Component Composition in Business and System Modelling

Bespoke development of large business systems can be couched in terms of the composition of components, which are, put simply, chunks of development work. Design, mapping a specification to an implementation, can also be expressed in terms of components: a refinement comprising an abstract component, a concrete component and a mapping between them. Similarly, system extension is the composition of an existing component, the legacy system, with a new component, the extension. This paper overviews work being done on a UK EPSRC funded research project formulating and formalizing techniques for describing, composing and performing integrity checks on components. Although the paper focuses on the specification and development of information systems, the techniques are equally applicable to the modeling and re-engineering of businesses, where no computer system may be involved

The growth of bilateralism

One of the most notable international economic events over the past 20 years has been the proliferation of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs). Bilateral agreements account for 80 percent of all agreements notified to the WTO, 94 percent of those signed or under negotiation, and currently 100 percent of those at the proposal stage. Some have argued that the growth of bilateralism is attributable to governments having pursued a policy of “competitive liberalization" - implementing bilateral FTAs to offset potential trade diversion caused by FTAs of “third-country-pairs" - but the growth of bilateralism can also be attributed potentially to “tariff complementarity" - the incentive for FTA members to reduce their external tariffs on nonmembers. Guided by new comparative statics from the numerical general equilibrium monopolistic competition model of FTA economic determinants in Baier and Bergstrand (2004), we augment their parsimonious logit (and probit) model of the economic determinants of bilateral FTAs to incorporate theory-motivated indexes to examine the influence of existing memberships on subsequent FTA formations. The model can predict correctly 90 percent of the bilateral FTAs within five years of their formation, while still predicting “No-FTA" correctly in 90 percent of the observations when no FTA exists, using a sample of over 350,000 observations for pairings of 146 countries from 1960-2005. Even imposing the higher correct prediction rate of “No-FTA" of 97 percent in Baier and Bergstrand (2004), the parsimonious model still predicts correctly 75 percent of these rare FTA events; only 3 percent of the observations reflect a country-pair having an FTA in any year. The results suggest that - while evidence supports that “competitive liberalization" is a force for bilateralism - the effect on the likelihood a pair of countries forming an FTA of the pair's own FTAs with other countries (i.e., tariff complementarity) is likely just as important as the effect of third-country-pairs' FTAs (i.e., competitive liberalization) for the growth of bilateralism

Semantics through Pictures

A diagrammatic approach to the semantics of OO modelling notations is proposed. This is based on an innovative and expressive notation dubbed ''constraint diagrams'', which can be used to precisely characterise a range of sophisticated, static constraints on OO models. Other notations, such as those found in UML, can be viewed as projections of constraint diagrams. Work on using constraint diagrams at the core of a 3D modelling notation is also briefly described as a means of similarly providing the semantics of diagrams imposing constraints on dynamic behaviour

Tools for producing formal specifications : a view of current architectures and future directions

During the last decade, one important contribution towards requirements engineering has been the advent of formal specification languages. They offer a well-defined notation that can improve consistency and avoid ambiguity in specifications. However, the process of obtaining formal specifications that are consistent with the requirements is itself a difficult activity. Hence various researchers are developing systems that aid the transition from informal to formal specifications. The kind of problems tackled and the contributions made by these proposed systems are very diverse. This paper brings these studies together to provide a vision for future architectures that aim to aid the transition from informal to formal specifications. The new architecture, which is based on the strengths of existing studies, tackles a number of key issues in requirements engineering such as identifying ambiguities, incompleteness, and reusability. The paper concludes with a discussion of the research problems that need to be addressed in order to realise the proposed architecture

Testing the stability of the benefit transfer function for discrete choice contingent valuation data

We examine the stability of the benefit transfer function across 42 recreational forests in the British Isles. A working definition of reliable function transfer is put forward, and a suitable statistical test is provided. The test is based on the sensitivity of the model log-likelihood to removal of individual forest recreation sites. We apply the proposed methodology on discrete choice contingent valuation data and find that a stable function improves our measure of transfer reliability, but not by much. We conclude that, in empirical studies on transferability, function stability considerations are secondary to the availability and quality of site attribute data. Modellers’ can study the advantages of transfer function stability vis-à-vis the value of additional information on recreation site attributes

Constraint Diagrams: Visualizing Assertions in OO Modelling

Describes a notation, constraint diagrams, which allows pre/post conditions and invariants to be expressed visually, rather than in the notation of mathematical logic. The notation is explored through a small case study (a library system). Some conclusions are drawn about the use of the notation in modelling, and its possible impact on tools and semantics. This report has been split into two and considerable revised and updated: Kent (1997b), Kent (1997c)

ESTIMATION ISSUES IN SINGLE COMMODITY GRAVITY TRADE MODELS

Recently gravity trade models are applied to disaggregated trade data. Here many zeros are characteristic. In the presence of excess zeros usual Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) is still consistent, the variance covariance matrix however is invalid. Correct economic interpretation however requires also the last. So alternative estimators are looked for. STAUB &WINKELMANN (2010) argue that zero-inflated count data models (i.e. zero-inflated Poisson / Negative Binomial Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (ZIPPML / ZINBPML)) are no alternative since under model misspecification these estimators are inconsistent. Yet zeroinflated Poisson Quasi-Likelihood (PQL) is a reliable alternative. It is consistent even under model misspecifications and beyond that robust against unobserved heterogeneity. Another alternative is a log-skew-normal Two-Part Model (G2PM) which generalises the standard lognormal Two-Part Model (2PM). It is insofar advantageous as it adjusts for (negative) skewness and regression coefficients retain usual interpretations as in log-normal models. PQL is useful for multiplicative gravity model estimation and G2PM for log-linear gravity model estimation. Exemplarily the estimators are applied to intra-European piglet trade to assess their empirical performance and applicability for single commodity trade flow analysis. The empirical part favours PQL but G2PM is a reliable alternative for other trade flow analyses. PQL and G2PM should become standard tools for single commodity trade flow analysis.Gravity Model, Excess Zeros, Poisson Quasi Likelihood, Generalised Two Part Model, Gravitationsmodell, Exzess an Nullen, Poisson Quasi Likelihood, Generalisiertes Zwei-Teile Modell, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis, Financial Economics,

Software process modelling as relationships between tasks

Systematic formulation of software process models is currently a challenging problem in software engineering. We present an approach to define models covering the phases of specification, design, implementation and testing of software systems in the component programming framework, taking into account non-functional aspects of software (efficiency, etc.), automatic reusability of implementations in systems and also prototyping techniques involving both specifications and implementations. Our proposal relies on the identification of a catalogue of tasks that appear during these phases which satisfy some relationships concerning their order of execution. A software process model can be defined as the addition of more relationships over these tasks using a simple, modular process language. We have developed also a formal definition of correctness of a software development with respect to a software process model, based on the formulation of models as graphs.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version