Efficient transient simulation of failure/repair markovian models

Simulation methods have recently been developed for the solution of the extremely large Markovian dependability models which result from complex fault-tolerant computer systems. This paper presents efficient simulation methods for the estimation of transient reliability/availability metrics for repairable fault-tolerant computer systems which combine estimator decomposition techniques with an efficient importance sampling technique recently developed. Comparison with simulation methods previously proposed for the same type of metrics and models shows that the methods proposed here are orders of magnitude faster.Postprint (published version

Rare event simulation for dynamic fault trees

Fault trees (FT) are a popular industrial method for reliability engineering, for which Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique to estimate common dependability metrics, such as the system reliability and availability. A severe drawback of Monte Carlo simulation is that the number of simulations required to obtain accurate estimations grows extremely large in the presence of rare events, i.e., events whose probability of occurrence is very low, which typically holds for failures in highly reliable systems. This paper presents a novel method for rare event simulation of dynamic fault trees with complex repairs that requires only a modest number of simulations, while retaining statistically justified confidence intervals. Our method exploits the importance sampling technique for rare event simulation, together with a compositional state space generation method for dynamic fault trees. We demonstrate our approach using two parameterized sets of case studies, showing that our method can handle fault trees that could not be evaluated with either existing analytical techniques, nor with standard simulation techniques

PL-MODT and PL-MODMC : two codes for reliability and availability analysis of complex technical systems using the fault tree modularization technique

"November 1978."Includes bibliographical referencesThe methodology used in the PL-MOD code has been extended to include the time-dependent behavior of the fault tree components. Four classes of components are defined to model time-dependent fault tree leaves. Mathematical simplifications are applied to predict the time-dependent behavior of simple modules in the fault tree from its input components' failure data. The extended code, PL-MODT, handles time-dependent problems based on the mathematical models that have been established. An automatic tree reduction feature is also incorporated into this code. This reduction is based on the Vesely-Fussell importance measure that the code calculates. A CUT-OFF value is defined and incorporated into the code. Any module or component in the fault tree whose V-F importance is less than this value will automatically be eliminated from the tree. In order to benchmark the PL-MODT code, a number of systems are analyzed. The results are in good agreement with other codes, such as FRANTIC and KITT. The computation times are comparable and in most of the cases are even lower for the PL-MODT code compared to the others. In addition, a Monte-Carlo simulation code (PL-MODMC) is developed to propagate uncertainties in the failure rates of the components to the top event of a fault tree. An efficient sorting routine similar to the one used in the LIMITS code is employed in the PL-MODMC code. Upon modularization the code proceeds and propagates uncertainties in the failure rates through the tree. Large fault trees such as the LPRS fault tree as well as some smaller ones have been analyzed for simulation, and the results for the LPRS are in fair agreement with the WASH-1400 predictions for the number of simulations performed. The codes PL-MODT and PL-MODMC are written in PL/l language which offers the extensive use of the list processing tools. First experience indicates that these codes are very efficient and accurate, specifically for the analysis of very large and complex fault treesSponsored by the NR

Simulation and Experimental Demonstration of the Importance of IR-Drops During Laser Fault-Injection

International audienceLaser fault injections induce transient faults into ICs by locally generating transient currents that temporarily flip the outputs of the illuminated gates. Laser fault injection can be anticipated or studied by using simulation tools at different abstraction levels: physical, electrical or logical. At the electrical level, the classical laser-fault injection model is based on the addition of current sources to the various sensitive nodes of CMOS transistors. However, this model does not take into account the large transient current components also induced between the VDD and GND of ICs designed with advanced CMOS technologies. These short-circuit currents provoke a significant IR-drop that contribute to the fault injection process. This paper describes our research on the assessment of this contribution. It shows through simulation and experiments that during laser fault injection campaigns, laser-induced IR-drop is always present when considering circuits designed with deep submicron technologies. It introduces an enhanced electrical fault model taking the laser-induced IR-drop into account. It also proposes a methodology that allows the use of the model to simulate laser-induced faults at the electrical level in large-scale circuits. On the basis of further simulations and experimental results, we found that, depending on the laser pulse characteristics, the number of injected faults may be underestimated by a factor of up to 2.4 if the laser-induced IR-drop is ignored. This could lead to incorrect estimations of the fault injection threshold, which is especially relevant to the design of countermeasure techniques for secure integrated systems

Incorporation of fault rock properties into production simulation models

This thesis has two aims. First, to investigate the importance of incorporating the multiphase flow properties of faults into production simulation models. Second, to investigate methodologies to incorporate the multiphase flow properties of faults into production simulation models. Tests using simple simulation models suggest that in some situations it is not particularly important to take into account the multiphase flow properties of faults, whereas in other situations the multiphase properties have proved very important. The differences depend on drive mechanism, well position, and the capillary pressure distribution along the fault as well on the parameters that need to be modelled (e. g. bottom-hole pressures, hydrocarbon production rates, water cuts, etc. ). The results show that it is possible for hydrocarbons to flow across a sealing fault (i. e. 100% water saturation) as a result of its threshold pressure being overcome. The relative permeability of fault rocks may be one of the largest unknowns in simulating fluid in structurally complex petroleum reservoirs. Microstructural and petrophysical measurements are conducted on faults from core within the Pierce Field, North Sea. The results are used to calculate transmissibility multipliers (TMs) required to take into account the effect of faults on fluid flow within the Pierce production simulation model. The fault multiphase flow behaviour is approximated by varying the TMs as a function of height above the free water level. This methodology results in an improved history match of production data. Further, the improved model is then used to plan the optimal time to conduct a follow-up 3D seismic survey to identify unswept compartments. Further, an alternative model was proposed to overcome some of the possible limitations that the previous TM treatments may have at certain stages of a reservoir life. The similar behaviour of the different proposed fault models for the Pierce Field indicate that the current faulting system in this model is not largely responsible for the history mismatch in water production. Multiphase flow properties of faults can be incorporated into production simulation models using dynamic pseudofunctions. In this thesis, different dynamic pseudofunctions are generated by conducting high-resolution fluid flow models at the scale of the reservoir simulation grid block, using flow rates similar to those that are likely to be encountered within petroleum reservoirs. In these high-resolution models, both the fault and reservoir rock are given their own capillary pressure and relative permeability curves. The results of the simulations are used to create pseudocurves that are then incorporated into the up-scaled production simulation model to account for the presence of both the fault and undeformed reservoir. Different flow regimes are used to compare the performance of each pseudoisation method with the conventional, single-phase TM fault representations. The results presented in this thesis show that it is more important to incorporate fault multiphase properties in capillary dominated flow regimes than in those that are viscosity dominated. It should, however, be emphasised that the Brooks-Corey relations used to estimate relative permeability and capillary pressure curves of the fault rock in this study have a significant influence on some of these conclusions. In other words, these conclusions may not be valid if the relative permeability curves of fault rocks are very different to those calculated using the aforementioned relationships. Finally, an integrated workflow is outlined showing how dynamic pseudofunctions can be generated in fault juxtaposition models by taking advantage of the dynamic flux preservation feature in Eclipse 10OTM simulator