The impact of social versus individual learning for agents' risk perception during epidemics

© 2018 IEEE. Epidemics have always been a source of concern to people, both at the individual and government level. To fight outbreaks effectively, we need advanced tools that enable us to understand the factors that influence the spread of life-threatening diseases

Initial impacts of global risk mitigation measures taken during the combatting of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper presents an analysis of risk mitigation measures taken by countries around the world facing the current COVID-19 outbreak. In light of the current pandemic the authors collated and clustered (using harmonised terminology) the risk mitigation measures taken around the globe in the combat to contain, and since March 11 2020, to limiting the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus known to cause the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This overview gathers lessons learnt, provides an update on the current knowledge for authorities, sectors and first responders on the effectiveness and may allow enhanced prevention, preparedness and response for future outbreaks. Various measures such as mobility restrictions, physical distancing, hygienic measures, socio economic restrictions, communication and international support mechanisms have been clustered and are reviewed in terms of the nature of the actions taken and their qualitative early-perceived impact. At the time of writing, it is still too premature to express the quantitative effectiveness of each risk mitigation cluster, but it seems that the best mitigation results are reported when applying a combination of voluntary and enforceable measures.JRC.E.7-Knowledge for Security and Migratio

Nurturing Breakthroughs: Lessons from Complexity Theory

A general theory of innovation and progress in human society is outlined, based on the combat between two opposite forces (conservatism/inertia and speculative herding "bubble" behavior). We contend that human affairs are characterized by ubiquitous ``bubbles'', which involve huge risks which would not otherwise be taken using standard cost/benefit analysis. Bubbles result from self-reinforcing positive feedbacks. This leads to explore uncharted territories and niches whose rare successes lead to extraordinary discoveries and provide the base for the observed accelerating development of technology and of the economy. But the returns are very heterogeneous, very risky and may not occur. In other words, bubbles, which are characteristic definitions of human activity, allow huge risks to get huge returns over large scales. We outline some underlying mathematical structure and a few results involving positive feedbacks, emergence, heavy-tailed power laws, outliers/kings/black swans, the problem of predictability and the illusion of control, as well as some policy implications.Comment: 14 pages, Invited talk at the workshop Trans-disciplinary Research Agenda for Societal Dynamics (http://www.uni-lj.si/trasd in Ljubljana), organized by J. Rogers Hollingsworth, Karl H. Mueller, Ivan Svetlik, 24 - 25 May 2007, Ljubljana, Sloveni

Characterising Livestock System Zoonoses Hotspots

A systematic review of the published literature was undertaken, to explore the ability of different types of model to help identify the relative importance of different drivers leading to the development of zoonoses hotspots. We estimated that out of 373 papers we included in our review, 108 papers touched upon the objective of 'Assessment of interventions and intervention policies', 75 addressed the objective of 'Analysis of economic aspects of disease outbreaks and interventions', 67 the objective of 'Prediction of future outbreaks', but only 37 broadly addressed the objective of 'Sensitivity analysis to identify criteria leading to enhanced risk'. Most models of zoonotic diseases are currently capturing outbreaks over relatively short time and largely ignoring socio-economic drivers leading to pathogen emergence, spill-over and spread. In order to study long-term changes we need to understand how socio-economic and climatic changes affect structure of livestock production and how these in turn affect disease emergence and spread. Models capable of describing this processes do not appear to exist, although some progress has been made in linking social and economical aspects of livestock production and in linking economics to disease dynamics. Henceforth we conclude that a new modelling framework is required that expands and formalises the 'one world, one health' strategy, enabling its deployment in the re-thinking of prevention and control strategies. Although modelling can only provide means to identify risks associated with socio-economic changes, it can never be a substitute for data collection. Finally, we note that uncertainty analysis and uncertainty communication form a key element of modelling process and yet are rarely addressed

The Growing Threat of Agroterrorism and Strategies for Agricultural Defense

Due to the dynamic nature of human conflict, non-traditional terror tactics have evolved to undermine the socioeconomic stability of targeted societies. Considering the landscape in which terrorists operate, emphasis on more subversive methods of biological terror have become prominent in recent decades. Agroterrorism, or the use of plant pathogens to infect a nation’s cultivated crops, is an emerging topic due to its threat to global food security and economic stability. Although emergency preparedness objectives have been enacted at national, state, and even local levels, preemptive measures can no longer remain the sole responsibility of intelligence and law enforcement agencies. The agricultural and scientific communities are responsible for collaboration to improve security and pioneer new methods of disease resistance in susceptible crops. Plant immunology is an expanding field which explores the molecular defense mechanisms innately present within the plant kingdom and provides insight concerning novel methods of boosting the immunity of susceptible crops to existing and emerging pathogenic agents. This thesis serves to define the threat of agroterrorism from a national security and scientific perspective, identify notable plant pathogens, provide a brief survey of plant immunology, and discuss topics which can aid scientists, policymakers, and growers in efforts to secure the global food supply from those who would cause harm

The Impact of Health Risk Communication:A Study on the Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika Epidemics in Curaçao, Analyzed by the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF)

