Spatial Dynamic Modeling and Urban Land Use Transformation:

Assessing the economic impacts of urban land use transformation has become complex and acrimonious. Although community planners are beginning to comprehend the economic trade-offs inherent in transforming the urban fringe, they find it increasingly difficult to analyze and assess the trade-offs expediently and in ways that can influence local decisionmaking. New and sophisticated spatial modeling techniques are now being applied to urban systems that can quickly assess the probable spatial outcomes of given communal policies. Applying an economic impact assessment to the probable spatial patterns can provide to planners the tools needed to quickly assess scenarios for policy formation that will ultimately help inform decision makers. This paper focuses on the theoretical underpinnings and practical application of an economic impact analysis submodel developed within the Land use Evolution and Impact Assessment Modeling (LEAM) environment. The conceptual framework of LEAM is described, followed by an application of the model to the assessment of the cost of urban sprawl in Kane County, Illinois. The results show the effectiveness of spatially explicit modeling from a theoretical and a practical point of view. The agent-based approach of spatial dynamic modeling with a high spatial resolution allows for discerning the macro-level implications of micro-level behaviors. These phenomena are highlighted in the economic submodel in the discussion of the implications of land use change decisions on individual and communal costs; low-density development patterns favoring individual behaviors at the expense of the broader community.

Learning and innovative elements of strategy adoption rules expand cooperative network topologies

Cooperation plays a key role in the evolution of complex systems. However, the level of cooperation extensively varies with the topology of agent networks in the widely used models of repeated games. Here we show that cooperation remains rather stable by applying the reinforcement learning strategy adoption rule, Q-learning on a variety of random, regular, small-word, scale-free and modular network models in repeated, multi-agent Prisoners Dilemma and Hawk-Dove games. Furthermore, we found that using the above model systems other long-term learning strategy adoption rules also promote cooperation, while introducing a low level of noise (as a model of innovation) to the strategy adoption rules makes the level of cooperation less dependent on the actual network topology. Our results demonstrate that long-term learning and random elements in the strategy adoption rules, when acting together, extend the range of network topologies enabling the development of cooperation at a wider range of costs and temptations. These results suggest that a balanced duo of learning and innovation may help to preserve cooperation during the re-organization of real-world networks, and may play a prominent role in the evolution of self-organizing, complex systems.Comment: 14 pages, 3 Figures + a Supplementary Material with 25 pages, 3 Tables, 12 Figures and 116 reference

Neighborhoods, social capital and economic success.

This study examines the relationship between neighborhoods, social capital and economic success. In the model developed in this research, social capital mediates the relationship between neighborhoods and economic success. Social capital represents social networks with their associated norms and resources and increases economic success by facilitating cooperation and by lowering transaction costs. Neighborhoods affect social capital through local interactions, network exclusion, social learning and social identity processes. An understudied part of these relationships is the existence of endogeneity among the key variables. Using data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods, this study uses structural equation modeling to test the model empirically and find that social capital and economic success are endogenous, but while social capital increases economic success, economic success decreases social capital, ceteris paribus. I also find that social capital is highly dependent on neighborhood levels of social capital. These results suggest that place-based policies may be an effective method for increasing economic success

Inertia in spatial public goods games under weak selection

Due to limited cognitive skills for perceptual error or other emotional reasons, players may keep their current strategies even if there is a more promising choice. Such behavior inertia has already been studied, but its consequences remained unexplored in the weak selection limit. To fill this gap, we consider a spatial public goods game model where inertia is considered during the imitation process. By using the identity-by-descent method, we present analytical forms of the critical synergy factor $r^\star$, which determines when cooperation is favored. We find that inertia hinders cooperation, which can be explained by the decelerated coarsening process under weak selection. Interestingly, the critical synergy conditions for different updating protocols, including death-birth and birth-death rules, can be formally linked by the extreme limits of the inertia factor. To explore the robustness of our observations, calculations are made for different lattices and group sizes. Monte Carlo simulations also confirm the results

Spatial dynamic modeling and urban land use transformation : an ecological simulation approach to assessing the costs of urban sprawl

