Forecasting model for crude oil prices based on artificial neural networks

This paper presents short-term forecasting model for crude oil prices based on three layer feedforward neural network. Careful attention was paid on finding the optimal network structure. Moreover, a number of features were tested as an inputs such as crude oil futures prices, dollar index, gold spot price, heating oil spot price and S&P 500 index. The results show that with adequate network design and appropriate selection of the training inputs, feedforward networks are capable of forecasting noisy time series with high accuracy

Soft Computing Techniques for Stock Market Prediction: A Literature Survey

Stock market trading is an unending investment exercise globally. It has potentials to generate high returns on investors’ investment. However, it is characterized by high risk of investment hence, having knowledge and ability to predict stock price or market movement is invaluable to investors in the stock market. Over the years, several soft computing techniques have been used to analyze various stock markets to retrieve knowledge to guide investors on when to buy or sell. This paper surveys over 100 published articles that focus on the application of soft computing techniques to forecast stock markets. The aim of this paper is to present a coherent of information on various soft computing techniques employed for stock market prediction. This research work will enable researchers in this field to know the current trend as well as help to inform their future research efforts. From the surveyed articles, it is evident that researchers have firmly focused on the development of hybrid prediction models and substantial work has also been done on the use of social media data for stock market prediction. It is also revealing that most studies have focused on the prediction of stock prices in emerging market

latent Dirichlet allocation method-based nowcasting approach for prediction of silver price

Silver is a metal that offers significant value to both investors and companies. The purpose of this study is to make an estimation of the price of silver. While making this estimation, it is planned to include the frequency of searches on Google Trends for the words that affect the silver price. Thus, it is aimed to obtain a more accurate estimate. First, using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation method, the keywords to be analyzed in Google Trends were collected from various articles on the Internet. Mining data from Google Trends combined with the information obtained by LDA is the new approach this study took, to predict the price of silver. No study has been found in the literature that has adopted this approach to estimate the price of silver. The estimation was carried out with Random Forest Regression, Gaussian Process Regression, Support Vector Machine, Regression Trees and Artificial Neural Networks methods. In addition, ARIMA, which is one of the traditional methods that is widely used in time series analysis, was also used to benchmark the accuracy of the methodology. The best MSE ratio was obtained as 0,000227131 ± 0.0000235205 by the Regression Trees method. This score indicates that it would be a valid technique to estimate the price of "Silver" by using Google Trends data using the LDA method

The use of computational intelligence techniques for mid-term electricity price forecasting

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Information Systems and Technologies ManagementWe currently live in a world ruled by large amounts of data. Organizations’ success is highly determined by the way they foresee and assess changes occurring in the future. Predictive data analytics is the art of building and using models that create forecasts based on patterns extracted from historical data. So, it is a process of making projections about a specific event which the outcome is still unknown in the present. One of the main applications is price prediction (Kelleher, Namee, & D’Arcy, 2015). Price prediction can be applied in innumerous types of business, including the energy sector. Additionally, Big Data has created opportunities for development of new energy services and bears a promise of better energy management and conservation (Grolinger, L’Heureux, Capretz, & Seewald, 2016). Whenever prediction deals with time-series data, it can be designated as forecasting. The electricity spot prices (ESP) represent the result of the market bidding prices outcome, in the electric wholesale market. Predicting these prices is an important and impactful task for market participants, like producers, consumers and retailers, since the principal objective for such players is to achieve the lowest cost in comparison with competitors. ESP play a huge role in energy market’s decision making. It is important both for developing proper bidding strategies as well as for making conscient and sustainable investment decisions (Keynia & Heydari, 2019). Additionally, it impacts the decision of the technologies to use, for example, choosing between renewable energy generators or classic gas turbines. Furthermore, the topic of electricity prices forecasting is extremely relevant for both developed and developing countries. Developed countries search for their economic prospect’s improvement. Electric energy efficiency is a crucial metric for that improvement. Electric energy efficiency can decrease the electricity prices thanks to the reduction of consumption, thus decreasing the need of having new expensive power generation and diminishing the pressure on energy resources. Therefore, ESP behavior is an important factor in their economy. Regarding developing economies, which have faced problems to take the populations out of poverty, the electricity sector restructuring has been fundamental for helping increase the levels of economic development (Ebrahimian, Barmayoon, Mohammadi, & Ghadimi, 2018)

Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning in Finance: A literature review

