An investigation into machine learning approaches for forecasting spatio-temporal demand in ride-hailing service

In this paper, we present machine learning approaches for characterizing and forecasting the short-term demand for on-demand ride-hailing services. We propose the spatio-temporal estimation of the demand that is a function of variable effects related to traffic, pricing and weather conditions. With respect to the methodology, a single decision tree, bootstrap-aggregated (bagged) decision trees, random forest, boosted decision trees, and artificial neural network for regression have been adapted and systematically compared using various statistics, e.g. R-square, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and slope. To better assess the quality of the models, they have been tested on a real case study using the data of DiDi Chuxing, the main on-demand ride hailing service provider in China. In the current study, 199,584 time-slots describing the spatio-temporal ride-hailing demand has been extracted with an aggregated-time interval of 10 mins. All the methods are trained and validated on the basis of two independent samples from this dataset. The results revealed that boosted decision trees provide the best prediction accuracy (RMSE=16.41), while avoiding the risk of over-fitting, followed by artificial neural network (20.09), random forest (23.50), bagged decision trees (24.29) and single decision tree (33.55).Comment: Currently under review for journal publicatio

Enhancing Decision Tree based Interpretation of Deep Neural Networks through L1-Orthogonal Regularization

One obstacle that so far prevents the introduction of machine learning models primarily in critical areas is the lack of explainability. In this work, a practicable approach of gaining explainability of deep artificial neural networks (NN) using an interpretable surrogate model based on decision trees is presented. Simply fitting a decision tree to a trained NN usually leads to unsatisfactory results in terms of accuracy and fidelity. Using L1-orthogonal regularization during training, however, preserves the accuracy of the NN, while it can be closely approximated by small decision trees. Tests with different data sets confirm that L1-orthogonal regularization yields models of lower complexity and at the same time higher fidelity compared to other regularizers.Comment: 8 pages, 18th IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications (ICMLA) 201

Building Combined Classifiers

This chapter covers different approaches that may be taken when building an ensemble method, through studying specific examples of each approach from research conducted by the authors. A method called Negative Correlation Learning illustrates a decision level combination approach with individual classifiers trained co-operatively. The Model level combination paradigm is illustrated via a tree combination method. Finally, another variant of the decision level paradigm, with individuals trained independently instead of co-operatively, is discussed as applied to churn prediction in the telecommunications industry

Measurement of body temperature and heart rate for the development of healthcare system using IOT platform

Health can be define as a state of complete mental, physical and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity according to the World Health Organization (WHO) [1]. Having a healthy body is the greatest blessing of life, hence healthcare is required to maintain or improve the health since the healthcare is the maintenance or improvement of health through the diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of injury, disease, illness, and other mental and physical impairments in human beings. The novel paradigm of Internet of Things (IoT) has the potential to transform modern healthcare and improve the well-being of entire society [2]. IoT is a concept aims to connec

Fitting Prediction Rule Ensembles with R Package pre

Prediction rule ensembles (PREs) are sparse collections of rules, offering highly interpretable regression and classification models. This paper presents the R package pre, which derives PREs through the methodology of Friedman and Popescu (2008). The implementation and functionality of package pre is described and illustrated through application on a dataset on the prediction of depression. Furthermore, accuracy and sparsity of PREs is compared with that of single trees, random forest and lasso regression in four benchmark datasets. Results indicate that pre derives ensembles with predictive accuracy comparable to that of random forests, while using a smaller number of variables for prediction

Types of cost in inductive concept learning

Inductive concept learning is the task of learning to assign cases to a discrete set of classes. In real-world applications of concept learning, there are many different types of cost involved. The majority of the machine learning literature ignores all types of cost (unless accuracy is interpreted as a type of cost measure). A few papers have investigated the cost of misclassification errors. Very few papers have examined the many other types of cost. In this paper, we attempt to create a taxonomy of the different types of cost that are involved in inductive concept learning. This taxonomy may help to organize the literature on cost-sensitive learning. We hope that it will inspire researchers to investigate all types of cost in inductive concept learning in more depth