Strategic decision modeling in Brownfield redevelopment

De ruimtelijke planning en het herstructureringsproces van bedrijventerreinen zijn onlangs aan enkele belangrijke veranderingen onderhevig geweest. Ten eerste is de omvang van de ruimtelijke herstructureringsprojecten toegenomen. Ten tweede zijn de traditionele lineaire planningsprocessen vervangen door publiek-private samenwerkingen waarbinnen de rollen en de onderlinge afhankelijkheid van ontwikkelaars en overheidsorganen gewijzigd zijn. Binnen deze nieuwe kaders is de herstructurering van brownfields veelal problematisch; er treden veel conflicten op tijdens planprocessen. In dit onderzoek wordt beargumenteerd dat het gebrek aan consensus onder betrokken stakeholders een belangrijke oorzaak is van de optredende stagnatie binnen brownfield herstructureringsprocessen. Het uiteindelijke doel van dit onderzoek is het voorspellen en analyseren van het optreden van conflicten in herstructureringsprocessen, alsmede het doen van aanbevelingen over optimale publiek-private samenwerkingsovereenkomsten voor de herstructurering van brownfields. Om dit doel te verwezenlijken is er een onderzoekskader opgesteld, welke is gericht op het specificeren en analyseren van: (1) de attributen van een brownfield; (2) de voorkeuren van de groepen van actoren; en (3) de kenmerken in het onderhandelingsproces tussen de twee groepen van actoren. Voor het verzamelen van noodzakelijke data zijn er twee online enquêtes gehouden. In beide gevallen waren de geënquêteerden experts binnen een specifieke tak van gebiedsontwikkeling. Voor dit onderzoek zijn verschillende methoden gebruikt. Ten eerste is de Fuzzy Delphi methode gebruikt om brownfield attributen te structureren en te prioriteren. Stated Choice experimenten verschaffen vervolgens het inzicht in de individuele voorkeuren van verschillende actor-groepen. Deze resulterende nutsfuncties zijn uiteindelijk gebruikt als de input voor de analyse van multi-actor besluitvorming, waarvoor de methode Game Theory is gebruikt. De resultaten van het besluitvormingsproces hangen niet alleen af van een individuele keuze maar ze bevatten ook de invloed van de keuzes van een tegenspeler. Het vinden van mogelijke consensusrijke strategieën in de onderhandelingen over de herstructurering van brownfields is het doel van deze laatste stap. Tot op heden is er weinig onderzoek verricht naar de ontwikkeling van besluitvormingsmodellen waarin systematisch de kenmerken van de brownfieldterreinen en de herstructureringsplannen verbonden wordt met het gedrag van de betrokken actoren; een dergelijke verbinding kan inzicht geven in mogelijke bronnen van conflicten. Dit onderzoek draagt bij aan de ontwikkeling van modellen waarin de interactie tussen verschillende actoren binnen een complex probleemgebied wordt geanalyseerd. De resultaten van dit onderzoek ondersteunen besluitvormers en procesmanagers bij het vinden van een optimale overeenkomst in de publiek-private onderhandelingen omtrent de herstructurering van brownfields

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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Guidance on the integrated assessment of complex health technologies: the INTEGRATE-HTA model

