Impact of Switching Production to Bioenergy Crops: The Switchgrass Example January 2005

This paper reports the results of a series of simulations that evaluate the general equilibrium effects of substituting crude oil by biomass, specifically switchgrass, in the production of petroleum in the USA. The simulations are inspired by debates over the implications for developing countries if agricultural policies in the USA are changed so that agricultural land is transferred from the production of cereals and other crops to biomass production. The results confirm expectations that such a policy shift would raise cereal and other agricultural prices, due to a general reduction in food production in the USA. However, the reduction in the demand for crude oil in the USA causes terms of trade effects that more than offset any potential benefits for developing countries due to the depreciation of their exchange rates, causing a general decline in economic welfare. Moreover, the declines in welfare are proportionately greater for developing countries due to their small levels of production of the commodities whose prices increase with the change in USA agricultural production

Chinese Manufacturing Performance from Multilateral Perspective: 1980-2004

Based on our research work of 1998, we discuss Chinese manufacturing performance from multilateral perspective in 1980-2004 through performing the comparison of labour productivity between China and its trade partners so as to better understand the problems of RMB exchange rate. We talk about Chinese manufacturing competitiveness through the multilateral comparison of PPPs, relative price levels, labor productivity and ULCs, with the PPPs being standardized according to the base year 1997. All of the results are compared with those in the year 1987. The following findings are presented: in Chinese manufacturing, the various PPPs in the base year 1997 are approximately 3.7 yuan/international $. After the middle 1980s, the relative price turns the lowest in all the five investigation countries. Furthermore, it is still trending downward. ULC is declining albeit the fluctuations. In the 1980s, there is no "catch-up" rapid growth in labor productivity. However, after 1992, it has shown a distinct "catch-up", though with the low level.Multilateral comparison, Manufacturing, International competitiveness

Supply and Demand on Manufacturing Output in OECD countries: econometric models and specification test

The aim of this paper is to analyse the evolution of manufacturing in 11 OECD countries, during the period 1975-92, from two viewpoints: supply and demand. With this purpose we estimate, with a pool of data, two econometric models for explaining industrial production from the above mentioned standpoints and we select the most appropriated using non-nested linear model selection methods.

Foreign Capital Investment into Developing Countries: Some Economic Policy Issues

This paper analyses the role of foreign capital in the economic development of developing countries, particularly South Asian and East Asian countries. Mainstream economists suggest that foreign investment would benefit developing countries by increasing the availability of capital, and through their positive impact over productivity and the general economic wellbeing of the host country. After the Second World War, the rapid economic growth first of Japan and later on of South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan has been widely cited in support of foreign capital. It is true when we look at the records in terms of the removal of poverty, job creation, educational achievements and improving the overall living conditions. I find however, that such discussions have ignored the experiences of developed countries in their early phase of industrialisation. In addition there is a lack of attention to the analysis of the issue of capital inflows in the context of neoliberal economic reforms and financial deregulation. After the global financial crisis in 2008, capital inflows to developing countries have witnessed a sharp decline. Foreign investments are highly sensitive to foreign exchange rate fluctuations. Thus, under such a situation, it is difficult to build a long term industrialisation strategy

Real Exchange Rate in China : A Long-run Perspective

This paper investigates the RMB exchange rate from a long-run viewpoint. Whether Chinas rapid economic growth brought about real exchange rate appreciation between 1975 and 2002 is empirically examined, based on a supply-side model, the BalassaSemuelson Hypothesis (BSH). The same test is conducted on Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India. Our result indicates that the BSH only exists where the industrial structure has been upgraded and the economy has been successfully transformed from an agricultural economy to a manufacturing economy. Interestingly, China, among those where the BSH does not present, appears to be upgrading its industrial and trade structure. We then try to answer the question of why past rapid growth has no significant relationship with the RMB real exchange rate and what factors are underlying the trend of the RMB real exchange rate. We expect an appreciating trend of RMB real exchange rate in the foreseeable future, presuming that Chinas industrial upgrading process continues and the factors pertaining to the BSHs prediction, such as rise of wage rates in both tradables and nontradables, become more significant.RMB real exchange rate, economic growth

Extra-euro area manufacturing import prices and exchange rate pass-through

This paper uses a model of import prices whereby exporters to the euro area set export prices partly as a mark-up on their production costs (i.e., the degree of exchange rate pass-through) and partly in line with euro area producer prices (i.e., pricing-to-market). Using both time series and panel estimation techniques, the econometric results suggest that the pass through of changes in the effective exchange rate of the euro to the price of extra-euro area imports of manufactures is around 50% - 70%, while pricing-to-market has an estimated weight of between 50% - 30%. We also find some evidence of differences across import suppliers, with EU member states who are not part of the euro area assigning a relatively larger weight to pricing-to-market, while euro area imports from the United States seem to be characterised by a relatively higher degree of exchange rate pass-through. JEL Classification: D40, E30, F10, F31

The rise of Hong Kong and Tokyo as international financial centres after 1950

One of the most striking aspects of the 1960s and 1970s was the dramatic increase in the volume of international financial activity and the acceleration of the pace of financial innovation. Accompanying these two linked developments was the geographical dispersion of financial activity and the rise of new international financial centres. This paper examines this process in Hong Kong and Tokyo. Particular emphasis is placed on how the very different regulatory frameworks of these two cities affected their prospects and the different models of their emergence as IFCs. For Tokyo, the case of the Hongkong and Shanghai Bank is used as an example of the nature of foreign bank activity. The paper concludes with some reflections on how the historical record informs our understanding of the performance of these two centres during the 1990s

Reflections on Chinese Political Economy

he aim of this paper is to discuss the reasons for the rapid growth in the Chinese economy over the last three decades. China has been growing fastest in human history, which has an impact on the global economy and also various challenges that the country faces. It is seen as heralding a major shift in the international division of labour through changes in its output and employment pattern. China is described as becoming the “work-shop” of the world as a result of the expansion of its manufacturing production. Its impact on other Asian economies and also on the world economy has the potential to be enormous. Market reforms and opening up of the Chinese economy to trade and foreign capital since the early 1980s, have unleashed entrepreneurial energies. China’s development policies can be best understood if these are looked at from an institutional economic perspective. This article is based on a review of published papers in the field of economic policies, focusing on the debate concerning the respective roles of the state and the market. A wide range of data sources are presented, including statistics compiled and generated by wide range of organisations such as IMF, World Bank and WTO that are non-governmental agencies. Secondary data of this type provides greater potential for addressing the research questions than statistics produced by the national government. This study finds that corporate debt has risen in recent years in China, a large part of these loans having been financed with investment in trust products issued by the banks. In addition, a huge amount of credit has been channelled into the real estate sector, and seems to be heading towards the housing and estate sectors, meaning that most of this is speculative. Investments are financed by credit; which clearly needs to be repaid. If these levels of debt become unsustainable this could pose a major challenge for the Chinese economy