Deciphering Okmok Volcano's restless years (2002-2005)

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2015Okmok Volcano is an active island-arc shield volcano located in the central Aleutian islands of Alaska. It is defined by a 10-km-diameter caldera that formed in two cataclysmic eruptions, the most recent being ~2050 years ago. Subsequent eruptions created several cinder cones within the caldera. The youngest of these, Cone A, was the active vent from 1815 through its 1997 eruption. On July 12 2008 Okmok erupted from new vents located northwest of Cone D. Between 2001 and 2004, geodetic measurements showed caldera inflation. These studies suggested that new magma might be entering the system. In 2002, a newly installed seismic network recorded quasi-periodic ("banded") seismic tremor signals occurring at the rate of two or more episodes per hour. This tremor was a near-continuous signal from the day the seismic network was installed. Although the volcano was not erupting, it was clearly in a state of unrest. This unrest garnered considerable attention because the volcano had erupted just six years prior. The seismic tremor potentially held insight as to whether the unrest was a remnant of the 1997 eruption, or whether it signaled a possible rejuvenation of activity and the potential for eruption. To determine the root cause and implications of this remarkable seismic tremor sequence, I created a catalog of over ~17,000 tremor events recorded between 2003 and mid-2005. Tremor patterns evolved on the scale of days, but remained the dominant seismic signal. In order to facilitate the analysis of several years of data I created a MATLAB toolbox, known as "The Waveform Suite". This toolbox made it feasible for me to work with several years of digital data and forego my introductory analyses that were based on paper "helicorder" records. I first attempted to locate the tremor using the relative amplitudes of the seismograms to determine where the tremor was being created. Candidate tremor locations were constrained to a few locations along a corridor between Cone A and the caldera center. I then determined theoretical ratios between a reference station and stations nearby the candidate sources. Results suggested that the signal originated in the shallow portion of the corridor connecting the surface of Cone A to the top of the central magma chamber. This study also suggested that the source migrated along this corridor. I integrated the tremor patterns with other studies and proposed that heat and pressure from continued injections of magma were responsible for maintaining an open venting system at Cone A. The tremor resulted from the boiling of a shallow hydrothermal system in the vicinity of Cone A and volatiles potentially coming from the magma itself. The tremor catalog demonstrates that the seismic signal waned during the study period suggesting that fewer fresh volatiles entered the system, which may have allowed the pathways connecting the magma and volatiles to the surface to close up. By the time new magma entered the system in 2006, this network of pathways was closed, forcing the volatiles to seek a new exit. In hindsight, the 2003-2005 period of varied and waning seismic tremor, and the inferred end of massive open venting, may have been a pivotal era at Okmok that eventually led to the 2008 eruption

Fault reactivation by fluid injection: Controls from stress state and injection rate

We studied the influence of stress state and fluid injection rate on the reactivation of faults. We conducted experiments on a saw-cut Westerly granite sample under triaxial stress conditions. Fault reactivation was triggered by injecting fluids through a borehole directly connected to the fault. Our results show that the peak fluid pressure at the borehole leading to reactivation depends on injection rate. The higher the injection rate, the higher the peak fluid pressure allowing fault reactivation. Elastic wave velocity measurements along fault strike highlight that high injection rates induce significant fluid pressure heterogeneities, which explains that the onset of fault reactivation is not determined by a conventional Coulomb law and effective stress principle, but rather by a nonlocal rupture initiation criterion. Our results demonstrate that increasing the injection rate enhances the transition from drained to undrained conditions, where local but intense fluid pressures perturbations can reactivate large faults

Dynamical system analysis and forecasting of deformation produced by an earthquake fault

We present a method of constructing low-dimensional nonlinear models describing the main dynamical features of a discrete 2D cellular fault zone, with many degrees of freedom, embedded in a 3D elastic solid. A given fault system is characterized by a set of parameters that describe the dynamics, rheology, property disorder, and fault geometry. Depending on the location in the system parameter space we show that the coarse dynamics of the fault can be confined to an attractor whose dimension is significantly smaller than the space in which the dynamics takes place. Our strategy of system reduction is to search for a few coherent structures that dominate the dynamics and to capture the interaction between these coherent structures. The identification of the basic interacting structures is obtained by applying the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) to the surface deformations fields that accompany strike-slip faulting accumulated over equal time intervals. We use a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) architecture for the identification of the system dynamics projected onto the subspace (model space) spanned by the most energetic coherent structures. The ANN is trained using a standard back-propagation algorithm to predict (map) the values of the observed model state at a future time given the observed model state at the present time. This ANN provides an approximate, large scale, dynamical model for the fault.Comment: 30 pages, 12 figure

Modeling seismic wave propagation and amplification in 1D/2D/3D linear and nonlinear unbounded media

To analyze seismic wave propagation in geological structures, it is possible to consider various numerical approaches: the finite difference method, the spectral element method, the boundary element method, the finite element method, the finite volume method, etc. All these methods have various advantages and drawbacks. The amplification of seismic waves in surface soil layers is mainly due to the velocity contrast between these layers and, possibly, to topographic effects around crests and hills. The influence of the geometry of alluvial basins on the amplification process is also know to be large. Nevertheless, strong heterogeneities and complex geometries are not easy to take into account with all numerical methods. 2D/3D models are needed in many situations and the efficiency/accuracy of the numerical methods in such cases is in question. Furthermore, the radiation conditions at infinity are not easy to handle with finite differences or finite/spectral elements whereas it is explicitely accounted in the Boundary Element Method. Various absorbing layer methods (e.g. F-PML, M-PML) were recently proposed to attenuate the spurious wave reflections especially in some difficult cases such as shallow numerical models or grazing incidences. Finally, strong earthquakes involve nonlinear effects in surficial soil layers. To model strong ground motion, it is thus necessary to consider the nonlinear dynamic behaviour of soils and simultaneously investigate seismic wave propagation in complex 2D/3D geological structures! Recent advances in numerical formulations and constitutive models in such complex situations are presented and discussed in this paper. A crucial issue is the availability of the field/laboratory data to feed and validate such models.Comment: of International Journal Geomechanics (2010) 1-1