15,648 research outputs found

    Probability Logic for Harsanyi Type Spaces

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    Probability logic has contributed to significant developments in belief types for game-theoretical economics. We present a new probability logic for Harsanyi Type spaces, show its completeness, and prove both a de-nesting property and a unique extension theorem. We then prove that multi-agent interactive epistemology has greater complexity than its single-agent counterpart by showing that if the probability indices of the belief language are restricted to a finite set of rationals and there are finitely many propositional letters, then the canonical space for probabilistic beliefs with one agent is finite while the canonical one with at least two agents has the cardinality of the continuum. Finally, we generalize the three notions of definability in multimodal logics to logics of probabilistic belief and knowledge, namely implicit definability, reducibility, and explicit definability. We find that S5-knowledge can be implicitly defined by probabilistic belief but not reduced to it and hence is not explicitly definable by probabilistic belief

    Invasive Wild pigs as primary nest predators for Wild turkeys

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    Depredation of wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) nests is a leading cause of reduced recruitment for the recovering and iconic game species. invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofa) are known to depredate nests, and have been expanding throughout the distributed range of wild turkeys in north America. We sought to gain better insight on the magnitude of wild pigs depredating wild turkey nests. We constructed simulated wild turkey nests throughout the home ranges of 20 GPS-collared wild pigs to evaluate nest depredation relative to three periods within the nesting season (i.e., early, peak, and late) and two nest densities (moderate = 12.5-25 nests/km2, high = 25-50 nests/km2) in south-central Texas, USA during March–June 2016. Overall, the estimated probability of nest depredation by wild pigs was 0.3, equivalent to native species of nest predators in the study area (e.g., gray fox [Urocyon cinereoargenteus], raccoon [Procyon lotor], and coyote [Canis latrans]). female wild pigs exhibited a constant rate of depredation regardless of nesting period or density of nests. However, male wild pigs increased their rate of depredation in areas with higher nest densities. Management efforts should remove wild pigs to reduce nest failure in wild turkey populations especially where recruitment is low

    Macroscopically local correlations can violate information causality

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    Although quantum mechanics is a very successful theory, its foundations are still a subject of intense debate. One of the main problems is the fact that quantum mechanics is based on abstract mathematical axioms, rather than on physical principles. Quantum information theory has recently provided new ideas from which one could obtain physical axioms constraining the resulting statistics one can obtain in experiments. Information causality and macroscopic locality are two principles recently proposed to solve this problem. However none of them were proven to define the set of correlations one can observe. In this paper, we present an extension of information causality and study its consequences. It is shown that the two above-mentioned principles are inequivalent: if the correlations allowed by nature were the ones satisfying macroscopic locality, information causality would be violated. This gives more confidence in information causality as a physical principle defining the possible correlation allowed by nature.Comment: are welcome. 6 pages, 4 figs. This is the originally submitted version. The published version contains some bounds on quantum realizations of d2dd isotropic boxes (table 1), found by T. Vertesi, who kindly shared them with u

    Survival and Growth of American Alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) hatchlings after artificial incubation and repatriation

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    Hatchling American Alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) produced from artificially incubated wild eggs were returned to their natal areas (repatriated). We compared artificially incubated and repatriated hatchlings released within and outside the maternal alligator’s home range with naturally incubated hatchlings captured and released within the maternal alligator’s home range on Lake Apopka, Lake Griffin, and Orange Lake in Florida. We used probability of recapture and total length at approximately nine months after hatching as indices of survival and growth rates. Artificially incubated hatchlings released outside of the maternal alligator’s home range had lower recapture probabilities than either naturally incubated hatchlings or artificially incubated hatchlings released near the original nest site. Recapture probabilities of other treatments did not differ significantly. Artificially incubated hatchlings were approximately 6% shorter than naturally incubated hatchlings at approximately nine months after hatching. We concluded that repatriation of hatchlings probably would not have long-term effects on populations because of the resiliency of alligator populations to alterations of early age-class survival and growth rates of the magnitude that we observed. Repatriation of hatchlings may be an economical alternative to repatriation of older juveniles for population restoration. However, the location of release may affect subsequent survival and growth

    Abundance, distribution, and habitat of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) off California, 1990−2003

