Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5C

Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5C suggest that direct carbon emissions in the buildings sector should decrease to almost zero by 2050, but leave unanswered the question how this could be achieved by real-world policies. We take a modelling-based approach for simulating which policy measures could induce an almost-complete decarbonisation of residential heating, the by far largest source of direct emissions in residential buildings. Under which assumptions is it possible, and how long would it take? Policy effectiveness highly depends on behavioural decision- making by households, especially in a context of deep decarbonisation and rapid transformation. We therefore use the non-equilibrium bottom-up model FTT:Heat to simulate policies for a transition towards low-carbon heating in a context of inertia and bounded rationality, focusing on the uptake of heating technologies. Results indicate that the near-zero decarbonisation is achievable by 2050, but requires substantial policy efforts. Policy mixes are projected to be more effective and robust for driving the market of efficient low-carbon technologies, compared to the reliance on a carbon tax as the only policy instrument. In combination with subsidies for renewables, near-complete decarbonisation could be achieved with a residential carbon tax of 50-200Euro/tCO2. The policy-induced technology transition would increase average heating costs faced by households initially, but could also lead to cost reductions in most world regions in the medium term. Model projections illustrate the uncertainty that is attached to household behaviour for prematurely replacing heating systems

Impact of CARB\u27s Tailpipe Emission Standard Policy on CO2 Reduction among the US States

U.S.Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set the nationwide emission standard policy, but each state in the U.S. has an option to follow the higher emission standard policy set by CARB (California Air Resources Board) in 2004. There are 14 “CARB states” that follow California’s more restrictive standards. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of CARB’s tailpipe emission standard policy. Using the panel dataset for 49 U.S. states over a 28-year study period (1987–2015), this paper found the long-term policy effect in reducing CO2 emission from CARB’s tailpipe standard, and its long-run effect is 5.4 times higher than the short-run effect. The equivalent policy effect of the CARB emission standard in CO2 reduction can be achieved by raising gasoline price by 145.43%. Also, if 26.0% of petroleum consumed for transportation is substituted by alternative clean fuels (natural gas or electricity), it will have a comparable policy effect in CO2 reduction. Findings in this study support to continue the collaborative efforts among the EPA, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), and California in order to achieve the CO2 reduction goal set by CARB and adopted by the EPA in 2012. The packaged policy approach rooted in persistent public and political support is necessary for successful policy implementation

Taking Action on Climate Change

Discusses the complexity of the climate change problem, the policy and legislation needed to create change, and the increasingly important role that philanthropy can play in this area

Assessing the effects of technological progress on energy efficiency in the construction industry: A case of China

Energy-saving technologies in buildings have received great attention from energy efficiency researchers in the construction sector. Traditional research tends to focus on the energy used during building operation and in construction materials production, but it usually neglects the energy consumed in the building construction process. Very few studies have explored the impacts of technological progress on energy efficiency in the construction industry. This paper presents a model of the building construction process based on Cobb-Douglas production function. The model estimates the effects of technological progress on energy efficiency with the objective to examine the role that technological progress plays in energy savings in China's construction industry. The modeling results indicated that technological progress improved energy efficiency by an average of 7.1% per year from 1997 to 2014. Furthermore, three main technological progress factors (the efficiency of machinery and equipment, the proportion change of the energy structure, and research and development investment) were selected to analyze their effects on energy efficiency improvement. These positive effects were verified, and results show the effects of first two factors are significant. Finally, recommendations for promoting energy efficiency in the construction industry are proposed

China’s Energy Economy: A Survey of the Literature

This paper reviews literature on China’s energy economics, focusing especially on: i) the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, ii) China’s changing energy intensity, iii) energy demand and energy -capital and -labor substitution, iv) the emergence of energy markets in China, vi) and policy reforms in the energy industry. After reviewing the literature, the study presents the main findings and suggests some topics for further study.China; Energy; Literature

The investments in renewable energy sources: do low carbon economies better invest in green technologies?

The aim of this study is to analyse the driving of investment in renewable energy sources in low carbon and high carbon economies. To address these issues, a dynamic panel analysis of the renewable investment in a sample of 29 countries was proposed. Results demonstrate that the dynamic of investments in renewable sources is similar in the two panels, and depends by nuclear power generation, GDP and technological efficiency. Results show that countries try to reduce their environmental footprint, decreasing the CO2 intensity . Based on the estimation results, we think that energy sustainability passes through the use of renewable resources that can complement the nuclear technology on condition that both exceed their limits.CO2 intensity; Dynamic model; Nuclear Energy

