of the human brain: status report

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    This report is the second part of a comprehensive two-part series aimed at reviewing an extensive and diverse toolkit of novel methods to explore brain health and function. While the first report focused on neurophotonic tools mostly applicable to animal studies, here, we highlight optical spectroscopy and imaging methods relevant to noninvasive human brain studies. We outline current state-of-the-art technologies and software advances, explore the most recent impact of these technologies on neuroscience and clinical applications, identify the areas where innovation is needed, and provide an outlook for the future directions. Keywords: DCS; NIRS; diffuse optics; functional neuroscience; optical imaging; optical spectroscop

    Developing High-Density Diffuse Optical Tomography for Neuroimaging

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    Clinicians who care for brain-injured patients and premature infants desire a bedside monitor of brain function. A decade ago, there was hope that optical imaging would be able to fill this role, as it combined fMRI\u27s ability to construct cortical maps with EEG\u27s portable, cap-based systems. However, early optical systems had poor imaging performance, and the momentum for the technique slowed. In our lab, we develop diffuse optical tomography: DOT), which is a more advanced method of performing optical imaging. My research has been to pioneer the in vivo use of DOT for advanced neuroimaging by: 1) quantifying the advantages of DOT through both in silico simulation and in vivo performance metrics,: 2) restoring confidence in the technique with the first retinotopic mapping of the visual cortex: a benchmark for fMRI and PET), and: 3) creating concepts and methods for the clinical translation of DOT. Hospitalized patients are unable to perform complicated neurological tasks, which has motivated us to develop the first DOT methods for resting-state brain mapping with functional connectivity. Finally, in collaboration with neonatologists, I have extended these methods with proof-of-principle imaging of brain-injured premature infants. This work establishes DOT\u27s improvements in imaging performance and readies it for multiple clinical and research roles

    Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time- and state-dependent noise

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    The anticipation of bifurcation-induced transitions in dynamical systems has gained relevance in various fields of the natural, social, and economic sciences. When approaching a co-dimension 1 bifurcation, the feedbacks that stabilise the initial state weaken and eventually vanish; a process referred to as critical slowing down (CSD). This motivates the use of variance and lag-1 autocorrelation as indicators of CSD. Both indicators rely on linearising the system's restoring rate. Additionally, the use of variance is limited to time- and state-independent driving noise, strongly constraining the generality of CSD. Here, we propose a data-driven approach based on deriving a Langevin equation to detect local stability changes and anticipate bifurcation-induced transitions in systems with generally time- and state-dependent noise. Our approach substantially generalizes the conditions underlying existing early warning indicators, which we showcase in different examples. Changes in deterministic dynamics can be clearly discriminated from changes in the driving noise. This reduces the risk of false and missed alarms of conventional CSD indicators significantly in settings with time-dependent or multiplicative noise. In multi-dimensional systems, our method can greatly advance the understanding of the coupling between system components and can avoid risks of missing CSD due to dimension reduction, which existing approaches suffer from
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