Quantitative Research on the Evolution Stages of We-media Network Public Opinion based on a Logistic Equation

We-media network public opinion is a new force in the current social public opinion field that has an important impact on the guidance of social public opinion and social stability. Studying the periodic law of we-media network public opinion dissemination and constructing a quantitative model of we-media network public opinion dissemination stages provide the basis for guiding social public opinion and governing we-media network public opinion dissemination. Based on this, this paper explores the life cycle of we-media network public opinion evolution, analyzes the characteristics and connotations of each evolution stage, and determines the dominant indicators of we-media network public opinion evolution stages; in addition, this paper constructs a logistic quantitative model and its stage refinement model for the evolution and development of we-media network public opinion and uses MATLAB software to simulate the event of the academic fraud of the Chinese actor Zhai. This paper studies the four key points on the logistic curve of we-media network public opinion evolution and the five key intervals, analyzes the connotation of the quantified stage of each interval, and puts forward the governance strategy of we-media network public opinion events, through the simulation of initial values, growth rates and upper limits

Bounded Confidence Evolution of Opinions and Actions in Social Networks

This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 71991460, Grant 71991465, Grant 71871149, Grant 71910107002, and Grant 71725001; in part by the Research Foundation of Education Bureau of Hunan Province, China, under Grant 20B147; and in part by the Spanish State Research Agency under Project PID2019-103880RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.Inspired by the continuous opinion and discrete action (CODA) model, bounded confidence and social networks, the bounded confidence evolution of opinions and actions in social networks is investigated and a social network opinions and actions evolutions (SNOAEs) model is proposed. In the SNOAE model, it is assumed that each agent has a CODA for a certain issue. Agents’ opinions are private and invisible, that is, an individual agent only knows its own opinion and cannot obtain other agents’ opinions unless there is a social network connection edge that allows their communication; agents’ actions are public and visible to all agents and impact other agents’ actions. Opinions and actions evolve in a directed social network. In the limitation of the bounded confidence, other agents’ actions or agents’ opinions noticed or obtained by network communication, respectively, are used by agents to update their opinions. Based on the SNOAE model, the evolution of the opinions and actions with bounded confidence is investigated in social networks both theoretically and experimentally with a detailed simulation analysis. Theoretical research results show that discrete actions can attract agents who trust the discrete action, and make agents to express extreme opinions. Simulation experiments results show that social network connection probability, bounded confidence, and the opinion threshold of action choice parameters have strong impacts on the evolution of opinions and actions. However, the number of agents in the social network has no obvious influence on the evolution of opinions and actions.National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) 71991460 71991465 71871149 71910107002 71725001Research Foundation of Education Bureau of Hunan Province, China 20B147Spanish Government PID2019-103880RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/50110001103

Echo chamber effects based on a novel three-dimensional Deffuant-Weisbuch model

In order to solve the problem of opinion polarization and distortion caused by echo chamber effect in the evolution process of online public opinion,a three-dimensional Deffuant-Weisbuch model is proposed to study the formation and elimination of echo chamber effect in this paper. Firstly, the original pairwise interaction model is generalized to three-point interaction model. Secondly, we consider individual psychological mechanism and introduce individual emotional factor into the trust threshold of original model. Finally, the natural evolution coefficient of opinion is introduced to modify the model. The improved model is used to conduct simulation experiments on social networks with different structures, and opinion leaders and active agents are introduced into the network, so as to study the corresponding generation and breaking mechanism of echo chamber. The experimental results show that the change of network structure cannot eliminate the echo chamber effect, and the increase of network stability and connectivity can only slow down the echo chamber effect. Opinion leaders can aggregate opinions within their scope of influence and have a guiding effect on opinions. Therefore, if opinion leaders can change their opinions over time, they can well guide opinions to converge to neutral opinions, thus achieving the purpose of breaking the echo chamber. Active agents can lead the opinions in the network to converge to the neutral, and active agents with high stubbornness can lead the free views to converge to the neutral, thus achieving the purpose of breaking the echo chamber effect.Comment: 34pages 57figure

Indifferents as an interface between Contra and Pro

In most sociophysical simulations on public opinion, only two opinions are allowed: Pro and Contra. However, in all political elections many people do not vote. Here we analyse two models of dynamics of public opinion, taking into account Indifferent voters: {\it i)} the Sznajd model with symmetry Pro-Contra, {\it ii)} the outflow one move voter model, where Contra's are converted to Indifferent by their Pro neighbours. Our results on the Sznajd model are in an overall agreement with the results of the mean field approach and with those known from the initial model formulation. The simulation on the voter model shows that an amount of Contra's who remain after convertion depends on the network topology.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure

Can extremism guarantee pluralism?

Many models have been proposed to explain opinion formation in groups of individuals; most of these models study opinion propagation as the interaction between nodes/agents in a social network. Opinion formation is a complex process and a realistic model should also take into account the important feedbacks that the opinions of the agents have on the structure of the social networks and on the characteristics of the opinion dynamics. In this paper we will show that associating to different agents different kinds of interconnections and different interacting behaviours can lead to interesting scenarios, like the coexistence of several opinion clusters, namely pluralism. In our model agents have opinions uniformly and continuously distributed between two extremes. The social network is formed through a social aggregation mechanism including the segregation process of the extremists that results in many real communities. We show how this process affects the opinion dynamics in the whole society. In the opinion evolution we consider the different predisposition of single individuals to interact and to exchange opinion with each other; we associate to each individual a different tolerance threshold, depending on its own opinion: extremists are less willing to interact with individuals with strongly different opinions and to change significantly their ideas. A general result is obtained: when there is no interaction restriction, the opinion always converges to uniformity, but the same is happening whenever a strong segregation process of the extremists occurs. Only when extremists are forming clusters but these clusters keep interacting with the rest of the society, the survival of a wide opinion range is guaranteed.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figure

EVOLUTIONARY STABLE PROPERTIES OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN INDONESIA

The major idea is to use memetics as an analytical tool on viewing how the existing political parties towards General Election 2004 creating formation of their presidential candidacy, ideology behind it, the change of political atmosphere it will bring, etc. into a compact evolutionary model that exhibits fitness of each political party within population of a society. The strategy used is through transforming polling statistical language into evolutionary stable language of dynamical system. Here, memetic method is applied as an evolutionary computational tool