In the 2020s, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been increasingly becoming a dominant technology, and thanks to new computer technologies, Machine Learning (ML) has also experienced remarkable growth in recent years; however, Artificial Intelligence (AI) needs notable data scientist and engineers’ innovation to evolve. Hence, in this paper, we aim to infer the intellectual development of AI and ML in finance research, adopting a scoping review combined with an embedded review to pursue and scrutinize the services of these concepts. For a technical literature review, we goose-step the five stages of the scoping review methodology along with Donthu et al.’s (2021) bibliometric review method. This article highlights the trends in AI and ML applications (from 1989 to 2022) in the financial field of both developed and emerging countries. The main purpose is to emphasize the minutiae of several types of research that elucidate the employment of AI and ML in finance. The findings of our study are summarized and developed into seven fields: (1) Portfolio Management and Robo-Advisory, (2) Risk Management and Financial Distress (3), Financial Fraud Detection and Anti-money laundering, (4) Sentiment Analysis and Investor Behaviour, (5) Algorithmic Stock Market Prediction and High-frequency Trading, (6) Data Protection and Cybersecurity, (7) Big Data Analytics, Blockchain, FinTech. Further, we demonstrate in each field, how research in AI and ML enhances the current financial sector, as well as their contribution in terms of possibilities and solutions for myriad financial institutions and organizations. We conclude with a global map review of 110 documents per the seven fields of AI and ML application.   Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Finance, Scoping review, Casablanca Exchange Market. JEL Classification: C80 Paper type: Theoretical ResearchIn the 2020s, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been increasingly becoming a dominant technology, and thanks to new computer technologies, Machine Learning (ML) has also experienced remarkable growth in recent years; however, Artificial Intelligence (AI) needs notable data scientist and engineers’ innovation to evolve. Hence, in this paper, we aim to infer the intellectual development of AI and ML in finance research, adopting a scoping review combined with an embedded review to pursue and scrutinize the services of these concepts. For a technical literature review, we goose-step the five stages of the scoping review methodology along with Donthu et al.’s (2021) bibliometric review method. This article highlights the trends in AI and ML applications (from 1989 to 2022) in the financial field of both developed and emerging countries. The main purpose is to emphasize the minutiae of several types of research that elucidate the employment of AI and ML in finance. The findings of our study are summarized and developed into seven fields: (1) Portfolio Management and Robo-Advisory, (2) Risk Management and Financial Distress (3), Financial Fraud Detection and Anti-money laundering, (4) Sentiment Analysis and Investor Behaviour, (5) Algorithmic Stock Market Prediction and High-frequency Trading, (6) Data Protection and Cybersecurity, (7) Big Data Analytics, Blockchain, FinTech. Further, we demonstrate in each field, how research in AI and ML enhances the current financial sector, as well as their contribution in terms of possibilities and solutions for myriad financial institutions and organizations. We conclude with a global map review of 110 documents per the seven fields of AI and ML application.   Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Finance, Scoping review, Casablanca Exchange Market. JEL Classification: C80 Paper type: Theoretical Researc

Soft Computing Approaches to Stock Forecasting: A Survey

Soft computing techniques has been effectively applied in business, engineering, medical domain to solve problems in the past decade. However, this paper focuses on censoring the application of soft computing techniques for stock market prediction in the last decade (2010 - todate). Over a hundred published articles on stock price prediction were reviewed. The survey is done by grouping these published articles into: the stock market surveyed, input variable choices, summary of modelling technique applied, comparative studies, and summary of performance measures. This survey aptly shows that soft computing techniques are widely used and it has demonstrated widely acceptability to accurately use for predicting stock price and stock index behavior worldwide

Four essays on quantitative economics applications to volatility analysis in Emerging Markets and renewable energy projects

