"Thermometers" of Speculative Frenzy

Establishing unambiguously the existence of speculative bubbles is an on-going controversy complicated by the need of defining a model of fundamental prices. Here, we present a novel empirical method which bypasses all the difficulties of the previous approaches by monitoring external indicators of an anomalously growing interest in the public at times of bubbles. From the definition of a bubble as a self-fulfilling reinforcing price change, we identify indicators of a possible self-reinforcing imitation between agents in the market. We show that during the build-up phase of a bubble, there is a growing interest in the public for the commodity in question, whether it consists in stocks, diamonds or coins. That interest can be estimated through different indicators: increase in the number of books published on the topic, increase in the subscriptions to specialized journals. Moreover, the well-known empirical rule according to which the volume of sales is growing during a bull market finds a natural interpretation in this framework: sales increases in fact reveal and pinpoint the progress of the bubble's diffusion throughout society. We also present a simple model of rational expectation which maps exactly onto the Ising model on a random graph. The indicators are then interpreted as ``thermometers'', measuring the balance between idiosyncratic information (noise temperature) and imitation (coupling) strength. In this context, bubbles are interpreted as low or critical temperature phases, where the imitation strength carries market prices up essentially independently of fundamentals. Contrary to the naive conception of a bubble and a crash as times of disorder, on the contrary, we show that bubbles and crashes are times where the concensus is too strong.Comment: 15 pages + 10 figure

PISA 2012: series on the learning environment

The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) is an international study that is administered on a three-yearly basis. The study assesses how well 15 year-old are prepared to meet the challenges of today’s society. PISA assesses three key areas of knowledge and skills: reading literacy, mathematical literacy and scientific literacy, and has a focus on one these learning areas in each administration. In the 2012 administration of PISA, over half a million 15-year-olds from 65 countries or economies took part, including all of the OECD member countries. Vol I In this report factors relating to opportunities students have to learn different mathematical concepts are brought together to provide a picture of the learning environment and how it relates to maths achievement in the PISA 2012 assessment. First of all, student contact with maths is examined through factors such as time spent learning maths, and whether additional maths classes and extra-curricular maths activities are offered at school. Next, student self-reports of familiarity with 13 mathematical content areas are presented. Finally, information is provided of the relative opportunities that New Zealand students have to learn formal maths problems. Vol II In this report the way in which mathematical content is delivered in classrooms is examined. First, some information on maths teaching staff is presented, including teacher qualifications, participation in professional development with a focus on maths, maths teacher-student ratio, and principals’ reports of teacher shortage and how that relates to maths achievement. Secondly, principals’ reports of lack in physical infrastructure and educational resources in their school are examined. Thirdly, principals’ reports of teacher factors that can hinder student learning are presented. Next, students’ reports of teacher-student relationships at school and four teaching practices in maths lessons (cognitive activation, student-orientation, teacher-directed instruction, and formative assessment ) are explored. Finally, this volume examines school principals’ reports of ability grouping practices within and between maths classes. Vol III In this report student behaviour, behaviour demonstrated by 15-year-olds that hinders learning, is put under scrutiny. Students\u27 reports of the disciplinary climate in maths lessons are presented together with principals\u27 reports of student factors that hindered learning at school, and how they relate to maths achievement. Finally student self reported measures of arriving late for school, and skipping class or a day of school are examined

Introduction: Double-crested Cormorants of the Great Lakes – St. Lawrence River Basin: Recent Studies, Movements and Responses to Management Actions

This paper introduces the second Special Publication of the Waterbird Society to address the biology and management of the Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritius) in North America. Since the late 1960s and early 1970s, when the species was at very low population levels, the Double-crested Cormorant has rebounded to its greatest population level in over 100 years. Such a significant increase has resulted in changes in community structure, and new stressors, in many aquatic ecosystems. Both Special Publications (1995 and 2013) have been focused on the biology and management of the species. The first volume dealt mainly with population growth and the resulting, immediate management issues. In the current volume, studies address the longer term situation, the implementation of two U.S. depredation orders and new research directions identified in the first Special Publication and in subsequent smaller cormorant symposia. Seventeen papers which comprise this volume are presented under six headings: introduction, impacts to natural resources, population dynamics, evaluation of control efforts, assessing fish consumption and bioenergetics, migration ecology and local and seasonal movements, and summary overview and future information needs. A second Special Publication on Double-crested Cormorants gives us an opportunity to assess how well cormorant biologists have addressed and answered questions we posed to ourselves 15 years earlier; it also provides us with a vision for the next 18 years

