FOREX Microstructure, Invisible Price Determinants,and the Central Bank's Understanding of Exchange Rate Formation

The paper investigates the transmission of macroeconomic factors into the price-setting behavior of a specific dealer in the FX market. This problem is viewed from the perspective of a central banker who observes the price evolution but does not make the market in the home currency. The central banker's task is to explain the forex behavior in terms of conventional economic logic. The analysis is based on a model of a multiple dealer market under two organizations - direct inter-dealer and brokered. The model is constructed in such a way as to reflect the most prominent features of the market for the Czech koruna and, accordingly, to address some issues of key relevance to the Czech National Bank's exchange rate policy. We show that the totality of the exchange rate-relevant fundamental factors influence the market maker's behavior through a single sufficient statistic, his 'marginal' valuation of foreign currency holdings. Under the two studied trading mechanisms, the marginal valuations across market participants determine the equilibrium exchange rate by means of different trade patterns. Specifically, the brokered market is inferior to the direct one in terms of welfare improvement through trade. It takes a higher inter-dealer trade volume in the brokered market to absorb a new price impulse. Therefore, the central banker would do best by monitoring the brokered segment (as the only partially transparent one available), but by conducting interventions in the direct segment, where the desired impact is easier to achieve.forex microstructure, multiple dealership, order flow, pricing schedule.

Two optimistic traditions in the dismal science: rationalism and the "invisible hand"

This paper explores two traditions of optimism in economics. In one of these traditions optimism is based on the comprehension of a spontaneous (and often progressive) order in a decentralised (or market) economy – what I will call the optimism of the “invisible hand”. Against the optimism of the invisible hand stands another optimistic tradition in economics, whereby we might take courage from our ability to do right by society through instructing governments with the keen edge of our most enlightened plans. This tradition is called “constructivist rationalism” here. The paper explores the logic of each tradition and their historical development and applies both to a recent example of policy making in South Africa: government’s fundamental regulatory overhaul of the pharmaceutical industry based on the Medicines Act of 1997, specifically, the decision to implement price controls on medicines.Spontaneous order, Modernism, Planning, Optimism, Information, Uncertainty, Price controls, Institutions, Constitutions, Law and Economics

Economic system dynamics

We provide the reader with a qualitative summary of the main ideas from econophysics and finance theory, starting with a thorough criticism of the standard ideas taught in typical economics textbooks. The emphasis is on the Galilean or physicists' approach to market synamics, as opposed to the standard nonempirical postulatory one.Utility; equilibrium; supply and demand curves; business cycles; market dynamics

The Futility of Utility: how market dynamics marginalize Adam Smith

Econometrics is based on the nonempiric notion of utility. Prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. Utility is usually treated by economists as a price potential, other times utility rates are treated as Lagrangians. Assumptions of integrability of Lagrangians and dynamics are implicitly and uncritically made. In particular, economists assume that price is the gradient of utility in equilibrium, but I show that price as the gradient of utility is an integrability condition for the Hamiltonian dynamics of an optimization problem in econometric control theory. One consequence is that, in a nonintegrable dynamical system, price cannot be expressed as a function of demand or supply variables. Another consequence is that utility maximization does not describe equiulibrium. I point out that the maximization of Gibbs entropy would describe equilibrium, if equilibrium could be achieved, but equilibrium does not describe real markets. To emphasize the inconsistency of the economists' notion of 'equilibrium', I discuss both deterministic and stochastic dynamics of excess demand and observe that Adam Smith's stabilizing hand is not to be found either in deterministic or stochastic dynamical models of markets, nor in the observed motions of asset prices. Evidence for stability of prices of assets in free markets simply has not been found.Comment: 46 pages. accepte

