3,313 research outputs found

    Why have asset price properties changed so little in 200 years

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    We first review empirical evidence that asset prices have had episodes of large fluctuations and been inefficient for at least 200 years. We briefly review recent theoretical results as well as the neurological basis of trend following and finally argue that these asset price properties can be attributed to two fundamental mechanisms that have not changed for many centuries: an innate preference for trend following and the collective tendency to exploit as much as possible detectable price arbitrage, which leads to destabilizing feedback loops.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figure

    Overconfidence in Currency Markets

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    This paper tests the influential hypothesis, typically attributed to Friedman (1953), that irrational traders will be driven out of financial markets by trading losses. The paper’s main finding is that overconfident currency dealers are not driven out of the market. Traders with extensive experience are neither more nor less overconfident than their inexperienced colleagues. We first provide evidence that currency dealers are indeed overconfident, which is notable since they get daily trading practice and face intense financial incentives to accuracy.Overconfidence, imperfect rationality, currency dealers, survival of imperfect rationality

    Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases

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    We use a simple, three-item test for cognitive abilities to investigate whether established behavioral biases that play a prominent role in behavioral economics and finance are related to cognitive abilities. We find that higher test scores on the Cognitive Reflection Test of Frederick (2005) indeed are correlated with lower incidences of the conjunction fallacy, conservatism in updating probabilities, and overconfidence. Test scores are also significantly related to subjects' time and risk preferences. We find no influence on anchoring. However, even if biases are lower for people with higher cognitive abilities, they still remain substantial.

    The virtues and vices of equilibrium and the future of financial economics

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    The use of equilibrium models in economics springs from the desire for parsimonious models of economic phenomena that take human reasoning into account. This approach has been the cornerstone of modern economic theory. We explain why this is so, extolling the virtues of equilibrium theory; then we present a critique and describe why this approach is inherently limited, and why economics needs to move in new directions if it is to continue to make progress. We stress that this shouldn't be a question of dogma, but should be resolved empirically. There are situations where equilibrium models provide useful predictions and there are situations where they can never provide useful predictions. There are also many situations where the jury is still out, i.e., where so far they fail to provide a good description of the world, but where proper extensions might change this. Our goal is to convince the skeptics that equilibrium models can be useful, but also to make traditional economists more aware of the limitations of equilibrium models. We sketch some alternative approaches and discuss why they should play an important role in future research in economics.Comment: 68 pages, one figur

    THE RELEVANCE OF PSYCHOLOGY THEORIES TO FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING

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    Starting from the interest that we have found in psychology sciences in order to understand better the way managers, analysts and last but not least investors behave in the decision making process our study focuses on the link between financial reporting, disclosure policies and investors judgment under uncertainty. The theoretical background describes the rational judgment of investors found in economic utility theories but also looks upon the main cognitive and social psychology for irrational behavior in the decision making process. Our research mainly focuses on measuring the influence of five psychological factors on the irrational behavior of potential investor. We showed that overconfidence occurs when investors overestimate the precision of their private signals and their knowledge about the value of a financial transaction and always remember the successfully times and easily forget the failures. Also, we have pointed out that limited attention is frequently associated with changing in disclosure policies and selfcontrol is negatively related to irrational behavior of investor.psychology theories, financial reporting, disclosure, investor, judgment, decision making process, psychology variables

    The Virtues and Vices of Equilibrium and the Future of Financial Economics

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    The use of equilibrium models in economics springs from the desire for parsimonious models of economic phenomena that take human reasoning into account. This approach has been the cornerstone of modern economic theory. We explain why this is so, extolling the virtues of equilibrium theory; then we present a critique and describe why this approach is inherently limited, and why economics needs to move in new directions if it is to continue to make progress. We stress that this shouldn’t be a question of dogma, but should be resolved empirically. There are situations where equilibrium models provide useful predictions and there are situations where they can never provide useful predictions. There are also many situations where the jury is still out, i.e., where so far they fail to provide a good description of the world, but where proper extensions might change this. Our goal is to convince the skeptics that equilibrium models can be useful, but also to make traditional economists more aware of the limitations of equilibrium models. We sketch some alternative approaches and discuss why they should play an important role in future research in economics.Equilibrium, Rational expectations, Efficiency, Arbitrage, Bounded rationality, Power laws, Disequilibrium, Zero intelligence, Market ecology, Agent based modeling

    Continuous Market Engineering - Focusing Agent Behavior, Interfaces, and Auxiliary Services

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    Electronic markets spread out amongst business entities as well as private individuals. Albeit numerous approaches on developing electronic markets exist, a unified approach targeting market development, redesign, and refinement has been lacking. This thesis studies the potential of continuously improving electronic markets. Thereby, the experiments? design focuses on Agent Behavior, Interfaces, and Auxiliary Services and thus unveils the potential of continuously improving electronic markets
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