TOWARDS A EUROPEAN INFORMATION DRIVING LICENCE: THE ENIL PROJECT

Taken literally, the concept of "Information Society" means considering information as the fulcrum of everyday activities and implies attention to a number of factors, including: the volume of information available today; the variety of information content, information formats and vehicles of distribution; the prevalence of information-intensive activities, strictly based on lifelong learning attitudes; the massive fruition of information, i.e. information as a mass phenomenon.The combined effect of these factors results in a diffuse disorientation with respect to the current formidable supply of information. Therefore, a minimum set of competencies is widely required in order to improve the ability to dominate the multiform (print, electronic, local, online, networked, multimedia) universe of information available. Mastering this set of competencies is what is here assumed to be the purpose of information literacy (hereafter IL).Further, there is a great gap between USA-Australian and European approaches to IL. In fact, while in the USA and Australia IL is a national policy issue, in Europe it has been developed only in the form of episodic and fragmented initiatives.In view of the above, the EnIL (European network on Information Literacy) project started in 2001 by initiative of the Institute for Studies on Scientific Research and Documentation of the Italian National Research Council with the following aims: Establish a network of excellence made up by European IL experts (the EnIL network); Produce a report on the state of the art of IL in each of the EU-15 Member States; Agree among the EnIL members a common research agenda and the condition under which share methodologies, tools and results gained by the single Countries; Evaluate the feasibility of a European Information Driving Licence (EiDL), analogously to the European Computer Driving License; Start a pilot project of EiDL in Italy.Information literacy, European Union, lifelong learning, European network on Information Literacy (EnIL project)

Characteristics of Adult Severe Refractory Asthma in Korea Analyzed From the Severe Asthma Registry

Purpose: Although mild to moderate asthma is much more common, the morbidity and mortality of severe asthma are much higher. This study was performed to identify and analyze the clinical characteristics of severe asthma in Korea. Methods: We registered patients with severe refractory asthma into the Severe Asthma Registry supported by the Severe Asthma Work Group of the Korean Academy of Asthma, Allergy and Clinical Immunology. Patients were enrolled since 2010 from the 15 university hospitals nationwide in Korea. Severe asthma was defined according to modified European Respiratory Society/American Thoracic Society criteria. Information on demographics, medical history, pulmonary function tests and skin prick tests was collected; the clinical characteristics of severe asthmatics were analyzed from the collected data. Results: A total of 489 patients were enrolled with a mean age of 62.3; 45% are male. Sixty percent of patients received Global Initiative for Asthma step 4 treatment, and 30% received step 5 treatment. The most common comorbidities were allergic rhinitis (58.7%). Aspirin hypersensitivity was observed in 14.0%. Approximately half (53.9%) are non-smokers. Atopy was proven in 38.5% of the patients. Regarding asthma medications, inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting β-agonist combination inhalers were most commonly prescribed (96.5%), followed by leukotriene antagonists (71.0%). A recombinant anti-immunoglobulin E monoclonal antibody (omalizumab) has been used in 1.8% of the patients. The mean forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and FEV1/FVC were 78.7%, 67.5% and 67.9% of predicted values, respectively. The mean Asthma Control Test and quality of life questionnaire scores were 16.5 out of 25 and 59.5 out of 85, respectively. Conclusions: The baseline characteristics of severe asthma patients in the Korea Severe Asthma Registry were analyzed and reported for the first time. With this cohort, further prospective studies should be performed to search for ways to improve management of severe refractory asthma.ope

Effect of Exercise in Preventing Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in Racially Diverse Overweight Pregnant Women

