Analysis of Volatility and Turnover on the Disposition Effect in the Indonesian Stock Exchange

This study aims to analyse the influence of market turnover and volatility of the company on disposition effect. Disposition effect is the tendency of investors to quickly sell their shares to gain benefit (winner stock) and the tendency of investors to hold the stocks too long, which results in a loss (losing stocks). Identifying the causes of the disposition effect is important to determine whether the disposition effect makes the market inefficient. The population in this study is comprised of the companies registered in the LQ45 index in the Indonesian Stock Exchange during the period 2010–2015. The analytical method used is the linear regression analysis. Turnover has a positive and insignificant effect, while the volatility variable has a positive and significant effect on the behaviour of the disposition effect in Indonesia’s stock market. The characteristics of investors who perform disposition measures are likely to be risk averse if they are in a position of being profitable and risk-taking while in a position of loss. This is evident during the high volatility of the stock market. Large fluctuations such as significant price increases and drastic price reductions make investors in Indonesia take the right positioning of the right time in realizing profits and holding back losses. In this situation, the behaviour of investors who display the disposition effect in Indonesia’s stock exchange can be found.     Keywords: behavioural finance, disposition effect, turnover, volatilit

Essays On Asset Pricing Models: Theories And Empirical Tests

My dissertation contains three chapters. Chapter one proposes a nonparametric method to evaluate the performance of a conditional factor model in explaining the cross section of stock returns. There are two tests: one is based on the individual pricing error of a conditional model and the other is based on the average pricing error. Empirical results show that for valueweighted portfolios, the conditional CAPM explains none of the asset-pricing anomalies, while the conditional Fama-French three-factor model is able to account for the size effect, and it also helps to explain the value effect and the momentum effect. From a statistical point of view, a conditional model always beats a conditional one because it is closer to the true data-generating process. Chapter two proposes a general equilibrium model to study the implications of prospect theory for individual trading, security prices and trading volume. Its main finding is that different components of prospect theory make different predictions. The concavity/convexity of the value function drives a disposition effect, which in turn leads to momentum in the cross-section of stock returns and a positive correlation between returns and volumes. On the other hand, loss aversion predicts exactly the opposite, namely a reversed disposition effect and reversal in the cross-section of stock returns, as well as a negative correlation between returns and volumes. In a calibrated economy, when prospect theory preference parameters are set at the values estimated by the previous studies, our model can generate price momentum of up to 7% on an annual basis. Chapter three studies the role of aggregate dividend volatility in asset prices. In the model, narrow-framing investors are loss averse over fluctuations in the value of their financial wealth. Persistent dividend volatility indicates persistent fluctuation in their financial wealth and makes stocks undesirable. It helps to explain the salient feature of the stock market including the high mean, excess volatility, and predictability of stock returns while maintaining a low and stable risk-free rate. Consistent with the data, stock returns have a low correlation with consumption growth, and Sharpe ratios are time-varying

Disposition Effect on Two Classical Expected Utility Models:\ud Exponential and Power

A disposition effect is the observation that investors tend to sell winning stocks too early and hold losing stocks too long. In this paper, we investigate whether expected utility theory explains the disposition effect. We implement two models of expected utility theory: exponential and power. We show that for reasonable parameter values the disposition effect can be explained by expected utility theory

Disposition Matters: Volume, Volatility and Price Impact of a Behavioral Bias

In this paper, we estimate the behavioral component of the Grinblatt and Han (2002) model and derive several testable implications about the expected relationship between the preponderance of disposition-prone investors in a market and volume, volatility and stock returns. To do this, we use a large sample of individual accounts over a six-year period in the 1990's in order to identify investors who are subject to the disposition effect. We then use their trading behavior to construct behavioral factors. We show that when the fraction of irrational' investor purchases in a stock increases, the unexplained portion of the market price of the stock decreases. We further show that statistical exposure to a disposition factor explains cross-sectional differences in daily returns, controlling for a host of other factors and characteristics. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that trade between disposition-prone investors and their counter-parties impacts relative prices.

Why have asset price properties changed so little in 200 years

We first review empirical evidence that asset prices have had episodes of large fluctuations and been inefficient for at least 200 years. We briefly review recent theoretical results as well as the neurological basis of trend following and finally argue that these asset price properties can be attributed to two fundamental mechanisms that have not changed for many centuries: an innate preference for trend following and the collective tendency to exploit as much as possible detectable price arbitrage, which leads to destabilizing feedback loops.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figure

Market Wide Liquidity Instability in Business Cycles

This paper deals with an existing question; does market liquidity disequilibrium leads to stock market bubble burst? Contemporary research has shown that liquidity is the key driving force behind capital market growth and its sustenance. Stock markets usually react to changes in market-wide liquidity, whose supply-demand cycle fluctuates with investor behavior actions. Market illiquidity due to supply shocks or sudden redemption, does exert strain on the financial markets as of when if too much untenable, lead to market crash. In this paper, we investigate how market-wide fluctuations in liquidity result in return volatilities and stock market return asymmetries as also to prove the notion whether liquidity per se, is the sole driver of stock market growth.Liquidity, business cycles, investor behavior, returns asymmetry