The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics

This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs

Controlled self-organisation using learning classifier systems

The complexity of technical systems increases, breakdowns occur quite often. The mission of organic computing is to tame these challenges by providing degrees of freedom for self-organised behaviour. To achieve these goals, new methods have to be developed. The proposed observer/controller architecture constitutes one way to achieve controlled self-organisation. To improve its design, multi-agent scenarios are investigated. Especially, learning using learning classifier systems is addressed

NATURAL PHENOMENA AS POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON SOCIAL AND POLITICAL BEHAVIOR: THE EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD

Researchers use natural phenomena in a number of disciplines to help explain human behavioral outcomes. Research regarding the potential effects of magnetic fields on animal and human behavior indicates that fields could influence outcomes of interest to social scientists. Tests so far have been limited in scope. This work is a preliminary evaluation of whether the earth’s magnetic field influences human behavior it examines the baseline relationship exhibited between geomagnetic readings and a host of social and political outcomes. The emphasis on breadth of topical coverage in these statistical trials, rather than on depth of development for any one model, means that evidence is only suggestive – but geomagnetic readings frequently covary with social and political variables in a fashion that seems inexplicable in the absence of a causal relationship. The pattern often holds up in more-elaborate statistical models. Analysis provides compelling evidence that geomagnetic variables furnish valuable information to models. Many researchers are already aware of potential causal mechanisms that link human behavior to geomagnetic levels and this evidence provides a compelling case for continuing to develop the line of research with in-depth, focused analysis

Controlled self-organisation using learning classifier systems

The complexity of technical systems increases, breakdowns occur quite often. The mission of organic computing is to tame these challenges by providing degrees of freedom for self-organised behaviour. To achieve these goals, new methods have to be developed. The proposed observer/controller architecture constitutes one way to achieve controlled self-organisation. To improve its design, multi-agent scenarios are investigated. Especially, learning using learning classifier systems is addressed

A representação da cultura portuguesa por meio do uso de hashtags no Instagram: o caso da #vaparaforacadentro

A evolução da Tecnologia da Informação e da Internet traz consigo oportunidades de crescimento da sociedade como um todo. O surgimento dos media sociais tem transformado a forma de comunicação e interação dos indivíduos que as utilizam e, mais do que isso, influenciam na maneira com que as pessoas expressam as suas preferências, valores e crenças em diversas esferas como a economia, cultura, turismo, entre outras. O presente estudo teve o objetivo de analisar a representação da cultura portuguesa por meio do uso de hashtags no Instagram, tendo como caso de investigação a hashtag #vaparaforacadentro”, inicialmente criada para fomento do turismo interno em Portugal. Para tanto, foram utilizados os métodos digitais para coleta e extração de dados via hashtag, para análise qualitativa e quantitativa, a considerar a sua cultura de utilização e apropriações para outros fins que não sejam os que deram ensejo à sua criação. Os resultados demonstraram que os utilizadores se apropriaram da hashtag analisada para expressar elementos que representam a cultura portuguesa.The evolution of Information Technology and the Internet brings with it opportunities for the growth of society as a whole. The emergence of social media has transformed how individuals communicate and interact and, more than that, social media influence the way in which people express their preferences, values and beliefs in various spheres such as economy, culture, tourism, among others. The present study aimed to analyze the representation of Portuguese culture through the use of hashtags on Instagram, having as a case of investigation the hashtag “#vaparaforacadentro”, initially created to promote domestic tourism in Portugal. To this end, digital methods were used to collect and extract data via hashtag, for qualitative and quantitative analysis, considering its culture of use and appropriations for purposes other than those that gave rise to its creation. The results show that users appropriated the analyzed hashtag to express elements that represent Portuguese culture