[ES]Las decisiones financieras se pueden dividir en decisiones de inversión y decisiones de financiación. En lo que respecta a las decisiones de inversión, la incertidumbre acerca de la dinámica futura de las variables económicas y de las financieras tiene un rol fundamental. Eso, se explica porque los retornos esperados por las empresas y por los inversionistas se pueden ver afectados por los movimientos adversos en los mercados financieros y por los altos niveles de volatilidad. Como consecuencia, resulta crucial realizar un adecuado análisis y modelación de la volatilidad para el proceso de toma de decisiones financieras, por parte de las empresas y el diseño de estrategias de inversión y cobertura por parte de los inversionistas. En este sentido, el estudio de la volatilidad se ha convertido en uno de los temas más interesantes de la investigación en finanzas. Lo anterior ha cobrado mayor relevancia en los últimos años, teniendo en cuenta el escenario de alta volatilidad e incertidumbre que afrontan los mercados a nivel global. Este documento tiene como objetivo abordar cuatro cuestiones centrales, las cuales están relacionadas con la volatilidad financiera como campo de investigación. Esas cuestiones son, la transmisión y spillovers de volatilidad en mercados emergentes, la calibración de la superficie de volatilidad para proyectos de energía renovable y el pronóstico de los rendimientos de activos energéticos y spillovers de volatilidad a través de técnicas de machine learning. En el primer capítulo del documento, se examinan los efectos de transmisión de volatilidad entre un índice de energía y un índice financiero para los Mercados Emergentes. En consecuencia, mediante el uso de un modelo DCC, se muestra que los efectos de transmisión de volatilidad entre los índices empleados para la crisis subprime y la crisis del COVID-19 fueron diferentes. Lo anteriormente dicho, considerando que la primera crisis se originó en el sector financiero y luego se extendió al resto de la economía, mientras que la segunda se originó en el sector real y posteriormente afectó al resto de la economía. Teniendo en cuenta que la relación entre la volatilidad de los mercados es cambiante en el tiempo, en el segundo capítulo se llevó a cabo un análisis dinámico de los spillovers de volatilidad entre materias primas, Bitcoin y un índice de Mercados Emergentes. Así, empleando la metodología propuesta por Diebold y Yilmaz (2012), se concluyó que los efectos de los spillovers de volatilidad entre los activos analizados no son constantes en dirección e intensidad a través del tiempo. En particular, para períodos de crisis como el de la pandemia del COVID-19, hay reversiones en la dirección de los spillovers de volatilidad debido al sector en el que se originó la crisis. Además, en este capítulo se explota la naturaleza dinámica de los spillovers de volatilidad. Por lo tanto, se planteó que el índice de spillovers de volatilidad propuesto por Diebold y Yilmaz puede ser usado como una medida para pronosticar periodos de alta turbulencia. Lo anterior se desarrolló a través de modelos econométricos tradicionales y de técnicas de machine learning. En el tercer capítulo del documento, se propone un modelo que predice los retornos de los precios del carbono y del petróleo. En este sentido, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, el cual combina las proyecciones obtenidas a partir de diferentes técnicas de machine learning y modelos econométricos tradicionales, obteniéndose resultados los cuales muestran las ventajas de emplear modelos híbridos que incorporan técnicas de machine learning, exclusivamente, para pronosticar variables financieras. Finalmente, en el capítulo cuatro, se presenta una metodología para la estimación de la volatilidad en la valoración de proyectos de energías renovables mediante opciones reales. En esta metodología, la cual es una extensión del enfoque de volatilidad implícita empleada para las opciones financieras, la volatilidad de un proyecto es la volatilidad implícita obtenida a partir de la superficie de la volatilidad de empresas comparables, según una determinada fecha de valoración y dada la relación deuda-capital de un proyecto de energía renovable. En este análisis, se utilizó el modelo estocástico 'alfa-beta-rho' para calibrar la superficie de la volatilidad para la valoración mediante opciones reales. Por último, al final del documento se presentan las conclusiones derivadas de los capítulos mencionados, así como algunas recomendaciones para las futuras investigaciones. [EN]Financial decisions can be divided in investment and financing decisions. Concerning investment decisions, the uncertainty about the future dynamics of financial and economic variables has a central role, considering that the returns expected by firms and investors can be affected by the adverse movements in financial markets and their high volatility. In consequence, the adequate volatility analysis and modeling is crucial for the firm’s financial decision-making process and the design of investing and hedging strategies by investors. In this regard, the study of volatility has become one of the most interesting topics in finance research. The foregoing has become more relevant in recent years considering the scenario of high volatility and uncertainty faced by markets globally. This document aims to address four central issues related to financial volatility as a research area. These are, volatility transmission and spillovers in Emerging Markets, the calibration of the volatility surface for renewable energy projects and the forecast of energy assets returns and volatility spillovers through machine learning techniques. In the first chapter of the document, the volatility transmission effects between an energy index and a financial index for Emerging Markets are examined. Then, by using a DCC model, it is shown that the volatility transmission effects between the employed indices for the subprime crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were different. This, considering that the former crisis originated in the financial sector and spread to the rest of the economy, while the second originated in the real sector and trasmitted to the rest of the economy posteriorly. Considering that the relationship between markets volatility is time-varying, in the second chapter, a dynamic analysis of volatility spillovers between commodities, Bitcoin and an Emerging Markets index is developed. Employing the methodology proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), it is concluded that the volatility spillovers effects between the analyzed assets is not constant in direction and intensity over time. In particular, for periods of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemics, there are reversals in the direction of volatility spillovers due to the sector in which the crises originate. In addition, in this chapter the dynamic nature of volatility spillovers is exploited. Hence, the volatility spillover index proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz is forecasted to be used as a measure to anticipate high turbulence periods. This, through both traditional econometric models and machine learning techniques. In the third chapter, a model for the prediction of carbon and oil prices is proposed. In this sense, a hybrid model that ensembles the forecasts obtained from different machine learning techniques and traditional econometric models is developed, obtaining results that show the advantages of employing hybrid models which combine machine learning techniques, exclusively, to forecast financial variables. In Chapter four, a methodology for the estimation of volatility in renewable energy projects valuation through real options is presented. In this methodology, which is an extension of the implied volatility approach employed for financial options, the volatility of the project is the implied volatility obtained from the volatility surface of comparable firms for a certain valuation date and given debt-to-equity relation of a renewable energy project. In this analysis, the stochastic ‘alpha-beta-rho’ model is utilized to calibrate the volatility surface for real option valuation purposes. Finally, the conclusions derived from the mentioned chapters are presented at the end of the document as well as some recommendations for future research