A comparative study of multiple-criteria decision-making methods under stochastic inputs

This paper presents an application and extension of multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods to account for stochastic input variables. More in particular, a comparative study is carried out among well-known and widely-applied methods in MCDM, when applied to the reference problem of the selection of wind turbine support structures for a given deployment location. Along with data from industrial experts, six deterministic MCDM methods are studied, so as to determine the best alternative among the available options, assessed against selected criteria with a view toward assigning confidence levels to each option. Following an overview of the literature around MCDM problems, the best practice implementation of each method is presented aiming to assist stakeholders and decision-makers to support decisions in real-world applications, where many and often conflicting criteria are present within uncertain environments. The outcomes of this research highlight that more sophisticated methods, such as technique for the order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Preference Ranking Organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE), better predict the optimum design alternative

Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: An Application to German Regional Labour Markets

This paper develops a flexible multi-dimensional assessment method for the comparison of different statistical-econometric techniques based on learning mechanisms with a view to analysing and forecasting regional labour markets. The aim of this paper is twofold. A first major objective is to explore the use of a standard choice tool, namely Multicriteria Analysis (MCA), in order to cope with the intrinsic methodological uncertainty on the choice of a suitable statistical-econometric learning technique for regional labour market analysis. MCA is applied here to support choices on the performance of various models -based on classes of Neural Network (NN) techniques-that serve to generate employment forecasts in West Germany at a regional/district level. A second objective of the paper is to analyse the methodological potential of a blend of approaches (NN-MCA) in order to extend the analysis framework to other economic research domains, where formal models are not available, but where a variety of statistical data is present. The paper offers a basis for a more balanced judgement of the performance of rival statistical tests

A Manifesto for the Equifinality Thesis.

This essay discusses some of the issues involved in the identification and predictions of hydrological models given some calibration data. The reasons for the incompleteness of traditional calibration methods are discussed. The argument is made that the potential for multiple acceptable models as representations of hydrological and other environmental systems (the equifinality thesis) should be given more serious consideration than hitherto. It proposes some techniques for an extended GLUE methodology to make it more rigorous and outlines some of the research issues still to be resolved

Volatility forecasting

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3, 4 and 5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly. JEL Klassifikation: C10, C53, G1

Fundamental bounds on transmission through periodically perforated metal screens with experimental validation

This paper presents a study of transmission through arrays of periodic sub-wavelength apertures. Fundamental limitations for this phenomenon are formulated as a sum rule, relating the transmission coefficient over a bandwidth to the static polarizability. The sum rule is rigorously derived for arbitrary periodic apertures in thin screens. By this sum rule we establish a physical bound on the transmission bandwidth which is verified numerically for a number of aperture array designs. We utilize the sum rule to design and optimize sub-wavelength frequency selective surfaces with a bandwidth close to the physically attainable. Finally, we verify the sum rule and simulations by measurements of an array of horseshoe-shaped slots milled in aluminum foil.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figures. Updated Introduction and Conclusion

Automatic summarising: factors and directions

This position paper suggests that progress with automatic summarising demands a better research methodology and a carefully focussed research strategy. In order to develop effective procedures it is necessary to identify and respond to the context factors, i.e. input, purpose, and output factors, that bear on summarising and its evaluation. The paper analyses and illustrates these factors and their implications for evaluation. It then argues that this analysis, together with the state of the art and the intrinsic difficulty of summarising, imply a nearer-term strategy concentrating on shallow, but not surface, text analysis and on indicative summarising. This is illustrated with current work, from which a potentially productive research programme can be developed

Probabilistic Graphical Models on Multi-Core CPUs using Java 8

In this paper, we discuss software design issues related to the development of parallel computational intelligence algorithms on multi-core CPUs, using the new Java 8 functional programming features. In particular, we focus on probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) and present the parallelisation of a collection of algorithms that deal with inference and learning of PGMs from data. Namely, maximum likelihood estimation, importance sampling, and greedy search for solving combinatorial optimisation problems. Through these concrete examples, we tackle the problem of defining efficient data structures for PGMs and parallel processing of same-size batches of data sets using Java 8 features. We also provide straightforward techniques to code parallel algorithms that seamlessly exploit multi-core processors. The experimental analysis, carried out using our open source AMIDST (Analysis of MassIve Data STreams) Java toolbox, shows the merits of the proposed solutions.Comment: Pre-print version of the paper presented in the special issue on Computational Intelligence Software at IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine journa