Traffic-light control in urban environment exploiting drivers' reaction to the expected red lights duration

Traffic congestion in urban environment is one of the most critical issue for drivers and city planners for both environment and efficiency reasons. Traffic lights are one of the main tools used to regulate traffic by diverting the drivers between different paths. Rational drivers, in turn, react to the traffic light duration by evaluating their options and, if necessary, by changing direction in order to reach their destination quicker. In this paper, we introduce a macroscopic traffic model for urban intersections that incorporates this rational behavior of the drivers. Then, we exploit it to show that, by providing additional information about the expected redtime duration to the drivers, one can decrease the amount of congestion in the network and the overall length of the queues at the intersections. Additionally, we develop a control policy for the traffic lights that exploits the reaction of the drivers in order to divert them to a different route to further increase the performances. These claims are supported by extensive numerical simulations

Traffic-light control in urban environment exploiting drivers’ reaction to the expected red lights duration

Traffic congestion in urban environment is one of the most critical issue for drivers and city planners for both environment and efficiency reasons. Traffic lights are one of the main tools used to regulate traffic by diverting the drivers between different paths. Rational drivers, in turn, react to the traffic light duration by evaluating their options and, if necessary, by changing direction in order to reach their destination quicker. In this paper, we introduce a macroscopic traffic model for urban intersections that incorporates this rational behavior of the drivers. Then, we exploit it to show that, by providing additional information about the expected red-time duration to the drivers, one can decrease the amount of congestion in the network and the overall length of the queues at the intersections. Additionally, we develop a control policy for the traffic lights that exploits the reaction of the drivers in order to divert them to a different route to further increase the performances. These claims are supported by extensive numerical simulations

Finite Element Modeling of Active and Passive Behavior of the Human Tibialis Anterior: A Preliminary Approach

This research project serves as exploratory work in the field of computational human biomechanics. A connection between muscular force and intramuscular pressure (IMP) has been uncovered that could prove invaluable in medical diagnostics as a method to circumvent the use of electromyography. Preliminary finite element simulations were conducted to model the human tibialis anterior muscle in passive lengthening and active contraction. These simulations, totaling over 50 unique runs, utilized a novel constitutive model developed within the IMP research group. Volumetric strain, reaction forces, and pressure gradients were compared to data acquired from ongoing in vivo human experiments. A mechanism for passive stretching and active contraction was theorized, with the aponeuroses bearing the majority of the load due to their high stiffness. Though the model will require future iterations to make adjustments, several promising conclusions were drawn during analysis. Fluid pressure distributions mimic those of the volumetric strain, and provide a better prediction of IMP than hydrostatic pressure. Reaction forces and pressure readings can be iterated to a reasonable level of accuracy. A thorough list of recommendations was compiled in order to guide the future direction of the model. Fluid pressures for the active contractile simulations were higher than the expected IMP values, likely owing to the stiffness of the aponeuroses being greater than necessary. Several options for addressing this issue were proposed, such as decreased aponeurosis length and graduated thickness and stiffness of the elements in the extremes of the parts

Pricing short leases and break clauses using simulation methodology

This paper examines the changes in the length of commercial property leases over the last decade and presents an analysis of the consequent investment and occupational pricing implications for commercial property investmentsIt is argued that the pricing implications of a short lease to an investor are contingent upon the expected costs of the letting termination to the investor, the probability that the letting will be terminated and the volatility of rental values.The paper examines the key factors influencing these variables and presents a framework for incorporating their effects into pricing models.Approaches to their valuation derived from option pricing are critically assessed. It is argued that such models also tend to neglect the price effects of specific risk factors such as tenant circumstances and the terms of break clause. Specific risk factors have a significant bearing on the probability of letting termination and on the level of the resultant financial losses. The merits of a simulation methododology are examined for rental and capital valuations of short leases and properties with break clauses.It is concluded that in addition to the rigour of its internal logic, the success of any methodology is predicated upon the accuracy of the inputs.The lack of reliable data on patterns in, and incidence of, lease termination and the lack of reliable time series of historic property performance limit the efficacy of financial models

Item statistics derived from three-option versions of multiple-choice questions are usually as robust as four- or five-option versions: implications for exam design.

Different versions of multiple-choice exams were administered to an undergraduate class in human physiology as part of normal testing in the classroom. The goal was to evaluate whether the number of options (possible answers) per question influenced the effectiveness of this assessment. Three exams (each with three versions) were given to each of two sections during an academic quarter. All versions were equally long, with 30 questions: 10 questions with 3 options, 10 questions with 4, and 10 questions with 5 (always one correct answer plus distractors). Each question appeared in all three versions of an exam, with a different number of options in each version (three, four, or five). Discrimination (point biserial and upper-lower discrimination indexes) and difficulty were evaluated for each question. There was a small increase in difficulty (a lower average score on a question) when more options were provided. The upper-lower discrimination index indicated a small improvement in assessment of student learning with more options, although the point biserial did not. The total length of a question (number of words) was associated with a small increase in discrimination and difficulty, independent of the number of options. Quantitative questions were more likely to show an increase in discrimination with more options than nonquantitative questions, but this effect was very small. Therefore, for these testing conditions, there appears to be little advantage in providing more than three options per multiple-choice question, and there are disadvantages, such as needing more time for an exam

Is jump risk priced? - What we can (and cannot) learn from option hedging errors : [This version: November 26, 2004]

When options are traded, one can use their prices and price changes to draw inference about the set of risk factors and their risk premia. We analyze tests for the existence and the sign of the market prices of jump risk that are based on option hedging errors. We derive a closed-form solution for the option hedging error and its expectation in a stochastic jump model under continuous trading and correct model specification. Jump risk is structurally different from, e.g., stochastic volatility: there is one market price of risk for each jump size (and not just \emph{the} market price of jump risk). Thus, the expected hedging error cannot identify the exact structure of the compensation for jump risk. Furthermore, we derive closed form solutions for the expected option hedging error under discrete trading and model mis-specification. Compared to the ideal case, the sign of the expected hedging error can change, so that empirical tests based on simplifying assumptions about trading frequency and the model may lead to incorrect conclusions