Challenges in assessments of health technologies In recent years there have been major advances in the development of health technology assessment (HTA). However, HTA still has certain limitations when assessing technologies which are complex, i.e. consist of several interacting components, target different groups or organizational levels, have multiple and variable outcomes, and/or permit a certain degree of flexibility or tailoring (Craig et al., 2008), fi are context-dependent - current HTA usually focusses on the technology, not on the system within which it is used, fi perform differently depending on the way they are implemented, fi have different effects on different individuals. Furthermore, HTA usually assesses and appraises aspects side-by-side, while decision-making needs an integrated perspective on the value of a technology. In the EU-funded INTEGRATE-HTA project, we developed concepts and methods to deal with these challenges, which are described in six guidances. Because of the interactions, an integrated assessment needs to start from the beginning of the assessment. This guidance provides a systematic five-step-process for an integrated assessment of complex technologies (the INTEGRATE-HTA Model). Purpose and scope of the guidance The aim of the INTEGRATE-HTA project is to provide concepts and methods that enable a patient-centred, comprehensive, and integrated assessment of complex health technologies. The purpose of this guidance is to structure the overall HTA-process. The INTEGRATE-HTA Model outlines an integrated scoping process, a coordinated application of assessment methods for different aspects and an integrated and structured decision-making process. It is intended for HTA agencies, HTA researchers and those engaged in the evaluation of complex health technologies. As it links the assessment to the decision-making process, it also addresses HTA commissioners and other stakeholders using or planning HTAs. While all technologies are arguably complex, some are more complex than others. Applying this guidance might lead to a more thorough and therefore more time-consuming process. Depending on the degree of complexity, one might choose to follow the whole process as described in this guidance, or only focus on certain steps. The guidance provides an operational definition to assess the complexity of technologies which can be used to identify specific aspects that will need more attention than others. What the guidance does not provide is a post-hoc solution for assessments that have already been completed. | 6 Development of the guidance The INTEGRATE-HTA Model presented in this guidance was developed based on a systematic literature search on approaches for integration, on the experiences of traditional HTAs, as well as on the other methodological guidances developed in the INTEGRATE-HTA project. It was tested in a case study on palliative care and iteratively revised during the practical application. The guidance was again revised after internal and external peer-review. Application of this guidance For a comprehensive integrated assessment of a complex technology, we developed a five-step process, the INTEGRATE-HTA model. In Step 1, the HTA objective and the technology are defined with the support from a panel of stakeholders. An initial logic model is developed in Step 2. The initial logic model provides a structured overview of the technology, the context, implementation issues, and relevant patient groups. It then frames the assessment of the effectiveness, as well as economic, ethical, legal, and socio-cultural aspects in Step 3. In Step 4, a graphical overview of the assessment results, structured by the logic model, is provided. Step 5 is a structured decision-making process informed by the HTA (and is thus not formally part of the HTA, but follows it). fi Step 1: In step 1, the technology under assessment and the objective of the HTA are defined. Especially for complex technologies, such as palliative care, the definition of the technology alone is a challenge that must not be underestimated. It is recommended to do this based on a tentative literature review and with the support of stakeholder advisory panels (SAPs) which should comprise clinical experts, academics, patients, possibly their relatives and/or other caretakers, and the public. The setting of an objective considering all relevant aspects of complexity and structured by assessment criteria is important. The assessment criteria will usually reflect values of the stakeholders as well as the input from the theoretical, methodological and empirical literature. fi Step 2: In step 2, an initial logic model is developed (see Guidance on the use of logic models in health technology assessments of complex interventions). The model provides a structured overview on participants, interventions, comparators, and outcomes. Parallel to this, groups of patients that are distinguished by different preferences and treatment moderators (see Guidance for the assessment of treatment moderation and patients’ preferences) are identified. Specific context and implementation issues are also identified as part of the initial logic model (see Guidance for the Assessment of Context and Implementation in Health Technology Assessments (HTA) and Systematic Reviews of Complex Interventions). The product of this step is the logic model as a graphical representation of all aspects and their interactions that are relevant for the assessment of the complex technology. fi Step 3: In step 3, the logic model serves as a conceptual framework that guides the evidence assessment. Depending on the specific aspect (e.g. effectiveness, economic, ethical, socio-cultural, or legal aspects) different methods are available for the assessment (see Guidance for assessing effectiveness, economic aspects, ethical aspects, socio-cultural aspects and legal aspects in complex technologies). The outputs of step 3 are evidence reports and standardized evidence summaries for each assessment aspect (e.g. report on economics, report on ethical aspects, etc.). fi Step 4: In step 4, the assessment results of step 3 are structured using the logic model developed in step 2. Whereas the initial logic model in step 2 specifies what evidence is relevant, the extended logic model to assist decision-making in step 4 visualizes the assessment results as well as the interaction with respect to the HTA objectives. It also allows for the consideration of different scenarios depending on the variation in context, implementation and patient characteristics. 7 | fi Step 5: Step 5 involves a structured decision-making process and is not an integral part of the HTA in the narrow sense. Decision-making can be supported by applying quantitative e.g. MCDA- (Multi-criteria decision analysis) or qualitative decision support tools. Flexibility in the application of these tools by the decision committee is crucial, taking different decision settings and evidence needs into consideration. Conclusions In current HTA, different aspects are usually assessed and presented independent of each other. Context, implementation issues and patient characteristics are rarely considered. The INTEGRATE-HTA Model enables a coordinated assessment of all these aspects and addresses their interdependencies. The perspective of stakeholders such as patients and professionals with their values and preferences is integrated in the INTEGRATE-HTA Model to obtain HTA results that are meaningful for all relevant stakeholders. Finally, health policy makers obtain an integrated perspective of the assessment results to achieve fair and legitimate conclusions at the end of the HTA process. The application of the model will usually require more time and resources than traditional HTA. An initial assessment of the degree and the character of complexity of a technology might be helpful to decide whether or not the whole process or only specific elements will be applied

Impacts of project attributes on investment preferences : an empirical cluster analysis of energy conservation investment attitudes

Investment attitude refers to the way managements of firms value attributes of investmentproposals and weigh them in their final appraisal. It seems that among firms in the Netherlands an investment attitude exists that hinders theimplementation of energy conservation projects. Using paired comparison results from a survey on energy conservation, this paper evaluates investmentpreferences of firms by applying a Bradley-Terry model. The impact of project attributes on the investment preference is analysed in order to disclosethe underlying investment attitude and to identify barriers to the advance of energy conservation technologies. A latent class approach is used todetect clusters of firms for which specific barners play a dominant role

Role for Interactive Tradespace Exploration in Multi-Stakeholder Negotiations

The significant time, effort, and resource expenditures needed to design and develop aerospace systems motivate on-going research into developing methods for generating, evaluating, and selecting candidate system solutions that can deliver more benefit for a given cost. Compounding the problem is the multiplicity of perspectives of the many stakeholders for such systems, altering the meaning of “benefit” and “cost” depending on the stakeholder considered. Tradespace exploration techniques have been used in the past to generate large datasets in order to gain insights into design-value, cost-benefit tradeoffs for complex aerospace systems. Using interactive tradespace exploration to support multi-stakeholder negotiations can reveal these tradeoffs not only for individuals, but also across a group. A method is introduced and applied to two aerospace cases in order to explore the potential for interactive tradespace exploration to support stakeholder negotiations. Preliminary results indicate the method to be a rapid and beneficial technique, which generated compromise alternatives, guided the elicitation of previously unarticulated information, and resulted in increased confidence and solution buy-in of participating stakeholders.Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiativ