Strategic standardisation of smart systems: A roadmapping process in support of innovation

With increasing awareness among policymakers and other stakeholders of the importance of standards in supporting innovation, many national governments and standards organisations are taking strategic foresight approaches to standardisation . This is especially the case for ICT-based ‘smart systems’, where an increasing number of different technologies and systems are interconnected to each other, involving a complex variety of actors. Roadmapping is a widely used tool to support such strategic policy processes, yet there remain significant challenges in terms of structuring and managing roadmapping exercises. This paper proposes a systematic process of managing roadmapping practices to develop effective strategies for standardisation in support of innovation. Based on literature regarding public-level strategy roadmaps and reviews of existing standardisation roadmapping exercises, a more systematic process has been developed, incorporating activities and tools to address increased challenges associated with standardisation of such complex areas. Findings of the research not only provide guidance on how roadmapping processes can be structured and organised to more effectively address standardisation issues in innovation strategies for smart systems, but also highlight policy implications, including potential roles for government in supporting standardisation efforts.The authors would like to thank Gatsby Charitable Foundation and Samsung Scholarship Foundation for their financial support, and all interviewees for sharing their knowledge and experiences, which provided invaluable insight for the research. Thanks are also due to two anonymous reviewers who provided constructive feedback and suggestions, which made the paper much stronger than before.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.04.01

5th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) - Engage today to shape tomorrow

The practice-oriented paper reflects on the results of a strategic technology roadmapping project realised in the Green Triangle region of South Australia. The project integrated different methods in order to provide policy recommendations for the renewal of the forest industry in the region. Firstly, the project created a multi-criteria assessment framework for the evaluation of the present state of local companies. Secondly, the project made three value chain depictions: one that described the present value chain based on physical, monetary and information flows, and two so-called ‘potential’ value chain descriptions. Thirdly, the projectformulated technology roadmaps and assessed the potential for forest industry renewal. Fourthly, the project provided detailed policy recommendations based on the findings in the project.The integrated methodological approach of the project provided a robust basis for construction of policy recommendations. The company assessment grouped the local companies in four categories for comparative assessment purposes: forest owners, harvesters and hauliers, sawmills, and specialised suppliers. For the roadmap construction, the main information categories were drivers, markets, regulation, customer needs, solutions, and enabling technologies, and the specific dynamics connected to all these categories. This information was structured into three temporal spans: present, short term (ca. 3-5 years)and long term (ca. 5-10 years).There are, at least, three novel aspects of the project. Firstly, the integration of multi-criteria evaluation, value chain analysis and roadmapping creates new opportunities, but also new challenges. Secondly, the future-oriented view of the Australian forest industry is a new aspect. Thirdly, the project also had a strong regional policy perspective, especially connected with the discussions on path dependency and path creation in the regional development context.The project had both practical and managerial implications. Firstly, the company assessment identified the domains where each individual firm had weaknesses as well as where the group as a whole lagged global best practice. Secondly, the value chain analysis showed strengths and weaknesses of the present structure, but also delineated the necessary components to be developed in order to move towards higher value added production. Thirdly, the roadmaps showed the frontiers of research and business in advanced cellulose fibre-based industries, and made possible the positioning of the Green Triangle region.The project had two wider implications for policy. Firstly, the integrated methodological approach of the foresight exercise enabled the production of detailed policy recommendations that were embedded in the local industrial context. Secondly, the project open a window of opportunity to consider so-called platform policies, that is, policies that aim to develop the fragmented regional structure of the Green Triangle’s forest industry towards an integrated cluster-based platform, which would enable the region to benefit from agglomeration economics through a collaborative strategy.</p

Scenarios and futures in the governance of sustainable innovation pathways: the case of hydrogen energy

Global climate change and other sustainability challenges demand a transition to more sustainable systems. The long-term and complex nature of such transitions invites longterm planning, but it also suggests that the future is unpredictable and contested. Moreover, the act of envisioning, forecasting and planning for possible futures itself influences transitions, because visions and expectations form part of the institutional environment that shapes the behaviour of policymakers, innovators and others. Futures activities are thus part of the process of transition. A key source of technological expectations and visions are published technology futures documents, and the processes that are used to develop them. How are such published futures created, and why are they produced? How can we assess the quality of published futures? What role do computer models play in shaping such futures, and how can computer models be used to open up futures to alternative framings and perspectives? How can published futures be improved in order to facilitate the governance of transitions to sustainability? These are the questions that motivate this PhD, and which are the subject of the portfolio of publications and this commentary. These questions are addressed through a case: hydrogen energy technologies. A key theme that runs throughout the publications is that the future is a contested space in which actors bid for their preferred futures, express their interests and their perspectives, and attempt to influence the processes of both appraisal of and commitment to particular futures. The thesis presents a variety of ways in which participatory scenario development can be combined with other methods to ‘open up’ futures and enable consideration and representation of diverse perspectives, deep uncertainty, and plural pathways

An evidence based approach to technology roadmapping

The aim of this study was to investigate the role of technology roadmapping within commercial and industrial domains at a sector or industry wide level, and to develop an information model that could be used to enhance the generic technology roadmapping process. The study focused on the development of version three of the Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap to support the development of low carbon vehicles in a global marketplace. The development of a ‘real’ sector level technology roadmap enabled ideas in relation to data collection elements to be tested, especially in terms of personnel, participants and publication channels. The various tools currently used to develop technology roadmaps were identified and assessed for their suitability for use in this study. A mixture of data collection techniques were used to generate data and investigate the process of developing a core data set, associated data, as well as the identification of the relationship between potentially disparate items of information. FV Thematic Group members took part in workshops to elicit data, inform the evolution of the data collection process and inform the development of the information protocol. Results from the data collection exercise indicated that not all technology issues were technology focused, non technology issues presented a challenge not only in terms of representation but of ownership as well. Tools such as Technology Readiness Levels were adapted and utilised to create a ‘rich picture’ of multi-dimensional and customised roadmap views. The study presents an information protocol to support the development of technology roadmaps primarily in a digital format and considers elements such as data collection, information management, preservation, representation, scope and validation,. The findings of this study suggest that the development of a generic information model to support the technology roadmapping process is timely and that inclusion of all elements of the protocol lead to the development of a technology roadmap that is fit for purpose