Predicting human mobility through the assimilation of social media traces into mobility models

Predicting human mobility flows at different spatial scales is challenged by the heterogeneity of individual trajectories and the multi-scale nature of transportation networks. As vast amounts of digital traces of human behaviour become available, an opportunity arises to improve mobility models by integrating into them proxy data on mobility collected by a variety of digital platforms and location-aware services. Here we propose a hybrid model of human mobility that integrates a large-scale publicly available dataset from a popular photo-sharing system with the classical gravity model, under a stacked regression procedure. We validate the performance and generalizability of our approach using two ground-truth datasets on air travel and daily commuting in the United States: using two different cross-validation schemes we show that the hybrid model affords enhanced mobility prediction at both spatial scales.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figure

On the Dynamics of Human Proximity for Data Diffusion in Ad-Hoc Networks

We report on a data-driven investigation aimed at understanding the dynamics of message spreading in a real-world dynamical network of human proximity. We use data collected by means of a proximity-sensing network of wearable sensors that we deployed at three different social gatherings, simultaneously involving several hundred individuals. We simulate a message spreading process over the recorded proximity network, focusing on both the topological and the temporal properties. We show that by using an appropriate technique to deal with the temporal heterogeneity of proximity events, a universal statistical pattern emerges for the delivery times of messages, robust across all the data sets. Our results are useful to set constraints for generic processes of data dissemination, as well as to validate established models of human mobility and proximity that are frequently used to simulate realistic behaviors.Comment: A. Panisson et al., On the dynamics of human proximity for data diffusion in ad-hoc networks, Ad Hoc Netw. (2011

Electrophoretic Analysis of Blood Serum Proteins in Three Species of Water Snakes (Genus Nerodia)

Serum from three species of water snakes (Nerodia rhombifera, N. erythrogaster and N. fasciata) from one geographic region was analyzed electrophoretically on cellulose acetate, and anodic mobility and relative concentration of the fractions were determined by a recording densitometer with an automatic integrator. Classification of fractions was based on mobility (Rf, values), and for identification purposes, bands were labeled in order of decreasing mobility (albumin and alpha₁, alpha₂, alpha₃, beta₁, beta₂, gamma₁, and gamma₂ globulins). Seven fractions were identified in each species with alpha₃ being absent from N. rhombifera and N. erythrogaster, and only one gamma fraction was observed in N. fasciata. In the three species, gamma globulin was the predominant protein (42-46%), and albumin levels were characteristically low ;however, a distinct difference was observed in albumin concentration (N. fasciata, 7%; N. rhombifera and N. erythrogaster, 16-18%). The Rf values and relative concentrations of other globulins showed heterogeneity in the three species, with the protein pattern of N. fasciata being distinct from the other two species

Self-Employment of Immigrants: A Cross-National Study of 17 Western Societies

This study examines the role of immigrants’ country of origin, country of destination and combinations thereof (settings or communities) in the likelihood of immigrants being selfemployed. I pooled census data from three classic immigrant countries (Australia, Canada and the United States) and labor-force surveys from 14 countries in the European Union for a cross-national data set. Using multilevel techniques, I find that (1) immigrants from non-Christian countries of origin have higher odds of self-employment, (2) higher levels of unemployment among natives increase the odds of self-employment, and (3) selfemployment is more frequent among immigrant communities that are small, highly educated and have a longer settlement history.

Gravity model explained by the radiation model on a population landscape

Understanding the mechanisms behind human mobility patterns is crucial to improve our ability to optimize and predict traffic flows. Two representative mobility models, i.e., radiation and gravity models, have been extensively compared to each other against various empirical data sets, while their fundamental relation is far from being fully understood. In order to study such a relation, we first model the heterogeneous population landscape by generating a fractal geometry of sites and then by assigning to each site a population independently drawn from a power-law distribution. Then the radiation model on this population landscape, which we call the radiation-on-landscape (RoL) model, is compared to the gravity model to derive the distance exponent in the gravity model in terms of the properties of the population landscape, which is confirmed by the numerical simulations. Consequently, we provide a possible explanation for the origin of the distance exponent in terms of the properties of the heterogeneous population landscape, enabling us to better understand mobility patterns constrained by the travel distance.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

Causal Inference in Disease Spread across a Heterogeneous Social System

Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease spread critically relies on uncovering the underlying diffusion mechanisms, which is challenging due to invisible causality between events and their time-evolving intensity. We infer causal relationships between infections and quantify the reflexivity of a meta-population, the level of feedback on event occurrences by its internal dynamics (likelihood of a regional outbreak triggered by previous cases). These are enabled by our new proposed model, the Latent Influence Point Process (LIPP) which models disease spread by incorporating macro-level internal dynamics of meta-populations based on human mobility. We analyse 15-year dengue cases in Queensland, Australia. From our causal inference, outbreaks are more likely driven by statewide global diffusion over time, leading to complex behavior of disease spread. In terms of reflexivity, precursory growth and symmetric decline in populous regions is attributed to slow but persistent feedback on preceding outbreaks via inter-group dynamics, while abrupt growth but sharp decline in peripheral areas is led by rapid but inconstant feedback via intra-group dynamics. Our proposed model reveals probabilistic causal relationships between discrete events based on intra- and inter-group dynamics and also covers direct and indirect diffusion processes (contact-based and vector-borne disease transmissions).Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1711.0635

Multi-scale Population and Mobility Estimation with Geo-tagged Tweets

Recent outbreaks of Ebola and Dengue viruses have again elevated the significance of the capability to quickly predict disease spread in an emergent situation. However, existing approaches usually rely heavily on the time-consuming census processes, or the privacy-sensitive call logs, leading to their unresponsive nature when facing the abruptly changing dynamics in the event of an outbreak. In this paper we study the feasibility of using large-scale Twitter data as a proxy of human mobility to model and predict disease spread. We report that for Australia, Twitter users' distribution correlates well the census-based population distribution, and that the Twitter users' travel patterns appear to loosely follow the gravity law at multiple scales of geographic distances, i.e. national level, state level and metropolitan level. The radiation model is also evaluated on this dataset though it has shown inferior fitness as a result of Australia's sparse population and large landmass. The outcomes of the study form the cornerstones for future work towards a model-based, responsive prediction method from Twitter data for disease spread.Comment: 1st International Workshop on Big Data Analytics for Biosecurity (BioBAD2015), 4 page