Thermodynamic analogies in economics and finance: instability of markets

Interest in thermodynamic analogies in economics is older than the idea of von Neumann to look for market entropy in liquidity, advice that was not taken in any thermodynamic analogy presented so far in the literature. In this paper we go further and use a standard strategy from trading theory to pinpoint why thermodynamic analogies necessarily fail to describe financial markets, in spite of the presence of liquidity as the underlying basis for market entropy. Market liquidity of frequently traded assets does play the role of the ‘heat bath‘, as anticipated by von Neumann, but we are able to identify the no-arbitrage condition geometrically as an assumption of translational and rotational invariance rather than (as finance theorists would claim) an equilibrium condition. We then use the empirical market distribution to introduce an asset’s entropy and discuss the underlying reason why real financial markets cannot behave thermodynamically: financial markets are unstable, they do not approach statistical equilibrium, nor are there any available topological invariants on which to base a purely formal statistical mechanics. After discussing financial markets, we finally generalize our result by proposing that the idea of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand is a falsifiable proposition: we suggest how to test nonfinancial markets empirically for the stabilizing action of The Invisible Hand.Economics; utility; entropy and disorder; thermodynamics; financial markets; stochastic processes;

The Design of Free-Market Economies in a Post-Neoclassical World

The ‘Washington Consensus’ supporting competitive frames and market solutions in economics and law was shown inadequate to address social problems in non-U.S. settings. So would diversity and dynamics suggest theories in need of adjustment to other realities such as culture, increasing returns and market power. Reform must account for an economics of falling cost, ecological limits and complementarity in our relations. Such shall open new applications for economics and law. In this paper a theory of planning horizons is introduced and then employed to raise some meaningful questions about the neoclassical view with respect to its substitution, decreasing returns and independence assumptions. Suppositions of complementarity, increasing returns and interdependence suggest that competition is inefficient by upholding a myopic culture resistant to change. Growth – though long believed to rise from markets and competitive values – may not derive from these sources. Instead, as civilizations advance, shifting from material wants to higher-order intangible output, they evolve from market tradeoffs (substitution and scarcity) into realms of common need (complementarity and abundance). If so, then neoclassical arguments shall no longer apply to any advanced information economy also restrained by its ecology. Indeed, this paper opens standard theory into a more general framework constructing ‘horizon effects’ into a case for cooperation – as more efficient than competition for all long-term problems of growth. The case is made that competition is keeping us stupid and immature, rewarding a myopic culture at the expense of learning and trust, therefore retarding economic growth instead of encouraging it as believed. The policy implications of horizonal theory are explored, with respect to regulatory aims and economic concerns. Such an approach emphasizes strict constraints against entry barriers, ecological harm, market power abuse and ethical lapses. Social cohesion – not competition – is sought as a means to extend horizons and thereby increase efficiency, equity and ecological health. The overriding importance of horizon effects for regulatory assessment dominates other orthodox standards in economics and law. In sum, much of the reason for the failure of the Washington Consensus stems from myopic concerns central to any horizonal view. Reframing economics along horizonal lines suggests some meaningful insight to how regulations should be designed to keep pace with this approach in economics and law

Food retailing and prices in Slovenia

This paper focuses on agro- food chains and agro- food consumer prices in Slovenia considering its European Union (EU) membership. As the Slovenian agro- food markets were distorted prior to the EU accession with some agro- food prices that were greater than comparable EU prices, the empirical results confirm that with the EU membership Slovenian real agro- food consumer prices have largely downward adjusted. Besides policy changes, internalization of retailing and distribution chains by entries of supermarket s and hypermarket s have had impacts on market structures and rationalization of marketing activities. Supermarket s and hypermarket s are taking over a substantial proportion of retail trade in agro- food products with implications on increasing food chains efficiency by squeezing structures in consumer prices, including for farmers, processors and marketing margins for main agro- food staples. After the greater price adjustment changes that occurred by the EU membership, some stabilizations in agro- food markets are occurring, but at different levels of real consumer and producer prices and marketing margins. This imply that agro- food markets in the new EU member states are becoming much more integrated into internationally competitive markets, where pricing and sales promotion issues and branding are taking important role in market segmentation of agro- food products.Marketing, Segmentation, Price Adjustments, Slovenia., Agribusiness,

Firms, international money and prices: a survey of the literature

Sluggish price adjustments with respect to exchange rate shocks take essentially two forms. Firstly, prices do not adjust completely to neutralize the effects of nominal exchange rate shocks. Secondly, price adjustments after exchange rate shocks only take place in discrete time intervals, in other words they are discontinuous. These two features of price adjustments form our definition of international price rigidities. In this paper we shall present a survey of the empirical and theoretical literature on international price rigidities. We provide the underlying intuition of the theoretical research and present a brief summary of the empirical findings