Lugares da memória no projecto de arquitectura

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Arquitectura, Universidade Lusíada de Lisboa, 2019Exame público realizado em 10 de Janeiro de 2020Tempo e Memória como objecto de estudo, como matéria de análise, como matéria-prima da arquitectura; formas de inscrição e corporificação. Se se tomar a construção do tempo como a inscrição de imagens num determinado suporte espacial e a memória não apenas como o conjunto dessas imagens, mas também como o conjunto de relações que elas estabelecem entre si, admitindo o seu carácter dinâmico e evolutivo, estar-se-á perante o jogo de sombras através do qual a memória se expressa e estrutura. Um sistema de relações que associa ideias, conceitos, sensações, factos, objectos, acções, mais ou menos óbvios ou aparentes, que provoca reacções, que gera comportamentos, que estimula a imaginação, que produz conhecimento. Também a arquitectura pode ser entendida como um sistema de relações, em muito semelhante ao da memória, o que revela uma associação natural explicada pelo tempo e a suspeita de que a primeira não existe sem a segunda. Admitir que esse sistema, que esta dissertação pretende reflectir, assenta em processos de complexa definição, sujeitos a inumeráveis factores, muitos deles de ordem subjectiva, implica riscos incalculáveis, tanto no método e na estrutura como na linguagem ou no resultado, mas também no possível interesse que uma perspectiva multi-referencial por vezes acrescenta. Ainda assim, pretexto para uma discussão da presença da memória no desenvolvimento do projecto de arquitectura: as relações que, a vários níveis, se estabelecem entre uma e outro; as formas como a memória se manifesta e se corporifica nos diferentes estádios de concepção (antes de ser arquitectura) e até como se transforma depois de concluída a obra – comportamento face à passagem do tempo, ao uso e ocupações. Da definição etimológica, dicionarizada e enciclopédica ao cruzamento de algumas concepções científicas provenientes de diversas áreas do conhecimento; da memória individual à memória colectiva; da fisiologia cerebral e dos seus mecanismos à construção do tempo e à sua leitura histórica; das principais linhas da investigação em curso aos limites do saber contemporâneo; da inscrição das marcas no tempo à sua interpretação e aplicação futura; da descodificação dos sinais e da articulação multidisciplinar na identificação e construção dos lugares; da sua decadência e retorno ao estado puro (ruína) à sua preservação, transformação e sublimação mais ou menos simbólicas; da memória como corpo de referenciação colectivo à conservação do património histórico; da separação, integração e/ou metaforização da memória no projecto de arquitectura através da análise crítica de três exemplos distintos – casos de estudo.Time and Memory as subject of study, as matter of investigation, as architecture´s raw material; ways of inscription and embodiment. Taking the construction of time as the inscription of images in a specific spacial support and memory not only as the whole of those images, but also as the set of relationships established between them, admitting their dynamic and evolutive character, we would be beholding the shadow game through which memory expresses and structures itself. A system of relations which associates ideas, concepts, sensations, facts, objects, actions, more or less obvious or apparent, that provokes reactions, that generates behaviours, that stimulates imagination, that produces knowledge. Architecture can also be understood as a system of relations quite similar to memory's, which shows a natural association, explained by time and the suspicion that the former does not exist without the latter. To admit that that system, which this dissertation aims to reflect, is based on processes of complex definition, subjected to countless factors, many of which of subjective nature, implies inestimable risks, concerning method and strutcture as well as the language or the results, but yet to the possible interest that a multi-referencial perspective sometimes adds. Still, an excuse for discussing the presence of memory in the development of the architectural project: the relationships established between one and the other at various levels; the ways memory manifests and embodies itself in the different phases of conception (before turning into architecture) and even how it transforms after the work is finished – its reaction to the passage of time, its use and typologies of usage. From the etymological definition, dictionarized and encyclopedic, to the intersection of some scientific conceptions arising from several fields of knowledge; from individual to colective memory; from brain physiology and its mechanisms to the construction of time and its historic interpretation; from the running main vectors of investigation to the limits of contemporary knowledge; from the inscription of the signs onto time to its interpretation and future application; from deciphering the signs and the multidisciplinary articulation in the identification and construction of places; from its decadence and back to the purity state (ruin) to its preservation, transformation and sublimation more or less symbolic; from memory as body of colective referring to historic heritage conservation; memory's separation, integration and/or metaphorization in the architectural project through the analysis of three different examples: case studies

Retos y oportunidades de la investigación educativa: actas PhDay 2018 y IV Jornadas de Investigación en Educación

Todas las contribuciones presentadas en este Libro de Actas forman parte de la evaluación de seguimiento de los doctorandos de segundo año a tiempo completo y tercer años a tiempo parcial del Programa de Doctorado en Educación de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Cada trabajo ha sido revisado formalmente por el comité organizador y valorado por los directores y tutores de tesis, además cada doctorando recibió una evaluación con puntos de mejora por otros estudiantes del programa que han podido incluir antes de la finalización del presente documento