119,090 research outputs found

    Uncovering Hidden Profiles; Managerial Interventions for Discovering Superior Decision Alternatives

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    A common reason for the use of teams in organizations is the idea that each individual can bring a unique perspective to the decision task; however, research shows that teams often fail to surface and use unique information to evaluate decision alternatives. Under a condition known as the hidden profile, each member uniquely possesses a critical clue needed to uncover the superior solution. Failure to share and adequately evaluate this information will result in poor decision quality. In order to mitigate this team decision-making bias, the present study utilizes experimental research to examine the impact of the devil’s advocacy technique on the decision quality of hidden profile teams. Results show that advocacy groups had higher decision qualities than groups under free discussion; however, advocacy teams also had higher levels of anger and lower levels of individual support for their group’s decision. As a result, while these teams selected the best solution, the presence of a devil’s advocate introduces conditions that may hinder the solution’s implementation. Furthermore, similar experiments with advocacy techniques suggest that the positive effect on decision quality found here is reduced in the presence of stronger hidden profiles

    Latent class analysis for segmenting preferences of investment bonds

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    Market segmentation is a key component of conjoint analysis which addresses consumer preference heterogeneity. Members in a segment are assumed to be homogenous in their views and preferences when worthing an item but distinctly heterogenous to members of other segments. Latent class methodology is one of the several conjoint segmentation procedures that overcome the limitations of aggregate analysis and a-priori segmentation. The main benefit of Latent class models is that market segment membership and regression parameters of each derived segment are estimated simultaneously. The Latent class model presented in this paper uses mixtures of multivariate conditional normal distributions to analyze rating data, where the likelihood is maximized using the EM algorithm. The application focuses on customer preferences for investment bonds described by four attributes; currency, coupon rate, redemption term and price. A number of demographic variables are used to generate segments that are accessible and actionable.peer-reviewe

    Should Optimal Designers Worry About Consideration?

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    Consideration set formation using non-compensatory screening rules is a vital component of real purchasing decisions with decades of experimental validation. Marketers have recently developed statistical methods that can estimate quantitative choice models that include consideration set formation via non-compensatory screening rules. But is capturing consideration within models of choice important for design? This paper reports on a simulation study of a vehicle portfolio design when households screen over vehicle body style built to explore the importance of capturing consideration rules for optimal designers. We generate synthetic market share data, fit a variety of discrete choice models to the data, and then optimize design decisions using the estimated models. Model predictive power, design "error", and profitability relative to ideal profits are compared as the amount of market data available increases. We find that even when estimated compensatory models provide relatively good predictive accuracy, they can lead to sub-optimal design decisions when the population uses consideration behavior; convergence of compensatory models to non-compensatory behavior is likely to require unrealistic amounts of data; and modeling heterogeneity in non-compensatory screening is more valuable than heterogeneity in compensatory trade-offs. This supports the claim that designers should carefully identify consideration behaviors before optimizing product portfolios. We also find that higher model predictive power does not necessarily imply better design decisions; that is, different model forms can provide "descriptive" rather than "predictive" information that is useful for design.Comment: 5 figures, 26 pages. In Press at ASME Journal of Mechanical Design (as of 3/17/15
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