Replica analysis of overfitting in regression models for time-to-event data

Overfitting, which happens when the number of parameters in a model is too large compared to the number of data points available for determining these parameters, is a serious and growing problem in survival analysis. While modern medicine presents us with data of unprecedented dimensionality, these data cannot yet be used effectively for clinical outcome prediction. Standard error measures in maximum likelihood regression, such as p-values and z-scores, are blind to overfitting, and even for Cox's proportional hazards model (the main tool of medical statisticians), one finds in literature only rules of thumb on the number of samples required to avoid overfitting. In this paper we present a mathematical theory of overfitting in regression models for time-to-event data, which aims to increase our quantitative understanding of the problem and provide practical tools with which to correct regression outcomes for the impact of overfitting. It is based on the replica method, a statistical mechanical technique for the analysis of heterogeneous many-variable systems that has been used successfully for several decades in physics, biology, and computer science, but not yet in medical statistics. We develop the theory initially for arbitrary regression models for time-to-event data, and verify its predictions in detail for the popular Cox model.Comment: 37 pages, 9 figure

Low-Rank Discriminative Least Squares Regression for Image Classification

Latest least squares regression (LSR) methods mainly try to learn slack regression targets to replace strict zero-one labels. However, the difference of intra-class targets can also be highlighted when enlarging the distance between different classes, and roughly persuing relaxed targets may lead to the problem of overfitting. To solve above problems, we propose a low-rank discriminative least squares regression model (LRDLSR) for multi-class image classification. Specifically, LRDLSR class-wisely imposes low-rank constraint on the intra-class regression targets to encourage its compactness and similarity. Moreover, LRDLSR introduces an additional regularization term on the learned targets to avoid the problem of overfitting. These two improvements are helpful to learn a more discriminative projection for regression and thus achieving better classification performance. Experimental results over a range of image databases demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed LRDLSR method