Title: Effect of Exercise in Preventing Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in Racially Diverse Overweight Pregnant Women Authors: Barry Francis1, Ami Eho1, Bre McDonald1, Sadaf Dabeer, Ph.D.2, Juliana Meireles, Ph.D.2, Katherine H. Ingram, Ph.D.(mentor)2 Institution: 1Department of Molecular and Cellular Biology, 2Department of Exercise Science and Sport Management, Kennesaw State University Introduction: With the increase in unhealthy lifestyles in the Western world, obesity and other chronic diseases plague our current society. Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) remains a major complication affecting 7-10% of pregnancies. The fetus is affected by GDM which increases chances of having diabetes in their lifetime. Racial and ethnic minority populations especially American Indians and African Americans are at a higher risk of GDM. Some studies postulated that this might be due to the prevalence of obesity in these groups. Exercise has been shown to lower the risk for GDM in overweight pregnant women. Studies reviewed the necessity of exercise pre-pregnancy and during pregnancy, but the correct amount of exercise to see these effects in racially- diverse women remains to be determined. Purpose: The aim of this study is to conduct a systematic review which evaluates the specific exercise volume required to prevent GDM in women of different races who are also overweight. Methods: PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and the Kennesaw State University library system will be searched to identify systematic reviews and randomized trials published until 2021. Key terms to be utilized include: pregnancy, GDM, at-risk, obesity, race, and exercise/physical activity. Using these terms but omitting “obesity,” the number of sources available on PubMed narrowed to 21 sources. Of these 21 sources, based on the criteria deemed necessary for the review, different races represented, at-risk women with GDM, and the volume of exercise deemed necessary, only five of those 21 articles matched the necessary guidelines. When key terms overweight, pregnant women, exercise, GDM were entered along with the Boolean operators with terms AND, OR in PubMed, excluding the focus on diet, 78 results were obtained. With the filters of English for language and human for species checked, 10 were deemed fit. Including the five sources from the search focusing on race and the 10 sources found from an obesity focus, 15 total sources were collected. Conclusion: The findings from this study will provide more information about specific exercise volume that should be recommended as part of prenatal care to pregnant women based on their racial differences in order to decrease the prevalence of GDM in these groups

Do companies reduce CSR disclosures during recessions?

Purpose: We investigate trends in prevalence and volume of CSR disclosure by the top 50 New Zealand listed companies from 2005 to 2010, i.e. from before until after the initial impact of the global financial crisis (GFC). Design/methodology/approach: We examine the annual reports of each of the companies between the years 2005 and 2010, as well as company websites for standalone CSR reports. We count the number of pages of any social and environmental disclosures in annual reports and in standalone reports for each year and use this data to assess whether overall trends can be discerned. We compare CSR disclosure trends with changes in business confidence. Findings: Our results reveal a general upward trend in CSR disclosures over the six-year period. The number of companies disclosing in their annual reports and standalone reports increased from 2005 to 2007. However, during the initial drop in business confidence in 2008 (brought on by the GFC), CSR disclosures in annual reports and standalone reports remained consistent overall with 2007. Companies operating within industries more prone to public scrutiny or those industries more sensitive to the social and environmental impacts of corporate operations actually increased their CSR disclosures, whereas other companies decreased their disclosure for an overall constant level. The upward trend resumed in 2009, but when business confidence again suffered in 2010, overall annual report CSR disclosures decreased, whereas overall standalone report disclosure continued the upward trend. In sum, during times of reduced business confidence, companies in non-environmentally-sensitive and non-socially-sensitive industries appear to buck the overall trend towards increased CSR disclosures. Originality: Many studies conclude that there is an upward trend in CSR disclosures over time. Other studies examine the impact of particular events on disclosure. However, we are not aware of any study that examines the impact of the initial phase of the GFC on the overall upward trend in CSR disclosures, i.e. whether companies subjugate CSR in favour of more pressing business priorities during times of reduced business confidence

Bibliometric studies on single journals: a review

This paper covers a total of 82 bibliometric studies on single journals (62 studies cover unique titles) published between 1998 and 2008 grouped into the following fields; Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences (12 items); Medical and Health Sciences (19 items); Sciences and Technology (30 items) and Library and Information Sciences (21 items). Under each field the studies are described in accordance to their geographical location in the following order, United Kingdom, United States and Americana, Europe, Asia (India, Africa and Malaysia). For each study, elements described are (a) the journal’s publication characteristics and indexation information; (b) the objectives; (c) the sampling and bibliometric measures used; and (d) the results observed. A list of journal titles studied is appended. The results show that (a)bibliometric studies cover journals in various fields; (b) there are several revisits of some journals which are considered important; (c) Asian and African contributions is high (41.4 of total studies; 43.5 covering unique titles), United States (30.4 of total; 31.0 on unique titles), Europe (18.2 of total and 14.5 on unique titles) and the United Kingdom (10 of total and 11 on unique titles); (d) a high number of bibliometrists are Indians and as such coverage of Indian journals is high (28 of total studies; 30.6 of unique titles); and (e) the quality of the journals and their importance either nationally or internationally are inferred from their indexation status