Australian Sheep Industry CRC: Economic Evaluations of Scientific Research Programs

By the end of its seven-year term in 2007-08, the Australian Sheep Industry CRC (Sheep CRC) will have received total funds of about $90 million, that comprises Commonwealth and industry funding of$30 million, and in-kind contributions valued at $60 million. This level of public and private funding emphasises the need for the Sheep CRC to demonstrate that its research programs will generate sound economic returns to all stakeholders. This paper reports an evaluation of the potential economic value of the achievements of the Sheep CRC at the midpoint of its term of operations at which it has some completed research and a large volume of research in progress. The main question that has been addressed in this evaluation concerns the nature and likely magnitude of the potential benefits relative to the costs of their realisation. The economic methods and other procedures that were used to answer this question, the evaluation scenarios and the results obtained are described. Based on the defined with- and without-Sheep CRC evaluation scenarios, the ‘bottom-line’ result was that the Sheep CRC’s scientific research programs have the potential to deliver a total incremental benefit with a 20-year net present value (NPV) of$191.3 million, and a total benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 8.1:1 (both at a 5% real rate of discount), indicating that the Sheep CRC’s total research investment over all programs has the potential to return about $8 for every$1 of research investment funds.sheep research, economic evaluations, economic-surplus- benefit-cost analysis., Agribusiness, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q160,

Measuring the impacts of the CAP in Spain: A CGE model approach

The Mid Term Review introduced a decoupling of agricultural support from production decisions, although with opt-out clauses for specific payments in particular sectors. The ‘Health Check’ seeks to deepen the degree of decoupling, whilst importantly for Spain, offers the option of extending this model of support to the fruit and vegetables sectors. Employing a computable general equilibrium model, this paper sets out to quantitatively assess the agro-food and macroeconomic impacts of the Mid Term Review and Health Check proposals in Spain. With greater decoupling, agricultural output falls slightly, whilst resources are reallocated in favour of arable activities.CAP, CGE modelling, ORANI, mid term review, health check., Agricultural and Food Policy, C68, Q18.,

Comparing Heterogeneous Consumption in US and Japanese Meat and Fish Demand

This article uses national, quarterly data to conduct an empirical analysis of pre-committed meat and fish demand by US and Japanese households using the Generalized Almost Ideal Demand System (GAIDS). US consumers are found to hold pre-committed demand for beef and pork, while Japanese consumers appear to possess significant pre-committed demand for beef and fish. This provides evidence to partly explain observed differences in Japanese and US consumer reactions to non-price and non-income effects in beef, pork, poultry, and fish. In addition, the first known empirical comparison of how the GAIDS and more traditional AIDS models assess meat and fish demand is offered with both in- and out-of-sample evaluations.US/Japanese meat demand, demand forecasting, food safety, Generalized Almost Ideal Demand System, pre-committed consumption, Demand and Price Analysis,

U.S. Meat Demand: Household Dynamics and Media Information Impacts

This article uses national, quarterly data to examine U.S. meat demand using the Rotterdam model. We investigate the effect of multiple information indices linking different health concerns with diet, changes in household dynamics, and meat recall information. Medical journal articles linking iron, zinc, and protein with health and diet increase beef and poultry demand, whereas articles dealing with fat, cholesterol, and diet concerns reduce beef demand. Increasing consumption of food away from home enhances pork and poultry demand while reducing beef demand. Combined, these results provide a more complete and current understanding of the impact of multiple information factors faced by U.S. consumers.Atkins diet, female workforce, food away from home, food safety, health concerns, meat recalls, U.S. meat demand, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Livestock Production/Industries,

Growth and inactivation of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes in broth and validation in ground pork meat during simulated home storage abusive temperature and home pan-frying

Ground pork meat with natural microbiota and inoculated with low initial densities (1-10 or 10-100 CFU/g) of Salmonella enter/ca or Listeria monocytogenes was stored under abusive temperature at 10 degrees C and thermally treated by a simulated home pan-frying procedure. The growth and inactivation characteristics were also evaluated in broth. In ground pork meat, the population of S. enter/ca increased by less than one log after 12 days of storage at 10 degrees C, whereas L. monocytogenes increased by 2.3 to 2.8 log units. No unusual intrinsic heat resistance of the pathogens was noted when tested in broth at 60 degrees C although shoulders were observed on the inactivation curves of L. monocytogenes. After growth of S. enter/ca and L. monocytogenes at 10 degrees C for 5 days to levels of 1.95 log CFU/g and 3.10 log CFU/g, respectively, in ground pork meat, their inactivation in the burger subjected to a simulated home pan-frying was studied. After thermal treatment S. enter/ca was undetectable but L. monocytogenes was recovered in three out of six of the 25 g burger samples. Overall, the present study shows that data on growth and inactivation of broths are indicative but may underestimate as well as overestimate behavior of pathogens and thus need confirmation in food matrix conditions to assess food safety in reasonably foreseen abusive conditions of storage and usual home pan-frying of meat burgers in Belgium

Measuring the impact of trade policy reform in Ireland: A disaggregated analysis of household impacts

The purpose of this paper is to assess the impacts of further trade liberalisation on the agricultural sector in Ireland. In addition to evaluating the aggregate impacts on agricultural production as well as the spill-over effect of this on the non-agricultural sector and for overall Irish GDP, we evaluate the effects for different types of households. In order to capture economy-wide impacts of the policy reform, a CGE model was formulated and implemented using a social accounting matrix constructed for Ireland for the year 2005. Household effects are captured using representative households. The simulation results suggest a positive impact on the Irish economy as well as on the representative households. Many agricultural sectors contract in the process but a more efficient reallocation of resources into manufacturing and services sectors more than compensates those losses.Trade policy, CAP reform, CGE model, Macro and welfare effects, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, D58, I3,

Brand Information Mitigating Negative Shocks on Animal Welfare: Is It More Effective to “Distract†Consumers or Make Them Aware?

To create and sustain a competitive advantage in markets that increasingly value animal welfare attributes, meat companies need to meet public and private production standards while communicating to final consumers through their brands. Data are collected from a representative sample of 460 U.S. residents through an on-line experiment on McDonald’s chicken breast sandwiches and analyzed with Latent Growth Modeling. This study assesses which content of positive brand information effectively mitigates the risk of negative information shocks on animal welfare. On average, brand information has the same positive impact on consumers’ beliefs and attitudes, regardless of whether it is related or unrelated to animal welfare. However, there is strong market segmentation in terms of consumers’ response when exposed to brand information, suggesting that brand managers would benefit from tailoring brand information according to consumers’ age, education, gender and income.animal welfare, brand, information, consumer behavior, multivariate statistics, Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries, Q1,

Regional Differences in Food Consumption in Urban Mozambique: A Censored Demand System Approach

A nationwide household survey for Mozambique is used to estimate a large censored food demand system with 12 food groups for the sample of urban households. Using the translog indirect utility approach, the censored nature of the data is addressed by estimating a system of Tobit equations with a recently suggested quasi maximum likelihood estimator. Augmenting the system with demographic and geographical variables in a theoretically consistent way, I find that differences in elasticities between regions are significant. The results show that regional variation has to be taken into account when evaluating policies or employing CGE models. Further, the approach employed here can be applied to a number of developing countries with varying geographic conditions.censored demand system; elasticities; Mozambique; food demand; regional differences