Complex and Adaptive Dynamical Systems: A Primer

An thorough introduction is given at an introductory level to the field of quantitative complex system science, with special emphasis on emergence in dynamical systems based on network topologies. Subjects treated include graph theory and small-world networks, a generic introduction to the concepts of dynamical system theory, random Boolean networks, cellular automata and self-organized criticality, the statistical modeling of Darwinian evolution, synchronization phenomena and an introduction to the theory of cognitive systems. It inludes chapter on Graph Theory and Small-World Networks, Chaos, Bifurcations and Diffusion, Complexity and Information Theory, Random Boolean Networks, Cellular Automata and Self-Organized Criticality, Darwinian evolution, Hypercycles and Game Theory, Synchronization Phenomena and Elements of Cognitive System Theory.Comment: unformatted version of the textbook; published in Springer, Complexity Series (2008, second edition 2010

An Initial Framework Assessing the Safety of Complex Systems

Trabajo presentado en la Conference on Complex Systems, celebrada online del 7 al 11 de diciembre de 2020.Atmospheric blocking events, that is large-scale nearly stationary atmospheric pressure patterns, are often associated with extreme weather in the mid-latitudes, such as heat waves and cold spells which have significant consequences on ecosystems, human health and economy. The high impact of blocking events has motivated numerous studies. However, there is not yet a comprehensive theory explaining their onset, maintenance and decay and their numerical prediction remains a challenge. In recent years, a number of studies have successfully employed complex network descriptions of fluid transport to characterize dynamical patterns in geophysical flows. The aim of the current work is to investigate the potential of so called Lagrangian flow networks for the detection and perhaps forecasting of atmospheric blocking events. The network is constructed by associating nodes to regions of the atmosphere and establishing links based on the flux of material between these nodes during a given time interval. One can then use effective tools and metrics developed in the context of graph theory to explore the atmospheric flow properties. In particular, Ser-Giacomi et al. [1] showed how optimal paths in a Lagrangian flow network highlight distinctive circulation patterns associated with atmospheric blocking events. We extend these results by studying the behavior of selected network measures (such as degree, entropy and harmonic closeness centrality)at the onset of and during blocking situations, demonstrating their ability to trace the spatio-temporal characteristics of these events.This research was conducted as part of the CAFE (Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes) Innovative Training Network which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 813844

Advances in Computer Science and Engineering

The book Advances in Computer Science and Engineering constitutes the revised selection of 23 chapters written by scientists and researchers from all over the world. The chapters cover topics in the scientific fields of Applied Computing Techniques, Innovations in Mechanical Engineering, Electrical Engineering and Applications and Advances in Applied Modeling

Mathematical Methods, Modelling and Applications

This volume deals with novel high-quality research results of a wide class of mathematical models with applications in engineering, nature, and social sciences. Analytical and numeric, deterministic and uncertain dimensions are treated. Complex and multidisciplinary models are treated, including novel techniques of obtaining observation data and pattern recognition. Among the examples of treated problems, we encounter problems in engineering, social sciences, physics, biology, and health sciences. The novelty arises with respect to the mathematical treatment of the problem. Mathematical models are built, some of them under a deterministic approach, and other ones taking into account the uncertainty of the data, deriving random models. Several resulting mathematical representations of the models are shown as equations and systems of equations of different types: difference equations, ordinary differential equations, partial differential equations, integral equations, and algebraic equations. Across the chapters of the book, a wide class of approaches can be found to solve the displayed mathematical models, from analytical to numeric techniques, such as finite difference schemes, finite volume methods, iteration schemes, and numerical integration methods

Balancing model complexity and inferential capability for disease modelling

Mathematical models for study of infectious diseases have a rich history but it is only in recent years that directly fitting highly complex models to data has become possible. This has lead to a quantum leap in the capabilities of mathematical modelling for contributing to an evidence base for policy decisions. There still remains a large gap between the most complex models we can simulate and the most complex models we can perform inference on resulting in a trade-off between model complexity and inferential capability. This thesis tackles three separate problems with this trade-off in mind. First, we study the dynamics of epidemics on degree heterogeneous clustered networks. Network models have many attractions but possess drawbacks such as one must generally resort to stochastic simulation for clustered networks, which represent realistic societal structure, as closed-form approximations of the dynamics do not hold in the highly clustered regime. Furthermore, data for these systems are hard to collect as they must measure the pairwise interactions of each individual - this lack of data limits the possibilities for applying inference. We develop a new model not requiring extensive simulations that approximates these dynamics more accurately than previous approaches, thus improving on the first problem mentioned. Second, across several chapters we analyse the role of household structure in the transmission and control of soil-transmitted helminths (STH). Starting with a hierarchical negative binomial regression for which inference can easily be performed but which neglects the non-independence of observations, we move on to develop a general methodology for constructing and performing Bayesian inference on stochastic household models that consider different transmission dynamics within and between the households in a population. This permits us to estimate the extent to which transmission occurs within, compared to between, households and simulate the effectiveness of various control strategies – with some exploiting the household structure. The limits to which this general methodology may be extended to arbitrary demographic classes and infection levels before inference with exact-likelihood methods no longer become computationally feasible is explored. Finally, we build a model of the global control programme for lymphatic filariasis at a regional level, forecasting the number of treatments required each year and their costs in order to reach elimination. A scenario where existing guidelines remained in place and a scenario where proposed guidelines incorporating a new treatment were considered. Our analysis was used by WHO as part of the evidence base for adopting precisely these new guidelines

International Conference on Mathematical Analysis and Applications in Science and Engineering – Book of Extended Abstracts

The present volume on Mathematical Analysis and Applications in Science and Engineering - Book of Extended Abstracts of the ICMASC’2022 collects the extended abstracts of the talks presented at the International Conference on Mathematical Analysis and Applications in Science and Engineering – ICMA2SC'22 that took place at the beautiful city of Porto, Portugal, in June 27th-June 29th 2022 (3 days). Its aim was to bring together researchers in every discipline of applied mathematics, science, engineering, industry, and technology, to discuss the development of new mathematical models, theories, and applications that contribute to the advancement of scientific knowledge and practice. Authors proposed research in topics including partial and ordinary differential equations, integer and fractional order equations, linear algebra, numerical analysis, operations research, discrete mathematics, optimization, control, probability, computational mathematics, amongst others. The conference was designed to maximize the involvement of all participants and will present the state-of- the-art research and the latest achievements.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio