Changes in NDVI and human population in protected areas on the Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the Tibetan Plateau’s role in environmental change has gained increasing scientific attention in light of warming and changes in landmanagement. We examine changes in greenness over the Tibetan Plateau using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Study (GIMMS3g) to identify significant changes over the entire plateau, six ecoregions, and protected areas based on a multiyear time series of July imagery from 1982 to 2015. We also test whether there have been changes in human populations in protected areas. There has been relatively little change in mean NDVI over the Tibetan Plateau or ecoregions, however, there were significant changes at the pixel level. There are sixty-nine protected areas on the Tibetan Plateau; sixtytwo protected areas had no significant change in mean NDVI and seven protected areas experienced a significant increase in NDVI. There has been an increase in population within protected areas from 2000 to 2015; however, mean populations significantly increased in two protected areas and significantly decreased in four protected areas. Results suggest a slow greening of the Tibetan Plateau, ecoregions, and protected areas, with a more rapid greening in northern Tibet at the pixel level. Most protected areas are experiencing minor changes in NDVI independent of human population

Identifying the Relative Contributions of Climate and Grazing to Both Direction and Magnitude of Alpine Grassland Productivity Dynamics from 1993 to 2011 on the Northern Tibetan Plateau

Alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau are claimed to be sensitive and vulnerable to climate change and human disturbance. The mechanism, direction and magnitude of climatic and anthropogenic influences on net primary productivity (NPP) of various alpine pastures remain under debate. Here, we simulated the potential productivity (with only climate variables being considered as drivers; NPPP) and actual productivity (based on remote sensing dataset including both climate and anthropogenic drivers; NPPA) from 1993 to 2011. We denoted the difference between NPPP and NPPA as NPPpc to quantify how much forage can be potentially consumed by livestock. The actually consumed productivity (NPPac) by livestock were estimated based on meat production and daily forage consumption per standardized sheep unit. We hypothesized that the gap between NPPpc and NPPac (NPPgap) indicates the direction of vegetation dynamics, restoration or degradation. Our results show that growing season precipitation rather than temperature significantly relates with NPPgap, although warming was significant for the entire study region while precipitation only significantly increased in the northeastern places. On the Northern Tibetan Plateau, 69.05% of available alpine pastures showed a restoration trend with positive NPPgap, and for 58.74% of alpine pastures, stocking rate is suggested to increase in the future because of the positive mean NPPgap and its increasing trend. This study provides a potential framework for regionally regulating grazing management with aims to restore the degraded pastures and sustainable management of the healthy pastures on the Tibetan Plateau. View Full-Tex

Climate-Driven Plant Response and Resilience on the Tibetan Plateau in Space and Time: A Review

Climate change variation on a small scale may alter the underlying processes determining a pattern operating at large scale and vice versa. Plant response to climate change on individual plant levels on a fine scale tends to change population structure, community composition and ecosystem processes and functioning. Therefore, we reviewed the literature on plant response and resilience to climate change in space and time at different scales on the Tibetan Plateau. We report that spatiotemporal variation in temperature and precipitation dynamics drives the vegetation and ecosystem function on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), following the water–energy dynamics hypothesis. Increasing temperature with respect to time increased the net primary productivity (NPP) on most parts of the Tibetan Plateau, but the productivity dynamics on some parts were constrained by 0.3 °C decade−1 rising temperature. Moreover, we report that accelerating studies on plant community assemblage and their contribution to ecosystem functioning may help to identify the community response and resilience to climate extremes. Furthermore, records on species losses help to build the sustainable management plan for the entire Tibetan Plateau. We recommend that incorporating long-term temporal data with multiple factor analyses will be helpful to formulate the appropriate measures for a healthy ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau.publishedVersio

ECOLOGICAL STOICHIOMETRY IN WATERSHEDS: FROM LAND TO WATER IN THE QINGHAI LAKE BASIN

We examined the influences of grassland status (as indexed by normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) on carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) concentrations and stoichiometry, nutrient limitation, as well as microbial community structure in soil, stream, and/or lake ecosystems in the Qinghai Lake watershed, where grassland is the dominant landcover and more than half of the grassland is degraded. Chapter 2 showed that grassland degradation decreased C and N concentrations as well as C:N, C:P, and N:P ratios in soil. Moreover, grassland degradation decreased C, N, and P concentrations and influenced C:N and N:P ratios in soil microbial biomass. Soil microorganisms exhibited strong homeostatic behavior while variations of microbial biomass C:N and N:P ratios suggest changes in microbial activities and community structure. The soil became relatively more P rich and thus N limitation is anticipated to be more apparent with grassland degradation. Chapter 3 provided a picture of potentially differential influences of grassland degradation on DOC, TN, and TP in streamwater. The imbalances of C:N:P stoichiometry between streamwater and biofilms and the non-isometric relationships between biofilm C and P suggest that stream biofilms might be limited by P and sensitive to P variation. Chapter 4 indicated that grassland degradation has the potential to differentially influence the nutrients delivered to streams with substantial increases in P but decreases in N and N:P, alleviating P limitation of stream periphyton and, ultimately, stimulating P-limited phytoplankton growth in the lake. Chapter 5 revealed that grassland degradation shifted bacterial diversity and communities in soil, likely by changing soil moisture, soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus. Chapter 6 showed that the variation of bacterial communities in stream biofilms was closely associated with rate of change in NDVI, pH, conductivity, as well as C, N, P contents and C:N ratio in biofilms per se. Alpha diversity was positively correlated with C, N, and P in biofilms. Abundant subcommunities of microbes were more strongly associated with environmental variables. Overall, my dissertation revealed strong impacts of grassland degradation on several aspects of nutrient dynamics and limitation as well as on microbial communities in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Qinghai Lake watershed

Linkages between Atmospheric Circulation, Weather, Climate, Land Cover and Social Dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an important landmass that plays a significant role in both regional and global climates. In recent decades, the TP has undergone significant changes due to climate and human activities. Since the 1980s anthropogenic activities, such as the stocking of livestock, land cover change, permafrost degradation, urbanization, highway construction, deforestation and desertification, and unsustainable land management practices, have greatly increased over the TP. As a result, grasslands have undergone rapid degradation and have altered the land surface which in turn has altered the exchange of heat and moisture properties between land and the atmosphere. But gaps still exist in our knowledge of land-atmosphere interactions in the TP and their impacts on weather and climate around the TP, making it difficult to understand the complete energy and water cycles over the region. Moreover, human, and ecological systems are interlinked, and the drivers of change include biophysical, economic, political, social, and cultural elements that operate at different temporal and spatial scales. Current studies do not holistically reflect the complex social-ecological dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau. To increase our understanding of this coupled human-natural system, there is a need for an integrated approach to rendering visible the deep interconnections between the biophysical and social systems of the TP. There is a need for an integrative framework to study the impacts of sedentary and individualized production systems on the health and livelihoods of local communities in the context of land degradation and climate change. To do so, there is a need to understand better the spatial variability and landscape patterns in grassland degradation across the TP. Therefore, the main goal of this dissertation is to contribute to our understanding of the changes over the land surface and how these changes impact the plateau\u27s weather, climate, and social dynamics. This dissertation is structured as three interrelated manuscripts, which each explore specific research questions relating to this larger goal. These manuscripts constitute the three primary papers of this dissertation. The first paper documents the significant association of surface energy flux with vegetation cover, as measured by satellite based AVHRR GIMMS3g normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, during the early growing season of May in the western region of the Tibetan Plateau. In addition, a 1°K increase in the temperature at the 500 hPa level was observed. Based on the identified positive effects of vegetation on the temperature associated with decreased NDVI in the western region of the Tibetan Plateau, I propose a positive energy process for land-atmosphere associations. In the second paper, an increase in Landsat-derived NDVI, i.e., a greening, is identified within the TP, especially during 1990 to 2018 and 2000 to 2018 time periods. Larger median growing season NDVI change values were observed for the Southeast Tibet shrublands and meadows and Tibetan Plateau Alpine Shrublands and Meadows grassland regions, in comparison to the other three regions studied. Land degradation is prominent in the lower and intermediate hillslope positions in comparison to the higher relative topographic positions, and change is more pronounced in the eastern Southeast Tibet shrublands and meadows and Tibetan Plateau Alpine Shrublands and Meadows grasslands. Geomorphons were found to be an effective spatial unit for analysis of hillslope change patterns. Through the extensive literature review presented in third paper, this dissertation recommends using critical physical geography (CPG) to study environmental and social issues in the TP. The conceptual model proposed provides a framework for analysis of the dominant controls, feedback, and interactions between natural, human, socioeconomic, and governance activities, allowing researchers to untangle climate change, land degradation, and vulnerability in the Tibetan Plateau. CPG will further help improve our understanding of the exposure of local people to climate and socio-economic and political change and help policy makers devise appropriate strategies to combat future grassland degradation and to improve the lives and strengthen livelihoods of the inhabitants of the TP

Climate Variability Rather Than Livestock Grazing Dominates Changes in Alpine Grassland Productivity Across Tibet

Alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau, being vulnerable to environmental and anthropogenic changes, have experienced dramatic climate change and intensive livestock grazing during the last half-century. Climate change, coupled with grazing activities, has profoundly altered alpine grassland function and structure and resulted in vast grassland degradation. To restore degraded grasslands, the Central Government of China has implemented the Ecological Security Barrier Protection and Construction Project since 2008 across the Tibetan Autonomous Region. However, the relative effect of climate change and grazing activities on the variation in alpine grassland productivity is still under debate. In this study, we quantified how aboveground net primary production (ANPP) varied before (2000-2008) and after (2009-2017) starting the project across different alpine grasslands and how much variance in ANPP could be attributed to climate change and grazing disturbance, in terms of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and grazing intensity. Our results revealed that Tibet's climate got warmer and wetter, and grazing intensity decreased after starting the project. Mean ANPP increased at approximately 81% of the sites, on average from 27.0 g C m(-2) during 2000-2008 to 28.4 g C m(-2) during 2009-2017. The ANPP positively correlated with annual temperature and precipitation, but negatively with grazing intensity for both periods. Random forest modeling indicated that grazing intensity (14.5%) had a much lower influence in controlling the dynamics of grassland ANPP than precipitation (29.0%), suggesting that precipitation variability was the key factor for alpine grassland ANPP increase across Tibet

Past, present, and future geo-biosphere interactions on the Tibetan Plateau and implications for permafrost

This manuscript resulted from a Workshop in 2019 at the Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Germany, supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20100300). J. Liu also thanks the support of the Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere and Watershed Water Security. T. Ehlers thanks the California Institute of Technology Moore Distinguished Scholar Program for support in completing this manuscript during a sabbatical. J. Liu and T. Bolch thank the support from the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (grants no. XDA20060402, XDA20100300). We thank the German Science Foundation (DFG) for support of the TiP (Tibetan Plateau: Formation-Climate-Ecoystems) priority research program (SPP-1372) for initiating the collaborations that led to this manuscript.Interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, and geosphere are most active in the critical zone, a region extending from the tops of trees to the top of unweathered bedrock. Changes in one or more of these spheres can result in a cascade of changes throughout the system in ways that are often poorly understood. Here we investigate how past and present climate change have impacted permafrost, hydrology, and ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau. We do this by compiling existing climate, hydrologic, cryosphere, biosphere, and geologic studies documenting change over decadal to glacial-interglacial timescales and longer. Our emphasis is on showing present-day trends in environmental change and how plateau ecosystems have largely flourished under warmer and wetter periods in the geologic past. We identify two future pathways that could lead to either a favorable greening or unfavorable degradation and desiccation of plateau ecosystems. Both paths are plausible given the available evidence. We contend that the key to which pathway future generations experience lies in what, if any, human intervention measures are implemented. We conclude with suggested management strategies that can be implemented to facilitate a future greening of the Tibetan Plateau.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Contributions of natural and human factors to increases in vegetation productivity in China

Increasing trends in vegetation productivity have been identified for the last three decades for many regions in the northern hemisphere including China. Multiple natural and human factors are possibly responsible for the increases in vegetation productivity, while their relative contributions remain unclear. Here we analyzed the long-term trends in vegetation productivity in China using the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and assessed the relationships of NDVI with a suite of natural (air temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, and nitrogen (N) deposition) and human (afforestation and improved agricultural management practices) factors. Overall, China exhibited an increasing trend in vegetation productivity with an increase of 2.7%. At the provincial scale, eleven provinces exhibited significant increases in vegetation productivity, and the majority of these provinces are located within the northern half of the country. At the national scale, annual air temperature was most closely related to NDVI and explained 36.8% of the variance in NDVI, followed by afforestation (25.5%) and crop yield (15.8%). Altogether, temperature, total forest plantation area, and crop yield explained 78.1% of the variance in vegetation productivity at the national scale, while precipitation, PAR, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and N deposition made no significant contribution to the increases in vegetation productivity. At the provincial scale, each factor explained a part of the variance in NDVI for some provinces, and the increases in NDVI for many provinces could be attributed to the combined effects of multiple factors. Crop yield and PAR were correlated with NDVI for more provinces than were other factors, indicating that both elevated crop yield resulting from improved agricultural management practices and increasing diffuse radiation were more important than other factors in increasing vegetation productivity at the provincial scale. The relative effects of the natural and human factors on vegetation productivity varied with spatial scale. The true contributions of multiple factors can be obscured by the correlation among these variables, and it is essential to examine the contribution of each factor while controlling for other factors. Future changes in climate and human activities will likely have larger influences on vegetation productivity in China

Response of Inland Lakes to Climate Change across the Tibetan Plateau Investigated Using Landsat and ICESat Data

The Tibetan Plateau experienced tremendous climate change during the past four decades. Due to the large size, widely distribution of cryosphere, and diverse landforms, different parts of the plateau may experience different climate and cryosphere changing patterns. The changes of inland lakes within the plateau are important indicators of climate change as these lakes are fed by precipitation, permafrost degradation, and glacier melting that are all sensitive to climate change. To examine the spatial and temporal differences of lake variations across the Tibetan Plateau, Landsat images and ICESat/GLAS altimetry data were used to extract the changes in surface areas of 26 lakes selected from six different sub-regions during the 1970s-2010 and the changes in lake elevations of these lakes during 2003-2009. An automated model to extract lake surface area and elevation from Landsat and ICESat data is developed to improve the efficiency of processing the large amount of satellite data. By applying this model, the spatial and temporal changing patterns of selected 26 inland lakes across the Tibetan Plateau during the past four decades are revealed. The lakes from different parts of the Tibetan Plateau show different changing patterns. The lake expansion firstly started from the Central Tibetan Plateau in the 1980s, then moving northward and northwestward; the Northeastern and Northwestern Tibetan Plateau experienced obvious expansion after the late 1990s, and this expansion is still continuing in the northern part, whereas the rapid lake expansion either slowed down or stopped in the central and southern parts of the plateau. The differences in lake changing pattern are caused by diverse climatic regimes and the pattern of the cryospheric distribution in the Tibetan Plateau. For the southern part of the plateau, the change in precipitation and evaporation seems to be the dominating factor to control the lake changes; however, the cryospheric change caused by temperature increase is the most important factor influencing the lake fluctuations in the northern part. These patterns can provide insight into the mechanism of lakes dynamics in response to climate and cryospheric changes; and be applied to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the Tibetan Plateau