Epidemics of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika have been threatening the Caribbean. Since risk communication (RC) plays a fundamental role in preventing and controlling diseases understanding how RC works is essential for enabling risk-reducing behavior. This multimethod qualitative study compares news reports with local’s and health professional’s perspectives, currently lacking in RC research. It was found that RC strategies were obstructed by a lack of governmental structure, organization, and communication. The content analysis showed that the majority of newspaper articles contained negative reporting on the government. Furthermore, this study shows how trust and heuristics attenuate or amplify people’s risk perceptions and possibly positively and negatively influence people’s risk-reducing behavior. A transcending approach (e.g., structural, cooperative, and multidisciplinary) of the prevention and control of vector-borne diseases and the corresponding RC is recommended

Audit of Antenatal Testing of Sexually Transmissible Infections and Blood Borne Viruses at Western Australian Hospitals

In August 2007, the Western Australian Department of Health (DOH) released updated recommendations for testing of sexually transmissible infections (STI) and blood-borne viruses (BBV) in antenates. Prior to this, the Royal Australian & New Zealand College of Obstetricians & Gynaecologists (RANZCOG) antenatal testing recommendations had been accepted practice in most antenatal settings. The RANZCOG recommends that testing for HIV, syphilis, hepatitis B and C be offered at the first antenatal visit. The DOH recommends that in addition, chlamydia testing be offered. We conducted a baseline audit of antenatal STI/BBV testing in women who delivered at selected public hospitals before the DOH recommendations. We examined the medical records of 200 women who had delivered before 1st July 2007 from each of the sevenWAhospitals included in the audit. STI and BBV testing information and demographic data were collected. Of the 1,409 women included, 1,205 (86%) were non-Aboriginal and 200 (14%) were Aboriginal. High proportions of women had been tested for HIV (76%), syphilis (86%), hepatitis C (87%) and hepatitis B (88%). Overall, 72% of women had undergone STI/BBV testing in accordance with RANZCOG recommendations. However, chlamydia testing was evident in only 18% of records. STI/BBV prevalence ranged from 3.9% (CI 1.5– 6.3%) for chlamydia, to 1.7% (CI 1–2.4%) for hepatitis C, 0.7% (CI 0.3–1.2) for hepatitis B and 0.6% (CI 0.2–1) for syphilis. Prior to the DOH recommendations, nearly three-quarters of antenates had undergone STI/BBV testing in accordance with RANZCOG recommendations, but less than one fifth had been tested for chlamydia. The DOH recommendations will be further promoted with the assistance of hospitals and other stakeholders. A future audit will be conducted to determine the proportion of women tested according to the DOH recommendations. The hand book from this conference is available for download Published in 2008 by the Australasian Society for HIV Medicine Inc © Australasian Society for HIV Medicine Inc 2008 ISBN: 978-1-920773-59-

Timescales of Massive Human Entrainment

The past two decades have seen an upsurge of interest in the collective behaviors of complex systems composed of many agents entrained to each other and to external events. In this paper, we extend concepts of entrainment to the dynamics of human collective attention. We conducted a detailed investigation of the unfolding of human entrainment - as expressed by the content and patterns of hundreds of thousands of messages on Twitter - during the 2012 US presidential debates. By time locking these data sources, we quantify the impact of the unfolding debate on human attention. We show that collective social behavior covaries second-by-second to the interactional dynamics of the debates: A candidate speaking induces rapid increases in mentions of his name on social media and decreases in mentions of the other candidate. Moreover, interruptions by an interlocutor increase the attention received. We also highlight a distinct time scale for the impact of salient moments in the debate: Mentions in social media start within 5-10 seconds after the moment; peak at approximately one minute; and slowly decay in a consistent fashion across well-known events during the debates. Finally, we show that public attention after an initial burst slowly decays through the course of the debates. Thus we demonstrate that large-scale human entrainment may hold across a number of distinct scales, in an exquisitely time-locked fashion. The methods and results pave the way for careful study of the dynamics and mechanisms of large-scale human entrainment.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, 6 tables, 4 supplementary figures. 2nd version revised according to peer reviewers' comments: more detailed explanation of the methods, and grounding of the hypothese

Unmasked in the Plandemic: Misinformation during the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic

This paper explores the misinformation phenomena surrounding COVID-19 on social media platforms and its potential impact on the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. It defines the terms misinformation and disinformation and links these to recent political phenomena of “fake news” and political disinformation campaigns. It characterizes the sources of misinformation online and seeks to analyze the psycho-social and cognitive mechanisms of online misinformation spread such as source and message credibility through research on vaccine hesitancy and misinformation online during other global pandemics and resurging epidemics. Network analysis establishes that misinformation online spreads farther and faster than factual information on social media platforms. Relationships between misinformation and impact on health are explored utilizing research based in agent-based modeling techniques. It argues for the quantification and characterization of COVID-19 online misinformation in order to develop targeted interventions to vulnerable and at-risk groups using informed risk communication practices across all levels of government to mitigate disparities in COVID-19 case rates and transmission. Keywords: SARS-CoV-19; COVID-19; Misinformation; Disinformation; Credibility; Network Analysis; Risk Communication; Crisis Communication; Health Communicatio