Advertising and Word-of-Mouth Effects on Pre-launch Consumer Interest and Initial Sales of Experience Products

This study examines how consumers' interest in a new experience product develops as a result of advertising and word-of-mouth activities during the pre-launch period. The empirical settings are the U.S. motion picture and video game industries. The focal variables include weekly ad spend, blog volume, online search volume during pre-launch periods, opening-week sales, and product characteristics. We treat pre-launch search volume of keywords as a measure of pre-launch consumer interest in the related product. To identify probable persistent effects among the pre-launch time-series variables, we apply a vector autoregressive modeling approach. We find that blog postings have permanent, trend-setting effects on pre-launch consumer interest in a new product, while advertising has only temporary effects. In the U.S. motion picture industry, the four-week cumulative elasticity of pre-launch consumer interest is 0.187 to advertising and 0.635 to blog postings. In the U.S. video game industry, the elasticities are 0.093 and 1.306, respectively. We also find long-run co-evolution between blog and search volume, which suggests that consumers' interest in the upcoming product cannot grow without bounds for a given level of blog volume

Taking Stock of the Digital Revolution: A Critical Analysis and Agenda for Digital, Social Media, and Mobile Marketing Research

Marketing has been revolutionized due to the rise of digital media and new forms of electronic communication. In response, academic researchers have attempted to explain consumer- and firm-related phenomena related to digital, social media, and mobile marketing (DSMM). This paper presents a critical historical analysis of, and forward-looking agenda for, this work. First, we assess marketing’s contribution to understanding DSMM since 2000. Extant research falls under three eras, and a fourth era currently underway. Era 1 focused on digital tools and platforms as consumer and marketer decision aids. Era 2 studied online communications channels (e.g., online forums) as word of mouth marketing “laboratories,” capturing the potential of DSMM for social information transmission. Era 3 embraced the notion of “connected consumers” by considering various antecedents and consequences of socially interconnected consumers in marketplaces. Era 4, currently starting, considers mobile marketing and brings psychological and social theories to bear on emergent DSMM issues. Second, we critique the DSMM literature and advance a series of recommendations for future research. While we find much to applaud, we argue that several problems limit the relevance of this research moving forward and suggest ways to alleviate these concerns moving forward

Leveraging analytics to produce compelling and profitable film content

Producing compelling film content profitably is a top priority to the long-term prosperity of the film industry. Advances in digital technologies, increasing availabilities of granular big data, rapid diffusion of analytic techniques, and intensified competition from user generated content and original content produced by Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) platforms have created unparalleled needs and opportunities for film producers to leverage analytics in content production. Built upon the theories of value creation and film production, this article proposes a conceptual framework of key analytic techniques that film producers may engage throughout the production process, such as script analytics, talent analytics, and audience analytics. The article further synthesizes the state-of-the-art research on and applications of these analytics, discuss the prospect of leveraging analytics in film production, and suggest fruitful avenues for future research with important managerial implications

Using Consumer-Generated Social Media Posts to Improve Forecasts of Television Premiere Viewership: Extending Diffusion of Innovation Theory

Billions of US dollars in transactions occur each year between media companies and advertisers purchasing commercials on television shows to reach target demographics. This study investigates how consumer enthusiasm can be quantified (via social media posts) as an input to improve forecast models of television series premiere viewership beyond inputs that are typically used in the entertainment industry. Results support that Twitter activity (volume of tweets and retweets) is a driver of consumer viewership of unscripted programs (i.e., reality or competition shows). As such, incorporating electronic word of mouth (eWOM) into forecasting models improves accuracy for predictions of unscripted shows. Furthermore, trend analysis suggests it is possible to calculate a forecast as early as 14 days prior to the premiere date. This research also extends the Diffusion of Innovation theory and diffusion modeling by applying them in the television entertainment environment. Evidence was found supporting Rogers’s (2003) heterophilous communication, also referred to by Granovetter (1973) as “weak ties.” Further, despite a diffusion pattern that differs from other categories, entertainment consumption demonstrates evidence of a mass media (external) channel and an interpersonal eWOM (internal) channel

General Sentiment Decomposition: opinion mining based on raw Natural Language text

The importance of person-to-person communication about a certain topic (Word of Mouth) is growing day by day, especially for decision-makers. These phenomena can be directly observed in online social networks. For example, the rise of influencers and social media managers. If more people talk about a specific product, then more people are encouraged to buy it and vice versa. Forby, those people usually leave a review for it. Such a review will directly impact the product, and this effect is amplified proportionally to how much the reviewer is considered to be trustworthy by the potential new customer. Furthermore, considering the negative reporting bias, it is easy to understand how customer satisfaction is of absolute interest for a company (as well as citizens' trust is for a politician). Textual data have then proved extremely useful, but they are complex, as the language is. For that, many approaches focus more on producing well-performing classifiers and ignore the highly complex interpretability of their models. Instead, we propose a framework able to produce a good sentiment classifier with a particular focus on the model interpretability. After analyzing the impact of Word of Mouth on earnings and the related psychological aspects, we propose an algorithm to extract the sentiment from a Natural Language text corpus. The combined approach of Neural Networks, characterized by high predictive power but at the cost of complex interpretation (usually considered as black-boxes), with more straightforward and informative models, allows not only to predict how much a sentence is positive (negative) but also to quantify a sentiment with a numeric value. In fact, the General Sentiment Decomposition (GSD) framework that we propose is based on a combination of Threshold-based Naive Bayes (an improved version of the original algorithm), SentiWordNet (an enriched Lexical Database for Sentiment Analysis tasks), and the Words Embeddings features (a high dimensional representation of words) that directly comes from the usage of Neural Networks. Moreover, using the GSD framework, we assess an objective sentiment scoring that improves the results' interpretation in many fields. For example, it is possible to identify specific critical sectors that require intervention to improve the offered services, find the company's strengths (useful for advertising campaigns), and, if time information is present, analyze trends on macro/micro topics. Besides, we have to consider that NL text data can be associated (or not) with a sentiment label, for example: 'positive' or 'negative'. To support further decision-making, we apply the proposed method to labeled (Booking.com, TripAdvisor.com) and unlabelled (Twitter.com) data, analyzing the sentiment of people who discuss a particular issue. In this way, we identify the aspects perceived as critical by the people concerning the "feedback" they publish on the web and quantify how happy (or not) they are about a specific problem. In particular, for Booking.com and TripAdvisor.com, we focus on customer satisfaction, whilst for Twitter.com, the main topic is climate change