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    Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) are regularly seen off the U.S. West Coast, where they forage on jellyfish (Scyphomedusae) during summer and fall. Aerial line-transect surveys were conducted in neritic waters (<92 m depth) off central and northern California during 1990−2003, providing the first foraging population estimates for Pacific leatherback turtles. Males and females of about 1.1 to 2.1 m length were observed. Estimated abundance was linked to the Northern Oscillation Index and ranged from 12 (coefficient of variation [CV] =0.75) in 1995 to 379 (CV= 0.23) in 1990, averaging 178 (CV= 0.15). Greatest densities were found off central California, where oceanographic retention areas or upwelling shadows created favorable habitat for leatherback turtle prey. Results from independent telemetry studies have linked leatherback turtles off the U.S. West Coast to one of the two largest remaining Pacific breeding populations, at Jamursba Medi, Indonesia. Nearshore waters off California thus represent an important foraging region for the critically endangered Pacific leatherback turtle

    Optimization of resource allocation can explain the temporal dynamics and honesty of sexual signals

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    In species in which males are free to dynamically alter their allocation to sexual signaling over the breeding season, the optimal investment in signaling should depend on both a male’s state and the level of competition he faces at any given time. We developed a dynamic optimization model within a game‐theoretical framework to explore the resulting signaling dynamics at both individual and population levels and tested two key model predictions with empirical data on three‐spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) males subjected to dietary manipulation (carotenoid availability): (1) fish in better nutritional condition should be able to maintain their signal for longer over the breeding season, resulting in an increasingly positive correlation between nutritional status and signal (i.e., increasing signal honesty), and (2) female preference for more ornamented males should thus increase over the breeding season. Both predictions were supported by the experimental data. Our model shows how such patterns can emerge from the optimization of resource allocation to signaling in a competitive situation. The key determinants of the honesty and dynamics of sexual signaling are the condition dependency of male survival, the initial frequency distribution of nutritional condition in the male population, and the cost of signaling

    Effects of low level military training flights on wading bird colonies in Florida

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    During 1983 and 1984 the effect of low level military training flights on the establishment. size and reproductive success of wading bird colonies was studied in Florida. Based on the indirect evidence of colony distributions and turnover rates in relation to military areas (training routes designated to 500 feet or less above ground level and military operations areas). there was no demonstrated effect of military activity on wading bird colony establishment or size on a statewide basis. Colony distributions were random with respect to military areas and turnover rates were within 2% when military and non-military areas were compared. Colony distributions and turnover rates, however. were related to the amount and type.Les tuer-tne or freshwater) of wetland. respectively. During two breeding seasons the behavioral responses and reproductive success of selected species were monitored in a non-habituated treatment colony (military overflights) and a control colony (no overflights). Breeding wading birds responded to F-16 overflights at 420 knots indicated airspeed. 82-84% maximum rpm. 500 feet above ground level and sound levels ranging from 55-100 dBA by exhibiting no response. looking up or changing position (usually to an alert posture): no productivity limiting responses were observed. High-nesting Great Egrets responded more than other species, nestling Great Egrets and Cattle Egrets responded significantly (r <.05) more intensely than adults of their respective species, and adults responded less during incubation and late chick-rearing than at other times. In addition, no differences in adult attendance, aggressive interactions or chick feeding rates were observed to result from F-16 overflights. No evidence of habituation to overflights was noted. Humans entering the colony or airboats approaching the colony vicinity elicited the most severe responses (flushing and panic flights) observed at both sites. Since relatively little coastal military activity occurs at low levels ( ~500 ft) and only one Brown Pelican colony (5-6% of the breeding population) was located in such an area, the reproductive success of five, more lIexposedll study species (Great Egrets, Snowy Egrets, Tricolored Herons, Little Blue Herons, Cattle Egrets) nesting in interior freshwater colonies was studied. Reproductive activity including such factors as nest success, nestling survival, nestling mortality, and nesting chronology was independent of F-16 overflights but related to ecological factors including colony location, colony characteristics and climatology. The responses to and effects of F-16 overflights, as reported here, should not be considered representative of military aircraft at lower altitudes or greater noise levels. (194 pages
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