The Emergence of Consensus: a primer

The origin of population-scale coordination has puzzled philosophers and scientists for centuries. Recently, game theory, evolutionary approaches and complex systems science have provided quantitative insights on the mechanisms of social consensus. This paper overviews the main dimensions over which the debate has unfolded and discusses some representative results, with a focus on those situations in which consensus emerges `spontaneously' in absence of centralised institutions. Covered topics include the macroscopic consequences of the different microscopic rules of behavioural contagion, the role of social networks, and the mechanisms that prevent the formation of a consensus or alter it after it has emerged. Special attention is devoted to the recent wave of experiments on the emergence of consensus in social systems

Lack of consensus in social systems

We propose an exactly solvable model for the dynamics of voters in a two-party system. The opinion formation process is modeled on a random network of agents. The dynamical nature of interpersonal relations is also reflected in the model, as the connections in the network evolve with the dynamics of the voters. In the infinite time limit, an exact solution predicts the emergence of consensus, for arbitrary initial conditions. However, before consensus is reached, two different metastable states can persist for exponentially long times. One state reflects a perfect balancing of opinions, the other reflects a completely static situation. An estimate of the associated lifetimes suggests that lack of consensus is typical for large systems.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Detecting consensus emergence in organizational multilevel data : power simulations

Theories suggest that groups within organizations often develop shared values, beliefs, affect, behaviors, or agreed-on routines; however, researchers rarely study predictors of consensus emergence over time. Recently, a multilevel-methods approach for detecting and studying emergence in organizational field data has been described. This approach-the consensus emergence model-builds on an extended three-level multilevel model. Researchers planning future studies based on the consensus emergence model need to consider (a) sample size characteristics required to detect emergence effects with satisfactory statistical power and (b) how the distribution of the overall sample size across the levels of the multilevel model influences power. We systematically address both issues by conducting a power simulation for detecting main and moderating effects involving consensus emergence under a variety of typical research scenarios and provide an R-based tool that readers can use to estimate power. Our discussion focuses on the future use and development of multilevel methods for studying emergence in organizational research

MPs' attitudes to welfare: a new consensus?

The post-war ‘consensus’ on welfare was based largely in the perceived agreement of leading politicians of Conservative and Labour parties on the role of the mixed economy and the welfare state. However, from the late 1970s economic and demographic pressures and ideological challenges, particularly from the New Right, led to cuts in spending on welfare, increased private involvement and an emphasis on more individualistic and selectivist approaches to provision. Recently some scholars have begun to discuss the emergence of a ‘new liberal consensus’ around welfare provision. Drawing upon interviews with ten per cent of the House of Commons, this article examines the extent to which a new political consensus upon welfare can be identified. In addition to analysing responses to questions upon welfare issues it considers the extent to which MPs themselves believe there to be some degree of consensus in approaches to welfare. It also considers whether any consensus exists merely in the political language used in relation to welfare issues, or whether there is a more substantive convergence

Detecting Consensus Emergence in Organizational Multilevel Data: Power Simulations

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from SAGE Publications via the DOI in this recordTheories suggest that groups within organizations often develop shared values, beliefs, affect, behaviors or agreed-upon routines; however, researchers rarely study predictors of consensus emergence over time. Recently, a multilevel-methods approach for detecting and studying emergence in organizational field data has been described. This approach—the consensus emergence model—builds on an extended three-level multilevel model. Researchers planning future studies based on the consensus emergence model need to consider (a) sample size characteristics required to detect emergence effects with satisfactory statistical power, and (b) how the distribution of the overall sample size across the levels of the multilevel model influences power. We systematically address both issues by conducting a power simulation for detecting main and moderating effects involving consensus emergence under a variety of typical research scenarios, and provide an R-based tool that readers can use to estimate power. Our discussion focuses on the future use and development of multilevel methods for studying emergence in organizational research

Palliative and End-of-Life Care: Precepts and Ethics for the Orthopaedic Population

Since the emergence of reports such as the National Consensus Project for Quality Palliative Care (2013) and the National Association of Orthopaedic Nurses Palliative Care Consensus Document (2005), there continues to be a growing recognition of the multiple adverse effects of serious illness and chronic conditions, as well as the potential benefits of receiving palliative or end-of-life care. As modern technology expands its ability to support life, ethical dilemmas may be encountered in the provision of palliative or end-of-life care. Through integration of the precepts of palliative care and consideration of the relevant ethical principles, orthopaedic nurses may best meet their patients\u27 comprehensive needs at an exceedingly difficult time