Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Predicting the expected behavior of agents that learn about agents: the CLRI framework

We describe a framework and equations used to model and predict the behavior of multi-agent systems (MASs) with learning agents. A difference equation is used for calculating the progression of an agent's error in its decision function, thereby telling us how the agent is expected to fare in the MAS. The equation relies on parameters which capture the agent's learning abilities, such as its change rate, learning rate and retention rate, as well as relevant aspects of the MAS such as the impact that agents have on each other. We validate the framework with experimental results using reinforcement learning agents in a market system, as well as with other experimental results gathered from the AI literature. Finally, we use PAC-theory to show how to calculate bounds on the values of the learning parameters

CURIOUS: Intrinsically Motivated Modular Multi-Goal Reinforcement Learning

In open-ended environments, autonomous learning agents must set their own goals and build their own curriculum through an intrinsically motivated exploration. They may consider a large diversity of goals, aiming to discover what is controllable in their environments, and what is not. Because some goals might prove easy and some impossible, agents must actively select which goal to practice at any moment, to maximize their overall mastery on the set of learnable goals. This paper proposes CURIOUS, an algorithm that leverages 1) a modular Universal Value Function Approximator with hindsight learning to achieve a diversity of goals of different kinds within a unique policy and 2) an automated curriculum learning mechanism that biases the attention of the agent towards goals maximizing the absolute learning progress. Agents focus sequentially on goals of increasing complexity, and focus back on goals that are being forgotten. Experiments conducted in a new modular-goal robotic environment show the resulting developmental self-organization of a learning curriculum, and demonstrate properties of robustness to distracting goals, forgetting and changes in body properties.Comment: Accepted at ICML 201

Mapping Instructions and Visual Observations to Actions with Reinforcement Learning

We propose to directly map raw visual observations and text input to actions for instruction execution. While existing approaches assume access to structured environment representations or use a pipeline of separately trained models, we learn a single model to jointly reason about linguistic and visual input. We use reinforcement learning in a contextual bandit setting to train a neural network agent. To guide the agent's exploration, we use reward shaping with different forms of supervision. Our approach does not require intermediate representations, planning procedures, or training different models. We evaluate in a simulated environment, and show significant improvements over supervised learning and common reinforcement learning variants.Comment: In Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP), 201

Intrinsically Motivated Goal Exploration Processes with Automatic Curriculum Learning

Intrinsically motivated spontaneous exploration is a key enabler of autonomous lifelong learning in human children. It enables the discovery and acquisition of large repertoires of skills through self-generation, self-selection, self-ordering and self-experimentation of learning goals. We present an algorithmic approach called Intrinsically Motivated Goal Exploration Processes (IMGEP) to enable similar properties of autonomous or self-supervised learning in machines. The IMGEP algorithmic architecture relies on several principles: 1) self-generation of goals, generalized as fitness functions; 2) selection of goals based on intrinsic rewards; 3) exploration with incremental goal-parameterized policy search and exploitation of the gathered data with a batch learning algorithm; 4) systematic reuse of information acquired when targeting a goal for improving towards other goals. We present a particularly efficient form of IMGEP, called Modular Population-Based IMGEP, that uses a population-based policy and an object-centered modularity in goals and mutations. We provide several implementations of this architecture and demonstrate their ability to automatically generate a learning curriculum within several experimental setups including a real humanoid robot that can explore multiple spaces of goals with several hundred continuous dimensions. While no particular target goal is provided to the system, this curriculum allows the discovery of skills that act as stepping stone for learning more complex skills, e.g. nested tool use. We show that learning diverse spaces of goals with intrinsic motivations is more efficient for learning complex skills than only trying to directly learn these complex skills