Assessing the economic impacts of urban land use transformation has become complex and acrimonious. Although community planners are beginning to comprehend the economic trade-offs inherent in transforming the urban fringe, they find it increasingly difficult to analyze and assess the trade-offs expediently and in ways that can influence local decisionmaking. New and sophisticated spatial modeling techniques are now being applied to urban systems that can quickly assess the probable spatial outcomes of given communal policies. Applying an economic impact assessment to the probable spatial patterns can provide to planners the tools needed to quickly assess scenarios for policy formation that will ultimately help inform decision makers. This paper focuses on the theoretical underpinnings and practical application of an economic impact analysis submodel developed within the Land use Evolution and Impact Assessment Modeling (LEAM) environment. The conceptual framework of LEAM is described, followed by an application of the model to the assessment of the cost of urban sprawl in Kane County, Illinois. The results show the effectiveness of spatially explicit modeling from a theoretical and a practical point of view. The agent-based approach of spatial dynamic modeling with a high spatial resolution allows for discerning the macro-level implications of micro-level behaviors. These phenomena are highlighted in the economic submodel in the discussion of the implications of land use change decisions on individual and communal costs; low-density development patterns favoring individual behaviors at the expense of the broader community

IDENTIFYING A CUSTOMER CENTERED APPROACH FOR URBAN PLANNING: DEFINING A FRAMEWORK AND EVALUATING POTENTIAL IN A LIVABILITY CONTEXT

In transportation planning, public engagement is an essential requirement forinformed decision-making. This is especially true for assessing abstract concepts such aslivability, where it is challenging to define objective measures and to obtain input that canbe used to gauge performance of communities. This dissertation focuses on advancing adata-driven decision-making approach for the transportation planning domain in thecontext of livability. First, a conceptual model for a customer-centric framework fortransportation planning is designed integrating insight from multiple disciplines (chapter1), then a data-mining approach to extracting features important for defining customersatisfaction in a livability context is described (chapter 2), and finally an appraisal of thepotential of social media review mining for enhancing understanding of livability measuresand increasing engagement in the planning process is undertaken (chapter 3). The resultsof this work also include a sentiment analysis and visualization package for interpreting anautomated user-defined translation of qualitative measures of livability. The packageevaluates users satisfaction of neighborhoods through social media and enhances thetraditional approaches to defining livability planning measures. This approach has thepotential to capitalize on residents interests in social media outlets and to increase publicengagement in the planning process by encouraging users to participate in onlineneighborhood satisfaction reporting. The results inform future work for deploying acomprehensive approach to planning that draws the marketing structure of transportationnetwork products with residential nodes as the center of the structure

Dynamics and collective phenomena of social systems

This thesis focuses on the study of social systems through methods of theoretical physics, in particular proceedings of statistical physics and complex systems, as well as mathematical tools like game theory and complex networks. There already ex- ists predictive and analysis methods to address these problems in sociology, but the contribution of physics provides new perspectives and complementary and powerful tools. This approach is particularly useful in problems involving stochastic aspects and nonlinear dynamics. The contribution of physics to social systems provides not only prediction procedures, but new insights, especially in the study of emergent properties that arise from holistic approaches. We study social systems by introducing different agent-based models (ABM). When possible, the models are analyzed using mathematical methods of physics, in order to achieve analytical solutions. In addition to a theoretical approach, experi- mental treatment is performed via computer simulations both through Monte Carlo methods and deterministic or mixed procedures. This working method has proved very fruitful for the study of several open problems. The book is structured as follows. This introduction presents the mathematical formalisms used in the investigations, which are structured in two parts: in part I we deal with the emergence of cooperation, while in part II we analyze cultural dynamics under the perspective of tolerance

Religion as a Seed Crystal for Altruistic Cooperation

The ability to solve problems of collective action is crucial for economic performance. Growth-fostering behavioral propensities such as respecting property, honoring contracts, or helping others are collectively beneficial but individually costly. The paradigmatic formalization of this rationality gap is provided by the non-iterated Prisoners’ Dilemma, where rational players are locked in at a state of mutual defection while mutual cooperation would be better for everyone. In sporadic, ex-ante anonymous interactions (like in modern large-scale societies), the ‘shadow of the future’ cannot sustain cooperation. Cooperation must be altruistic, in the sense that a cooperator enhances her opponent’s payoff at her own expense. In this piece of work another group selection mechanism is presented that generates and sustains altruism in ex-ante anonymous settings. Assuming that cooperative attitudes are coupled with a preference for participating in costly rituals (religious involvement is taken as an example), interactions take place within two endogenously separated groups. The signaling value of religion in the model derives not from differential costliness but from cooperators’ intrinsic nature of motivation. Noncooperative types have to learn about the matching gains from religious involvement while cooperative types need not. This induces an initial advantage to cooperative/religious types at the beginning of each generation, thereby sustaining altruism in the long run via religious participation.Altruism; Prisoners' Dilemma; Evolutionary Game Theory; Signaling; Religion