Four lectures on probabilistic methods for data science

Methods of high-dimensional probability play a central role in applications for statistics, signal processing theoretical computer science and related fields. These lectures present a sample of particularly useful tools of high-dimensional probability, focusing on the classical and matrix Bernstein's inequality and the uniform matrix deviation inequality. We illustrate these tools with applications for dimension reduction, network analysis, covariance estimation, matrix completion and sparse signal recovery. The lectures are geared towards beginning graduate students who have taken a rigorous course in probability but may not have any experience in data science applications.Comment: Lectures given at 2016 PCMI Graduate Summer School in Mathematics of Data. Some typos, inaccuracies fixe

To steal or not to steal: Firm attributes, legal environment, and valuation

Newly released data on corporate governance and disclosure practices reveal wide within-country variation, with the variation increasing as legal environment gets less investor friendly. This paper examines why firms practice high-quality governance when law does not require it; firm attributes that are related to the quality of governance; how the attributes interact with legal environment; and the relation between firm valuation and corporate governance. A simple model, in which a controlling shareholder trades off private benefits of diversion against costs that vary across countries and time, identifies three relevant firm attributes: investment opportunities, external financing, and ownership structure. Using firm-level governance and transparency data on 859 firms in 27 countries, we find that firms with greater growth opportunities, greater needs for external financing, and more concentrated cash flow rights practice higher-quality governance and disclose more. Moreover, firms that score higher in governance and transparency rankings are valued higher in the stock market. Equally important, all these relations are stronger in countries that are less investor friendly, demonstrating that firms do adapt to poor legal environments to establish efficient governance practices.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39939/3/wp554.pd

Unbiased sampling of network ensembles

Sampling random graphs with given properties is a key step in the analysis of networks, as random ensembles represent basic null models required to identify patterns such as communities and motifs. An important requirement is that the sampling process is unbiased and efficient. The main approaches are microcanonical, i.e. they sample graphs that match the enforced constraints exactly. Unfortunately, when applied to strongly heterogeneous networks (like most real-world examples), the majority of these approaches become biased and/or time-consuming. Moreover, the algorithms defined in the simplest cases, such as binary graphs with given degrees, are not easily generalizable to more complicated ensembles. Here we propose a solution to the problem via the introduction of a "Maximize and Sample" ("Max & Sam" for short) method to correctly sample ensembles of networks where the constraints are `soft', i.e. realized as ensemble averages. Our method is based on exact maximum-entropy distributions and is therefore unbiased by construction, even for strongly heterogeneous networks. It is also more computationally efficient than most microcanonical alternatives. Finally, it works for both binary and weighted networks with a variety of constraints, including combined degree-strength sequences and full reciprocity structure, for which no alternative method exists. Our canonical approach can in principle be turned into an unbiased microcanonical one, via a restriction to the relevant subset. Importantly, the analysis of the fluctuations of the constraints suggests that the microcanonical and canonical versions of all the ensembles considered here are not equivalent. We show various real-world applications and provide a code implementing all our algorithms.Comment: MatLab code available at http://www.mathworks.it/matlabcentral/fileexchange/46912-max-sam-package-zi

Statistical guarantees for the EM algorithm: From population to sample-based analysis

We develop a general framework for proving rigorous guarantees on the performance of the EM algorithm and a variant known as gradient EM. Our analysis is divided into two parts: a treatment of these algorithms at the population level (in the limit of infinite data), followed by results that apply to updates based on a finite set of samples. First, we characterize the domain of attraction of any global maximizer of the population likelihood. This characterization is based on a novel view of the EM updates as a perturbed form of likelihood ascent, or in parallel, of the gradient EM updates as a perturbed form of standard gradient ascent. Leveraging this characterization, we then provide non-asymptotic guarantees on the EM and gradient EM algorithms when applied to a finite set of samples. We develop consequences of our general theory for three canonical examples of incomplete-data problems: mixture of Gaussians, mixture of regressions, and linear regression with covariates missing completely at random. In each case, our theory guarantees that with a suitable initialization, a relatively small number of EM (or gradient EM) steps will yield (with high probability) an estimate that is within statistical error of the MLE. We provide simulations to confirm this theoretically predicted behavior