Competing Dimensions of Energy Security: An International Perspective

How well are industrialized nations doing in terms of their energy security? Without a standardized set of metrics, it is difficult to determine the extent that countries are properly responding to the emerging energy security challenges related to climate change, growing dependence on fossil fuels, population growth and economic development. In response, we propose the creation of an Energy Security Index to inform policymakers, investors and analysts about the status of energy conditions. Using the United States and 21 other member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) as an example, and looking at energy security from 1970 to 2007, our index shows that only four countries¡ªBelgium, Denmark, Japan, and the United Kingdom¡ªhave made progress on multiple dimensions of the energy security problem. The remaining 18 have either made no improvement or are less secure. To make this argument, the first section of the article surveys the scholarly literature on energy security from 2003 to 2008 and argues that an index should address accessibility, affordability, efficiency, and environmental stewardship. Because each of these four components is multidimensional, the second section discusses ten metrics that comprise an Energy Security Index: oil import dependence, percentage of alternative transport fuels, on-road fuel economy for passenger vehicles, energy intensity, natural gas import dependence, electricity prices, gasoline prices, sulfur dioxide emissions, and carbon dioxide emissions. The third section analyzes the relative performance of four countries: Denmark (the top performer), Japan (which performed well), the United States (which performed poorly), and Spain (the worst performer). The article concludes by offering implications for policy. Conflicts between energy security criteria mean that advancement along any one dimension can undermine progress on another dimension. By focusing on a 10-point index, public policy can better illuminate such tradeoffs and can identify compensating policies

China's energy consumption in the building sector: A Statistical Yearbook-Energy Balance Sheet based splitting method

China's energy consumption in the building sector (BEC) is not counted as a separate type of energy consumption, but divided and mixed in other sectors in China's statistical system. This led to the lack of historical data on China's BEC. Moreover, previous researches' shortages such as unsystematic research on BEC, various estimation methods with complex calculation process, and difficulties in data acquisition resulted in “heterogeneous” of current BEC in China. Aiming to these deficiencies, this study proposes a set of China building energy consumption calculation method (CBECM) by splitting out the building related energy consumption mixed in other sectors in the composition of China Statistical Yearbook-Energy Balance Sheet. Then, China's BEC from 2000 to 2014 are estimated using CBECM and compared with other studies. Results show that, from 2000 to 2014, China's BEC increased 1.7 times, rising from 301 to 814 million tons of standard coal consumed, with the BEC percentage of total energy consumption stayed relatively stable between 17.7% and 20.3%. By comparison, we find that our results are reliable and the CBECM has the following advantages over other methods: data source is authoritative, calculation process is concise, and it is easy to obtain time series data on BEC etc. The CBECM is particularly suitable for the provincial government to calculate the local BEC, even in the circumstance with statistical yearbook available only

Effect factors of part-load performance for various Organic Rankine cycles using in engine waste heat recovery

The Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) is regarded as one of the most promising waste heat recovery technologies for electricity generation engines. Since the engine usually operates under different working conditions, it is important to research the part-load performance of the ORC. In order to reveal the effect factors of part-load performance, four different forms of ORCs are compared in the study with dynamic math models established in SIMULINK. They are the ORC applying low temperature working fluid R245fa with a medium heat transfer cycle, the ORCs with high temperature working fluid toluene heated directly by exhaust condensing at low pressure and high pressure, and the double-stage ORC. It is regarded that the more slowly the system output power decreases, the better part-load performance it has. Based on a comparison among the four systems, the effects of evaporating pressure, condensing condition, working fluid, and system structure on part-load performance are revealed in the work. Further, it is found that the system which best matches with the heat source not only performs well under the design conditions, but also has excellent part-load performance

The Weight of Economic Growth and Urbanization on Electricity Demand in UAE

This study aims to explore the relationship between economic growth, urbanization, financial development and electricity consumption in case of United Arab Emirates. The study covers the time period of 1975-2011. We have applied the ARDL bounds testing to examine long run relationship between the variables in the presence of structural breaks. The VECM Granger causality is applied to investigate the direction of causal relationship between the variables. Our empirical exercise found cointegration between the series in case of United Arab Emirates. Further, results reveal that inverted U-shaped relationship is found between economic growth and electricity consumption i.e. economic growth raises electricity consumption initially and declines it after a threshold level of income per capita. Financial development adds in electricity consumption. The relationship between urbanization and electricity consumption is also inverted U-shaped. This implies that urbanization increases electricity consumption initially and after a threshold level of urbanization, electricity demand falls. The causality analysis finds feedback hypothesis between economic growth and electricity consumption i.e. economic growth and electricity consumption are interdependent. The bidirectional causality is found between financial development and electricity consumption. Economic growth and urbanization Granger cause each other. The feedback hypothesis is also found between urbanization and financial development, financial development and economic growth and same is true for electricity consumption and urbanization.